NBA Player Props and Best Bets: Chet Holmgren, Alex Sarr & More Picks for Wednesday, Feb. 11

The NBA is back to break the midweek monotony, and I’m here to share my best player prop picks for the day’s games.

Andrew Nembhard dropped 24 points and 10 assists to lead the Indiana Pacers past the New York Knicks and Jalen Brunson’s 40 points last night, while Victor Wembanyama embarrassed the Los Angeles Lakers with 40 points and 12 rebounds in a dominant win for the San Antonio Spurs.

All but two teams are in action tonight. The best early matchup will occur between the Detroit Pistons and the Toronto Raptors, and later in the evening, the Oklahoma City Thunder will visit the Phoenix Suns.

Here are my top NBA player prop picks and bets for Wednesday, Feb. 11.

Best NBA Prop Bets for Wednesday, February 11

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Chet Holmgren Under 18.5 Points (-130) at FanDuel Sportsbook

The upcoming All-Star center went under this line in five straight games and only took 10 field goals in four of those instances. He’s not a high-volume shooter or a high-volume scorer and isn’t in a position to shine as an individual with OKC’s drive-and-kick style that prioritizes sharing the ball (not counting Shai Gilgeous-Alexander).

Holmgren cashed the over in two of three matchups with the Suns, but he never took more than 13 field goal attempts in any of those games, meaning he’ll need to shoot the ball at an extremely high standard to log another over. The Suns also ranked eighth in points allowed per game over the last few weeks of action.

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Dylan Harper Under 10.5 Points (-104) at FanDuel Sportsbook

Harper, the second pick in the 2025 summer draft, went over this line in five of his last six games, although he went under in four of five immediately before that. He still isn’t playing a ton of minutes and is about to face a Golden State Warriors defense that ranked 10th in points allowed per game.

With Stephen Curry out of the lineup, the Warriors are going to have more minutes for better defensive pieces. The Dubs are also 18-9 on their home court, and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see them head into the All-Star break with a strong performance.

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CJ McCollum Under 2.5 Threes (-125) at FanDuel Sportsbook

McCollum, who is coming up on one month of playing with the Atlanta Hawks, went under this line in nine of 14 games in his new threads. He made five threes in his last outing, but he also hasn’t gone over this number in consecutive games since he was traded.

The Charlotte Hornets are the talk of the town for several reasons, but they ranked 10th in made threes allowed per game and seventh in three-point percentage allowed over their last 15 outings. They have enough size and length on the wings to stay with McCollum, just like they did when they played on Saturday.

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Alex Sarr Over 16.5 Points (-112) at FanDuel Sportsbook

Sarr went under this line in five straight games and didn’t score more than 12 points in three games in February. However, he scored 20 points on 58.8 percent shooting when he faced the Cleveland Cavaliers on Nov. 7, and he averaged 17.2 points per game for the year.

The Cavaliers have gotten better on defense as the season progressed, but Jarrett Allen isn’t a great interior defender, and Evan Mobley is out of the lineup. I envision a bounce-back for Sarr, who had some rough nights recently but has consistently shown his potential.

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Ace Bailey Over 14.5 Points (-102) at FanDuel Sportsbook

Bailey has been empowered, not limited, by the trade acquisition of Jaren Jackson Jr., as he scored 16 points and took 14 shots in his first game with his new teammate. He also went over this line in three of his last four games despite shooting the three fairly horribly during that stretch.

The Utah Jazz and Sacramento Kings ranked 30th and 25th in points allowed per game over the last few weeks, respectively. This should be a game that is played with pace and very little defense, which is why I feel that Bailey is in a strong position to cash the over.

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