Timberwolves vs. Thunder Prediction and Odds: Who Will Set the Tone for the Series?

The Minnesota Timberwolves will visit the Oklahoma City Thunder for Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals on Tuesday.

The series opener is just two days removed from the Thunder’s Game 7 victory over the Denver Nuggets, 125-93. Presumptive MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander led his team with 35 points on 63.2 percent shooting to send Nikola Jokic and company packing.

The Timberwolves have not been in action since the closeout Game 5 of their second-round series against the Golden State Warriors last Wednesday. It’s worth noting that after they beat the Los Angeles Lakers in the first round, also in five games, they came out lackadaisical and rusty, leading to their only loss of the series in Game 1.

Here, I will break down the betting odds and share my favorite Timberwolves vs. Thunder picks for the Western Conference Finals on Tuesday.

For more betting insights, check out our daily NBA Player Props and Best Bets.

Timberwolves vs. Thunder Betting Odds for Tuesday, May 20

The Timberwolves are 46-45-1 (50.6 percent) against the spread, 25-21 (54.4 percent) ATS on the road, and 14-7-1 (66.7 percent) ATS as an underdog. They’re also 7-3 (70 percent) ATS in the playoffs and went 3-1 (75 percent) ATS against the Thunder during the regular season.

The Thunder are 57-33-4 (63.3 percent) ATS, 31-14-2 (68.9 percent) ATS at home, and 55-32-4 (63.2 percent) ATS as a favorite. They’re 4-7 (44.4 percent) ATS in the playoffs and 1-3 (25 percent) ATS against the Wolves.

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Timberwolves vs. Thunder Prediction

Minnesota Timberwolves Preview

The Western Conference Finals is becoming business as usual for the Wolves, who fell to the Dallas Mavericks in six games in the same round one year ago.

The retooled version of this roster, featuring Julius Randle and Donte DiVincenzo in place of Karl-Anthony Towns, is playing its best brand of basketball at the perfect time. The team is 30-6 in its last 36 games with Randle in the lineup and ranks third in playoff net rating (+7.9).

Even better, Minnesota ranks second in defensive rating (106.8) and fifth in offensive rating (114.6) among playoff squads. They also have the highest rebound rate of remaining teams and a 57.3 true shooting percentage, 1.5 points higher than the Thunder’s 55.8, despite facing stiffer defensive competition up to this point.

As well as Anthony Edwards (26.5 points, 8.0 rebounds, 5.9 assists) has played, the playoffs have largely been about the ascension of Randle and Jaden McDaniels. Randle put up 23.9 points, 5.9 rebounds, and 5.9 assists per game, while McDaniels added 15.4 points and 6.1 rebounds with elite defense on the opposing team’s primary scorers.

Randle could play a larger role than anyone on the Timberwolves in the conference finals. If he can get going as a scorer and play-make out of the post, he will force the Thunder to show him extra help and free up driving lanes for a Wolves team that is second in the playoffs in drives per game. He’s also the only other member of the offense who could potentially force a double, and he’s far too strong and physical for Alex Caruso to front him in the post the way he did Jokic.

The Timberwolves are going to need to get a tighter handle on the ball to avoid shooting themselves in the foot. They committed turnovers on an astonishing 19 percent of their offensive possessions in the second round, which was by far the worst of that stage and worse than any team during the regular season.

The Thunder make a living off of forcing and scoring off turnovers, which makes ball security a must for the underdogs. 

The Wolves could also do with regaining their touch from outside to match the Thunder’s defensive-driven scoring bursts. They’re down to 35 percent from deep (10th) in the playoffs after they shot 37.7 percent (fourth) during the first 82 games.

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Oklahoma City Thunder Preview

Mark Daigneault said his team was better coming out of the Nuggets series than they were entering it. He was right.

The Thunder posted the highest average point differential of any team in NBA history during the regular season, and from that perspective, the Nuggets series shouldn’t have gone anywhere near a Game 7. The concern with this team was always that their youth and inexperience would cause them to collapse at an inopportune moment, such as against the best player in the world.

OKC’s resounding Game 7 home stand should give them all of the confidence in the world to attack a Timberwolves team that only shot 39.5 percent from the field and 17.2 percent from three in Game 1 of the second round following another long layover.

The Thunder lead the playoffs in net rating (+13.5) thanks to their 101.6 defensive rating (first) and 115.1 offensive rating (fourth), putting them one spot above the Wolves in both categories.

The team often found itself overwhelmed on the boards against the Nuggets but made up for it with their aggressive defense. Their 24.7 points per game off turnovers represented 20.5 percent of their total points scored and is 6.2 points above second place, which was, fittingly, the Timberwolves.

Like the visitors, the Thunder have struggled from deep after great regular-season shooting. They only made 31.9 percent of their attempts, suggesting that shooting variance could be the defining factor in the series.

Although the two teams split their regular-season series 2-2, the Thunder did a nice job corralling Edwards to 22.3 points per game. They got bit by the supporting cast, including Naz Reid (22.5 points per game), McDaniels (18.0 PPG), Nickeil Alexander-Walker (15.3 PPG), and Terrence Shannon Jr. (12.3 PPG).

OKC’s scoring distribution was much more normalized, as Gilgeous-Alexander put up 35.0 per night, Jalen Williams added 19.8, and Chet Holmgren put in another 15.0.

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Timberwolves vs. Thunder Betting Pick

• Timberwolves vs. Thunder pick: Thunder -7.5 (-105) at BetMGM

There are many reasons to believe that this could be a close series. However, I have a strong belief that the Thunder are going to come out with their hair on fire in Game 1.

OKC just got its most momentous victory of the season and in many years with its Game 7 blowout win. They got nowhere near as much rest as the Timberwolves, but they’re also an extremely young team that can draw energy from playing in front of its home crowd. Meanwhile, the Wolves’ offense really struggled after it had to take a long break at the end of the first round.

Minnesota struggled to get Edwards going against the Thunder during the regular season, and while having depth is a real asset, it can’t be counted on as the go-to. Until I see Edwards and Randle deliver against the Thunder, I have to back them in a spot like this.

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How to Watch Timberwolves vs. Thunder on 5/20/25

• When: Tuesday, May 20 @ 7:30/8:30 p.m. CT/ET

• Where: Paycom Center, Oklahoma City, OK

• TV: ESPN