The Broncos are the top seed in the AFC
The Bills beat the Jaguars in the Wild Card round
Denver is a 1.5-point favorite
The Broncos enter this matchup as the No. 1 seed in the AFC, but they face their toughest test of the season. Josh Allen is looking to finally get over the hump and reach his first Super Bowl.
Allen has yet to reach a Super Bowl, but this feels like the year he finally breaks through. However, Denver boasts one of the best defenses in the league.
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Josh Allen is one of the most complete quarterbacks in the NFL, even though he has yet to reach the Super Bowl. If Buffalo is going to compete with Denver, Allen will need to have a big game through the air.
The Broncos’ secondary is strong, but Allen has proven time and time again that he can produce against elite defenses. Despite never having top-tier wide receivers, he consistently posts impressive passing numbers.
Allen has cleared this number in 10 of 18 games this season, including three of his last five. The Bills haven’t faced Denver this year, and I think the Broncos could struggle to contain Allen’s arm talent and improvisational ability.
He threw for 273 yards in the Wild Card win over Jacksonville, looking every bit like one of the best quarterbacks in the league. Even against a tough Denver defense that allows just 187.2 passing yards per game, I expect Allen to rise to the occasion.
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One of Allen’s most dangerous traits is his ability as a runner, especially near the goal line. He thrives on extending plays and isn’t afraid to take matters into his own hands, which makes this prop very appealing.
Allen has scored 16 rushing touchdowns in 18 games this season, making him one of the most reliable touchdown scorers in the league.
He’s found the end zone twice in each of his last two games against Philadelphia and Jacksonville, both strong defensive units similar to Denver. When Buffalo reaches the red zone, they often design quarterback runs specifically for Allen, and I expect that to be the case again in this massive matchup.
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The final Allen prop I’m backing is over 36.5 rushing yards. As mentioned earlier, Allen’s mobility is a major part of his game, and he consistently uses his legs to escape pressure and extend drives.
He rushed for 579 yards during the regular season and added 33 yards on 11 carries in last week’s Wild Card game. His rushing attempts tend to increase in high-leverage games, which puts him in a great position to clear this number.
Allen has gone over this line in eight games this season, and I expect him to make it nine. With James Cook and a strong passing attack keeping defenses honest, Allen should find plenty of running lanes.
Given his size and physicality, he’s difficult to bring down, and I expect him to take advantage of open gaps and pick up key yards on the ground against Denver on Saturday.
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Passing Yards: 3,668
Touchdowns: 25
Interceptions: 10
QBR: 65.0
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