Best College Basketball Bets for Friday, March 6: Miami (OH) and UCF Try to Escape the March Madness Bubble With One More Win

• Miami (OH) has gone 30-0 SU and 19-8 ATS (in games where a betting line was available)

• West Virginia leads the all-time series vs. UCF, 4-1

The final weekend of the college basketball regular season is upon us. It is the last chance for teams on the bubble to win a game and make a statement that the Selection Committee cannot ignore. Those will be the exciting games today, and they will be the focus of our Best College Basketball Bets post.

As the only undefeated team in the country, Miami (OH)’s inclusion should not be in question, but many analysts have them on the bubble, along with the UCF Knights.

No. 19 Miami (OH) RedHawks vs. Ohio Bobcats Odds & Pick

• Spread: Miami (OH) -5.5 (-110) | Ohio +5.5 (-110) 

• Moneyline: Miami (OH) -245 | Ohio +198

• Total: OVER 159.5 (-110) | UNDER 159.5 (-110)

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With a win today, Miami (OH) will finish the regular season as the only undefeated team in the nation and make school history for going undefeated in conference play as well. But the RedHawks have been cutting it close the last couple of games.

They were 11.5-point favorites against Western Michigan on the road, but narrowly escaped with a win, 69-67. Tuesday, when they hosted Toledo, Miami (OH) was a 7.5-point favorite, and once again held on for the narrow win in the end, 74-72.

Defensively, both performances were on par with what we’ve seen from them all season (No. 180 in the country; 73.9 points per game allowed), but they fell dramatically on the offensive end. In a nutshell, the team ranked No. 2 in the country in effective field goal percentage (.614) shot nothing like it.

The RedHawks should absolutely beat Ohio, much like they did a couple weeks ago at home (Feb. 13), 90-74. They opened as 9.5-road favorites in that one but closed at 7.5.

• My Pick: Miami (OH) -5.5 at FanDuel

Ohio is a solid, capable team. If Miami (OH) does not take them seriously or if they relax too soon (or at all), the Bobcats could sneak up on them and snatch the RedHawks chance at history out from underneath them. But they’ve learned their lesson in the last couple of weeks.

Miami (OH) will get the job done today and cover.

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UCF Knights vs. West Virginia Mountaineers Odds & Pick

• Spread: UCF +3.5 (-110) | West Virginia -3.5 (-110)          

• Moneyline: UCF +138 | Michigan State -166

• Total: OVER 140.5 (-115) | UNDER 140.5 (-105)

Odds from FanDuel Sportsbook

 With a 20-9, 9-8 record in hand, you’d think the Knights would be on the “should” make the Tournament field list and not the “bubble” one. Heck, at least, they’d be favored against a team with a worse record than them, right?

But, instead, the 17-13, 8-9 Big 12 Mountaineers are the betting favorite. As the home team, it makes sense that they’d get a few points. Factor in West Virginia’s 74-67 win over the Knights in Orlando a couple of weeks ago, and it becomes less shocking that the Knights are dogs in this one.

So, can they get it done this time?

UCF bounced back from the loss with three consecutive wins, including one over a ranked BYU team. But they enter this contest on a two-game losing streak, dropping one to Baylor, 87-86, and to Oklahoma State, 111-104 OT; two games that showcased their defensive struggles this season (No. 311 in points allowed).

• My Pick: UNDER 140.5 at FanDuel

I want to lean toward taking West Virginia and laying the points, but with their postseason dreams in question, I have to think the Knights may step it up a little in this game. However, we have a team with a solid offense and terrible defense (UCF) taking on one with a terrible offense and great defense.

This game just screams for a low final score. The earlier meeting finished with a total of 141 points. Expect this game to come close to that mark but fall short, and UNDER today’s TOTAL.

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