Best Josh Allen Player Props for Bills vs. Jaguars in the Wild Card Round

• Josh Allen is averaging 5.2 Yards per Carry and 34.1 Rushing Yards per game

• The Buffalo Bills are listed as one of the betting favorites to win the AFC

• The Jacksonville Jaguars' defense ranks in the top-10 in Pass Rush Win Rate

Even though Josh Allen is most likely not going to win the NFL MVP award, the Buffalo Bills quarterback was still dominant this year as he heads into the playoffs ranked near the top of the board in most quarterback metrics. Unfortunately for Allen, negative regression looms large in the Wild Card Round as he faces off against a Jacksonville Jaguars defensive line who generates pressure at a high rate.

Best Josh Allen Player Props for Bills vs. Jaguars

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Josh Allen Under 21.5 Pass Completions (-115) at BetMGM Sportsbook

Since the start of the regular season, Josh Allen has played at a very high level as the former MVP ranks fifth overall in Quarterback EPA per Play. His ability to stretch out the secondary while avoiding high Havoc situations has played a major role in his success this year as Allen also ranks well above league average in Turnover Worthy Play Percentage, Big Time Throw Percentage, and in Completion Percentage Over Expected.

In an AFC playoff matchup against the Jacksonville Jaguars, expect Allen to fall hard back down to reality as he faces off against a defensive line who ranks in the top-10 in Pass Rush Win Rate. With less time in the pocket to operate, the Jags cornerbacks will be able to stay attached to the Bills pass catchers hips which will drastically narrow the width of Allen’s passing lanes.

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Josh Allen Under 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-135) at BetMGM Sportsbook

When backed up into the Red Zone, the Jags secondary have been able to successfully take advantage of the shortened field as their defense ranks above league average in Def DVOA and in EPA. With the Jags able to generate pressure with just their defensive line, their linebackers will be able to anchor in coverage across the middle which will further lessen the quality of Allen’s passing lanes.

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Josh Allen Over 37.5 Rushing Yards (-115) at BetMGM Sportsbook

While in scrambling situations, Allen has been able to gash opposing front sevens as he is currently averaging 34.1 Rushing Yards per game. His ability to extend plays with his legs was on full display over the course of the regular season as Allen also ranks above league average in Yards Over Expected per Attempt while averaging 5.2 Yards per Carry.

Fortunately for Allen, he will be able to find more success on the ground than he will through the air on Sunday as he faces off against a Jags front seven who ranks near the bottom of the board in Run Defense Line Yards. For some more exposure, escalator bet Allen’s Rushing Yardage prop by placing smaller wagers on his alternate overs at the best available odds across multiple sportsbooks.

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Josh Allen Anytime Touchdown Scorer (-130) at BetMGM Sportsbook

When in scoring position, Allen has rivaled his running back James Cook in regard to total Red Zone Carries while converting over 33% of his Rush Attempts into touchdowns. With the Jags secondary excelling in coverage as previously mentioned, Allen will need to be aggressive with his legs in order to avoid throwing a back-breaking interception which will lead to an increase in his total number of Rush Attempts.

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Josh Allen 2025-2026 Stats

• Passing Yards: 3,668

• Passing Touchdowns: 25

• Completion Percentage: 69.3%

• Total Interceptions: 10

• Average Yards per Throw: 8.0

• Passing Yards per Game: 215.8

• Rushing Yards: 579

• Rushing Touchdowns: 14

• Average Yards per Carry: 5.2

• Rushing Yards per Game: 34.1