Best Matthew Stafford Player Props for Rams vs. Bears in the Divisional Round

• Matthew Stafford is listed as the betting favorite to win the MVP award

• The Los Angeles Rams beat the Carolina Panthers 34-31 in the wildcard round

• The Chicago Bears' defense ranks below league average in Def DVOA and in EPA

In a shockingly close win against the Carolina Panthers in the wildcard round, Matthew Stafford was able to consistently pick apart their gaps in coverage as he finished the contest throwing for 304 yards. Heading into Sunday, expect Stafford to build on his momentum as the Los Angeles Rams quarterback faces off against the Chicago Bears who struggle to generate pressure in the backfield.

Best Matthew Stafford Player Props for Rams vs. Bears

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Matthew Stafford Over 270.5 Passing Yards (-115) at BetMGM Sportsbook

After bringing in Davante Adams in the offseason, Matthew Stafford has been able to play at an MVP-winning level as the betting favorite for the award ranks near the top of the board in Quarterback EPA per Play. His ability to stretch out the field with his pin point accuracy has helped turn the Rams into a Super Bowl contender as Stafford also ranks second overall in Big Time Throw Percentage.

In a favorable matchup against Chicago, Stafford will be able to continue to move the ball down the field at a high rate as he faces off against a Bears defense who ranks below league average in Def DVOA and in Pass Rush PFF Grade. For some more exposure, escalator bet Stafford’s Passing Yardage prop by placing smaller wagers on his alternate overs.

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Matthew Stafford Longest Completion Over 37.5 Yards (-115) at BetMGM Sportsbook

With the Bears' defensive line struggling to collapse the interior of the offensive line, Stafford will be able to set his feet in the pocket instead of having to throw on the run which will help improve the quality of his throws. The Bears lack of pressure will also give the Rams pass catchers more time in the open field to break away from their defenders which will drastically widen the width of Stafford’s passing lanes.

To make matters worse for the Bears, their heavy use of the blitz leaves them vulnerable to getting beat deep as their lack of bodies in coverage gives the Rams' pass catchers more room to work with. With fewer bodies at the point of contact, expect Puka Nacua and Adams to rack up Receiving Yards After Catch which increases the probability of Stafford clearing the over on his Longest Completion prop.

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Matthew Stafford Over 2.5 Passing Touchdowns (+145) at BetMGM Sportsbook

When in scoring position, Stafford has been surgical as he has been able to complete 62.1% of his Red Zone Pass Attempts while converting nearly 50.0% of his Completions into touchdowns. With the Bears' defense ranking in the bottom half of the board in Def EPA, expect Stafford to exploit their gaps in coverage and connect with his deep group of pass catchers at a high rate.

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Matthew Stafford Under 0.5 Rushing Yard (-175) at BetMGM Sportsbook

While Stafford has been able to thrive through the air, he has been conservative with his legs as he is averaging just 0.1 Rushing Yards per game. With the Bears' front seven struggling to get in the backfield, Stafford will avoid having to scramble out of the pocket to keep their drives alive. The Rams are also expected to have a lead late in the game as the current spread implies, potentially leading to a few kneel downs to help keep him under the total.

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Matthew Stafford 2025-2026 Stats

• Passing Yards: 4,707

• Passing Touchdowns: 46

• Completion Percentage: 65.0%

• Total Interceptions: 8

• Average Yards per Throw: 7.9

• Passing Yards per Game: 276.9

• Quarterback Rating: 109.2