Thunder vs. Nuggets Prediction and Odds: Can Jokic and Co. Avoid Elimination?

The Oklahoma City Thunder are up 3-2 and can secure a trip to the Western Conference Finals when they visit the Denver Nuggets for Game 6 on Thursday.

The Thunder flipped the script on the Nuggets, rallying from an eight-point deficit at the beginning of the fourth quarter to steal Game 5 and take the all-important series lead. Coach Mark Daigneault trusted his depth and did not play anyone 40 minutes, whereas Denver had three players log at least 42 minutes.

The Nuggets now have their backs against the wall, but that’s often where they’ve found success. They have dominated clutch moments, Game 5 notwithstanding, and have the best player in the world, Nikola Jokic, coming off a 44-point, 15-rebound masterclass. 

Here, I will break down the Thunder vs. Nuggets odds and share my favorite betting pick for Game 6 on Thursday.

For more betting insights, check out our daily NBA Player Props and Best Bets.

Thunder vs. Nuggets betting odds for Thursday, May 15

The Thunder are 56-32-4 (63.6 percent) against the spread, 25-17-2 (59.5 percent) ATS on the road, and 54-31-4 (63.5 percent) ATS as a favorite.

The Nuggets are 45-47-2 (48.9 percent) ATS, 22-24-1 (47.8 percent) ATS at home, and 17-12-1 (58.6 percent) ATS as an underdog.

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Thunder vs. Nuggets Prediction

Oklahoma City Thunder Preview

The key of OKC’s postseason was proving that they could overcome their youthful inexperience in high-leverage moments to knock out the best teams and players in the world. They’re not over the line just yet, but they’ve gone a long way toward answering those hesitations with their last two wins in the series.

The Thunder outscored the Nuggets by an incredible 54.2 points per 100 possessions in the last two fourth quarters, both of which culminated in wins. That’s after Denver overcame a fourth-quarter deficit in Games 1 and 3 and dominated them in overtime in Game 3.

The basketball world knew that the Thunder were a terrific team, having posted the highest average point differential in NBA history. Their ability to close games against elite competition significantly raises their threat profile and makes them look like the complete package.

OKC posted the best defensive rating (103.9) and net rating (+9.5) in the second round. They were dominated on the boards and only average in true shooting percentage, but they held Denver to the lowest true shooting percentage among second-round teams.

The Thunder also led the conference semifinals in points off turnovers and fastbreak points, and despite losing the offensive rebounding battle quite significantly, they averaged more second-chance points per game than their opponent.

One way to explain OKC’s recent late-game performances is the benefit of their depth. They can afford to rest their stars longer than Denver can, meaning that players such as Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jalen Williams have more energy when clutch shot-making is needed down the stretch.

The Thunder went 1-1 in Denver in this series and 1-1 during the regular season. They lost Game 3 113-104 and won Game 4 92-87 in a historically inefficient shooting night for both teams.

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Denver Nuggets Preview

Game 5 introduced both positive and negative developments to the Nuggets’ players, staff, and fans. For the first time in the series, they controlled most of the game and won the first three quarters to enter the final period with an eight-point lead.

That proved that they could play with the Thunder straight-up… but it also proved that they were susceptible to being walked down, which is exactly what happened as they lost the fourth quarter 34-19. All players not named Jokic combined to go 1-15 from the field in the quarter.

The Nuggets’ second round has been mired by uncharacteristically inefficient offense. That included Jokic, who had a three-game stretch where he shot 33.3 percent from the field.

Their significant lack of depth also forced them to turn to Julian Strawther, who had previously been out of the rotation, for a source of energy in Game 5. To his credit, Strawther did alright in his 10 minutes, but Denver still only got 10 total points from its reserves.

Let’s be clear: the Nuggets can play significantly better than they did in Game 5, which they still led entering the final period. Michael Porter Jr., Christian Braun, and Russell Westbrook scored 14 points on 5-26 (19.2 percent) shooting. Jamal Murray put up 28 points, but he was only 10-27 (37 percent) from the field.

Timely three-point shot making would complement Jokic’s efforts on the interior and the team’s dominant offensive rebounding. They shot 26-72 (36.1 percent) in their two wins and 39-128 (30.5 percent) in their losses. 

Interestingly, that also means they found more success attempting 36 threes per night as opposed to 42.7. That aligns with their regular-season performances, since they took the fewest threes per game (31.9) but ranked fifth in percentage (37.6).

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Thunder vs. Nuggets Betting Pick

• Thunder vs. Nuggets pick: Nuggets +4.5 (-105) at BetMGM

This series has been a joy to watch. The Thunder’s strength in numbers and defensive intensity have been a constant annoyance to a methodical Nuggets team, who have gotten different players going at different times but struggled to work as a cohesive unit in the majority of the games in the series. 

OKC deserves tremendous credit for what it has done to this Denver offense. At the same time, the Nuggets tend to execute their late-game offense better than anyone because of the brilliance of Jokic, who just produced his best game of the playoffs.

The Nuggets almost always win games they shouldn’t and step up when they absolutely need to. I don’t expect them to get closed out on their home floor considering how closely this series has been fought, so I’d back them on the spread.

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How to Watch Thunder vs. Nuggets on 5/15/25

• When: Thursday, May 15 @ 6:30/8:30 p.m. MT/ET

• Where: Ball Arena, Denver, CO

• TV: ESPN