NBA Player Props and Best Bets: Fade Shai, Back Ant and this Playoff SGP

The Timberwolves vs. Thunder Western Conference Finals could come to a close after Game 5 today, and I have the best player props for the heavyweight showdown.

The Timberwolves dominated the Thunder on the stat sheet during Game 4, yet they wound up drawing the short end of the stick to fall into a 3-1 hole. They’ve proven to be extremely resilient, but they’re charged with accomplishing a feat only 13 teams in NBA history did.

The Thunder received elite performances from their stars, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Williams, and Chet Holmgren, in Game 4. They have all of the momentum and are back on their home court, where they’re 2-0 in the series.

Here are my top player prop picks and a same-game parlay for the Timberwolves vs. Thunder Game 5 matchup on Wednesday.

Best NBA Prop Bets for Wednesday, May 28

Chet Holmgren Under 15.5 Points

Holmgren was excellent in Game 4, scoring 21 points on 64.3 percent shooting from the field and 50 percent shooting from three. But while he took 17 and 14 shot attempts in Games 2 and 4, he only took nine and seven in Games 1 and 3, which matches the inconsistent motor he shows to the naked eye.

The bottom line here is that Holmgren does not do a great job of stacking performances, though it’s important to note that he averaged 15.0 points during the regular season and 16.1 during the playoffs. The Timberwolves still have tough defensive pieces and can make life difficult for their opponent, especially with their season depending on a win.

Isaiah Hartenstein Under 6.5 Points

Hartenstein only played 19 minutes in Game 3 and 16 minutes in Game 4, and he doesn’t look like he has a huge role in this series simply because of the way the matchups have played out. He went under this line in three straight games and only scored two points on one shot attempt in Game 4.

Hartenstein’s waning minutes are an indication that he should be fairly limited from a scoring perspective. He also is in no way a high-volume shooter and has largely been relegated to setting screens, handing the ball off, and rebounding.

Nickeil Alexander-Walker Over 1.5 Threes

Did you know that Alexander-Walker and Gilgeous-Alexander are cousins? Only joking, of course, but I am NOT joking about the Timberwolves’ guard’s upside in an elimination Game. He made at least two threes in every game of the series, shooting 48 percent on 6.3 attempts per game.

The ex-Virginia Tech Hokie just scored 23 points in 29 minutes off the bench on 60 percent shooting and should be in line to play heavy minutes, especially if the Wolves downsize and leave Rudy Gobert on the bench. He’s shooting the ball well and has the trust of his teammates along with confidence from his last appearance.

Anthony Edwards Over 7.5 Rebounds

One way for Edwards to involve himself in his team’s offense is to crash the glass and get ahead in transition. It should come as no surprise that his lowest scoring output of the series (16 points) also coincided with his worst rebounding effort (four boards), both of which took place in Game 4.

Edwards snatched nine rebounds in the first three games of the series and is still facing an OKC team that isn’t great on the glass. The Thunder got an uncharacteristic amount of offensive rebounds in Game 4, and I have no doubt that Chris Finch will have addressed that with his team.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Under 1.5 Threes

Gilgeous-Alexander, the MVP, split the over/under in this series but is only shooting 27.8 percent on 4.5 attempts per game. Most of his threes seem to come when he has a mismatch with Rudy Gobert or another big man, but it’s worth noting he only went over this line twice in eight home playoff games.

The Timberwolves know that they need to stop Gilgeous-Alexander to have a shot at winning. I don’t believe he’ll randomly transform into a high-volume three-point shooter, so I will be betting his under today in Game 5.

NBA Same-Game Parlay (+239) at FanDuel

-Minnesota Timberwolves at Oklahoma City Thunder (-8.5)

• Anthony Edwards 3+ threes: I can’t see Edwards not taking a bunch of shots with his season on the line, and he split the over/under in the series despite being somewhat passive.

• Jalen Williams 4+ rebounds: He went over in three of four games and six of his last seven overall, and the Thunder seem keen on playing a smaller lineup.

• Jaden McDaniels over 12.5 points: He went over in two of the last three games and has both shot the three well and successfully driven smaller defenders to the rim.

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