Knicks vs. Celtics Prediction and Odds: Will Tatum-Less C’s Stay Alive?

The New York Knicks are up 3-1 and will look to win the decisive fourth game in their Eastern Conference semifinals matchup with the Boston Celtics on Wednesday. 

The matchup will take place just two days after Jayson Tatum ruptured his Achilles late in the fourth quarter of Game 4 in New York, which ended in a 121-113 win for the Knicks. The C’s went 8-2 without Tatum, though those games were against much easier competition.

The Knicks were built specifically to beat the Celtics, a task with which they failed all regular season but found success in the playoffs. They will advance to face the Indiana Pacers in the Eastern Conference Finals if they can avoid becoming the 14th team in NBA history to blow a 3-1 lead.

Here, I will break down the odds and share my favorite Knicks vs. Celtics betting picks for Game 5 on Wednesday.

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Knicks vs. Celtics Betting Odds for Wednesday, May 14

The Knicks are 47-44-1 (51.7 percent) against the spread, 24-22 (52.2 percent) ATS on the road, and 11-12 (47.8 percent) ATS as an underdog.

The Celtics are 42-48-1 (46.7 percent) ATS, 20-26 (43.5 percent) ATS at home, and 41-45-1 (47.7 percent) ATS as a favorite.

Odds from BetMGM Sportsbook. Use our BetMGM promo code WSNSPORTS to get up to $1,500 in bonus bets*.

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Knicks vs. Celtics Prediction

New York Knicks Preview

The Knicks are on the cusp of doing what they had been written off from, which is beating a top team in a seven-game series. They went 0-10 against the teams with the three best records, the Celtics, Cleveland Cavaliers, and Oklahoma City Thunder, during the regular season, leading many to believe that they were incapable of taking down the lead dogs.

The team’s unrelenting pressure and determination fit the mantra that Tom Thibodeau has preached since he arrived in town, but it’s also a relative surprise. New York was often outplayed by the Detroit Pistons in the first round and would’ve seen a Game 7 had the officials called a foul on a game-winning shot attempt at the death in Game 4.

The Knicks recovered from 20-point second-half deficits in both of the first two games of the series. They were completely outplayed in Game 3, and Game 4 was the first time they remained competitive from tip-off to the final buzzer. Jalen Brunson powered his team to victory with 18 points in the third quarter en route to 39 total and 12 assists, while four members of the starting five scored at least 20 points.

Despite leading 3-1, the Knicks have a -3.5 net rating in the series. They lost the battle of the boards but were more efficient shooting from the field, posting a 51.4 effective field goal percentage to Boston’s 50.3, and forced the normally sure-handed C’s into a 14.5 turnover percentage, 2.3 points above their season standard.

To nobody’s surprise, the Knicks’ bench has been thoroughly outscored in the series. That said, they haven’t necessarily been outplayed, largely due to the offensive rebounding boost provided by Mitchell Robinson.

The Knicks were 24-17 on the road during the regular season and 5-0 during the postseason. They beat the Celtics by three and one point in their road playoff matchups, Tatum playing in both of those.

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Boston Celtics Preview

The Celtics’ hopes of hanging another championship banner are, for all intents and purposes, dead. Their odds to win the NBA Finals are down to +3000, ahead of only the Golden State Warriors, who are also down 3-1.

However, the C’s still have +475 odds (17.4 percent implied chance) to win the conference semis. That’s a testament to their strength as a collective even without their best player.

Boston has had no trouble establishing double-digit leads in every game of the series. Their three-ball was falling in the last two games, making them an even more dangerous team than they are night to night.

Tatum’s imminent absence changes the calculus on Boston’s offense and how they have to be defended. 

Tatum is a punishing force against switches and is a threat to pull up from 30 feet or attack the rim on any possession. Without him on the floor, the Knicks can keep one of OG Anunoby or Mikal Bridges on Jaylen Brown full-time and put the other on the next offensive threat, most likely Derrick White.

The Knicks will also be able to show more help on drives to the hoop since they won’t have to close out to a shooter as capable as Tatum. That should make life difficult for the already-struggling Brown, who averaged 20.5 points on 37.7 percent shooting in the series.

Boston is going to need to lean into factors such as its pace of play and offensive rebounding to create points within the margins. Whether or not they will be able to implement such a drastic shift in approach without their leader remains to be seen.

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Knicks vs. Celtics Betting Pick

• Knicks vs. Celtics pick: Knicks +4.5 (-110) at BetMGM

In my Pacers-Cavaliers preview yesterday, I said that the underdog Pacers were a great example of simple math failing to adjust to what human eyes could see, which was that Indy was the better team. Not only did they cover the 7.5-point spread, but they won outright.

I feel that same way about Game 5 in this series. The Knicks have won in a variety of ways and just played their most complete game of the series, and they’re 5-0 on the road facing a team that just took the mental and physical blow of losing its franchise cornerstone. 

I’d look at the Knicks to not only cover the spread but win outright. Tail according to your level of risk acceptance.

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How to Watch Knicks vs. Celtics on 5/14/25

• When: Wednesday, May 14 @ 7:00 p.m. ET

• Where: TD Garden, Boston, MA

• TV: TNT/truTV/Max