NBA Player Props and Best Bets: Kawhi Leonard, Amen Thompson & More Picks for Friday, Jan. 16

The end of another week has arrived, and I cooked up my final batch of NBA picks and player props for the day’s action.

LaMelo Ball dropped 30 points, 11 rebounds, and six assists as the Charlotte Hornets walloped the Los Angeles Lakers, while Anfernee Simons’ 39 points lifted the Boston Celtics past the Miami Heat.

There are six matchups on Friday, the best of which will see the Houston Rockets host the Minnesota Timberwolves in a battle between Western Conference contenders.

Here are my top NBA player prop picks and bets for Friday, Jan. 16.

Best NBA Prop Bets for Friday, January 16

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Zion Williamson Under 24.5 Points (-130) at FanDuel Sportsbook

The Indiana Pacers allowed the second-most points in the paint per game and the most over their last 10 contests, so I understand the hesitation. However, Williamson went under this line in five of his last seven games and still only plays about 30 minutes per night, which is below the usual standard for a superstar player.

The Pacers adjusted their lineup to give more burn to Pascal Siakam, Jay Huff, and Jarace Walker, which means they have more size, strength, and shot-blocking on the interior. Williams cruised over this line when the two teams met earlier this year, but I’m anticipating a reversal in fortune.

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Kawhi Leonard Under 26.5 Points (-118) at FanDuel Sportsbook

Leonard is in the middle of one of the best scoring stretches of his career, averaging 28.2 points per game and being .3 field goal percentage points and .1 three-point percentage points away from the 50/40/90 club. He also went over in back-to-back games and scored a career-high 55 points on Dec. 28.

I’m riding with Leonard’s under because, despite his hot hand, he’s facing a Toronto Raptors team that allows the seventh-fewest points per game and has tons of tall and long defenders to throw at him. He also cashed the under four times in four matchups with teams in the top 10 for points allowed per game in January, which gives me a solid baseline entering tonight.

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Nikola Vucevic Over 1.5 Threes (-128) at FanDuel Sportsbook

“Vucci Mane” went over this line in seven of his last 10 outings and shot a strong 37.8 percent from deep on 4.7 three-point attempts per game, his highest amount since he got to the Chicago Bulls in 2020-21. He was only 1-6 from three the last time he faced the Brooklyn Nets, but he had the volume to get over, which is critical.

The Nets allowed the fifth-fewest made threes per game, but that’s largely because they played at the fourth-slowest pace in the league. They’re just 24th in three-point percentage allowed (37.2), and since the Bulls should create more shots (fourth in place of play), Vucevic should have enough opportunities to go over this line.

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Amen Thompson Over 7.5 Rebounds (-130) at FanDuel Sportsbook

The ultra-athletic Thompson snatched 8.9 rebounds per game in January and went over this line in four of his last five games. Although he hasn’t faced the Timberwolves this season, he beat this line in three of four matchups against them during the 2024-25 campaign.

Thompson played at least 37 minutes in seven straight games, and at least 40 in his last three, in part because Tari Eason is unavailable to play. Anthony Edwards is out, limiting the Timberwolves’ rebounding on the wing, and the team was just about league-average in rebounds allowed per game over the last few weeks.

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Tre Johnson Over 2.5 Assists (+110) at FanDuel Sportsbook

Johnson, the sixth pick in the draft, went over this line in five of his last six games, despite averaging 1.9 assists per game for the year. One of the reasons for the recent uptick in productivity could be the trade that sent CJ McCollum to the Atlanta Hawks, creating more freedom for the young players on the roster.

The Sacramento Kings played better on defense recently, but they’re still just 24th in assists allowed per game for the year overall. Johnson has shown a willingness to swing the ball around the perimeter, and I am a fan of the odds for this line.

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