Best College Basketball Bets for Friday, March 9: Southern and Sun Belt Conference Tournament Finals

• Since returning to the single-table format for the 2013-14 season, the team with the best regular-season record has gone on to win the Southern Conference tournament title 10 times (out of 12)

• Georgia Southern leads the all-time series vs. Troy, 13-9; the Trojans won the conference tournament last season, beating Arkansas State 94-81

Excitement is in the air, Sports Fans. A few teams have earned their bids to the Tournament Field by winning their conference tournaments. Two more will join their ranks today. Those games will be the focus of our Best College Basketball Bets.

I’ll get things started with the Southern Conference Tournament Final featuring the Furman Paladins and the East Tennessee State Buccaneers before moving on to the Sun Belt Conference Tournament Final.

Southern Conference Championship: Furman Paladins vs. East Tennessee State Buccaneers Odds & Pick

• Spread: Furman +2.5 (-110) | ETSU -2.5 (-110)    

• Moneyline: Furman +114 | ETSU -137

• Total: OVER 139.5 (-110) | UNDER 139.5 (-110)

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These two teams have already played twice this season: first, on February 4, a game ETSU won in overtime, 75-70. The second, a couple of weeks later, on February 18, it was a well-played, contested match, but ETSU walked away winners again (78-69).

So, if you believe wholeheartedly in that old saying about how hard it is to beat a team three times in one season, you’re probably ready to stop reading and bet the Furman moneyline, but should you?

Furman has an efficient offense that moves the ball well (No. 1 in the conference in assists). They are solid on the boards, seldom foul (No. 1), and one of the better shooting teams in the Southern Conference (No. 3 in effective field goal percentage).  

However, they don’t get much from their bench (ninth) and they're just mediocre when it comes to fast break scoring (sixth). If they get sent to the line, don’t expect much (ninth in free throws made per game.

The Paladins will certainly need to correct some mistakes to have a shot at winning this time. In the first game, they shot 27% from three-point range (7-26) and committed 21 turnovers to nine by ETSU. From them, ETSU outscored Furman in points off turnovers, 23-8.

In the second game, Furman cleaned up the Turnovers but shot poorly from three-point range hitting 6 of 33 for 18% while ETSU hit 50%, going 12-24.

• My Pick: ETSU -2.5 at FanDuel

ETSU shoots the ball well (No. 1 in the conference in effective field goal percentage) and plays solid defense (No. 1, 69.2 points per game allowed). That aggressive defense will keep the Furman offense from getting on track, just like it did in the first two games.

It may be hard to beat a team three times in a single season, but certainly not impossible.

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Sun Belt Championship: Georgia Southern Eagles vs. Troy Trojans Odds & Pick

• Spread: Georgia Southern Eagles +5.5 (-106) | Troy Trojans -5.5 (-114)

• Moneyline: TBD +190 | Trojans -235

• Total: OVER 152.5 (-115) | UNDER 152.5 (-105)

Odds from FanDuel Sportsbook

Georgia Southern came into the tournament as the No. 10 seed, but they certainly earned their spot in the Final with a five-game winning streak through the tournament field. Troy, on the other hand, was the No. 1 seed and had a much easier route, only playing in the semifinal round.

 When these two met in the regular season, Troy took a nine-point lead into halftime of a high-scoring affair, 47-38. The Eagles got things turned around and won the second half, 40-36, but fell short of completing a comeback.

From a statistical perspective, Troy had a distinct advantage in rebounding (39-26) and made more free throws (18-24 to 13-17).

• My Pick: Troy -5.5 at FanDuel

There is something to be said for having momentum, and Georgia Southern certainly has it after defying the odds to win five in a row to get to the championship game. However, there’s also something to be said for having a rest advantage. Troy only had to play one game to earn its spot.

Both played yesterday, but Troy will have fresher legs and will be able to press Georgia Southern’s lackluster defense from the start. The Eagles will make a game of it, but don’t count on them to overcome the odds again.

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