Caleb Williams ranks below league average in Quarterback PFF Grade
Cincinnati’s Chase Brown averaged over six yards per carry in week eight
Brown currently leads the Bengals in total Red Zone Rush Attempts
Since the start of the regular season, the Cincinnati Bengals have severely struggled on defense as they rank near dead last in most key defensive metrics. Their inability to collapse the pocket and hold their ground in coverage will allow Chicago’s quarterback Caleb Williams to round back into form, potentially leading to a high-scoring affair.
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| Bears vs Bengals SGP Picks | Odds | Claim Up to $1,500 in Bonuses at BetMGM |
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| Leg 1: Caleb Williams Over 234.5 Passing Yards | -110 | CLAIM HERE |
| Leg 2: Caleb Williams Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns | -135 | CLAIM HERE |
| Leg 3: Chase Brown Over 49.5 Rushing Yards | -120 | CLAIM HERE |
| Leg 4: Chase Brown Anytime Touchdown Scorer | -150 | CLAIM HERE |
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After re-tooling the offense, Caleb Williams was expected to take a step forward with his production and help Chicago compete for the NFC North division title. Eight weeks into the season and that was yet to be the case as Williams currently ranks below league average in Quarterback PFF Grade. His inability to avoid pressure has played a major role in his struggles as he also resides near the bottom of the board in Sack Rate.
Fortunately for Williams, the Bears quarterback will have a great opportunity to put together an efficient performance as he faces off against Cincinnati's defense who ranks 32nd overall in Def DVOA. Especially with the Bengals struggling to collapse the pocket as this will help reduce the amount of Havoc in Williams' throws which will allow him to connect with his pass catchers at a more consistent rate.
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With the Bengals' secondary struggling to stop the pass, the Bears' offense will be able to get into the red zone at a higher rate. This will lead to an uptick in Williams' total number of scoring opportunities which increases his chances of throwing for a touchdown. Even when in the shortened field, the Bengals' back end have still underwhelmed in coverage as they rank near dead last in Def EPA and in Success Rate.
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Just when Chase Brown was on the verge of losing his starting role to Samaje Perine, the Bengals running back was able to find his footing as he finished last week’s contest rushing for 73 yards while averaging 6.08 yards per carry. A much-needed performance from Brown as he has spent the first half of the season ranked below league average in Yards Over Expected per Attempt.
With Chicago’s front seven ranking below league average in Run Defense Win Rate, Brown will be able to consistently generate explosive plays when he gets past the trenches and break through the second level of the Bears' defense. For some more exposure, escalator bet Brown’s rushing yardage prop by placing smaller wagers on his alternate overs at the best available odds across multiple sportsbooks.
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Even while Brown was struggling to play at a competitive level in the middle of the field, he still received a majority of the workload when inside the 20 as he comfortably leads the team in total Red Zone Rush Attempts. Brown has also carved out a small role in their pass attack as he has generated three Targets while hauling in one of them for a touchdown.
With the Bengals' NFL Offensive Player of the Year contender Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins pulling defensive attention away from the middle, this will create higher-quality running lanes for Brown to exploit. Should you want to increase your risk, then add Perine to score a touchdown to your same game parlay as well as he has seen a steady increase in his usage rate when inside the 20.
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