The Seahawks are fifth in the NFL in scoring, averaging 27.7 points per game.
The Texans scored 44 points in week 5 against the Ravens, marking the most points they’ve scored in a game since C.J. Stroud became the quarterback.
The Texans allow just 35 receiving yards per game to tight ends, which is the fifth-fewest in the NFL.
In one of the two Monday Night Football games, the Seattle Seahawks are hosting the Houston Texans. The Texans are coming out of a bye week, but before that, they beat the Baltimore Ravens on the road 44-10.
As for the Seahawks, they went on the road against the Jacksonville Jaguars as a 1-point underdog and won outright, 20-12. The Seahawks' win improved their Super Bowl odds, while the Texans remain at the lower end at +4500. As for NFL Offensive Player of the Year odds, the Seahawks' Jaxon Smith-Njigba is inside the top five.
Below, I’ll create a Same Game Parlay for this Monday Night Football showdown with +500 odds. Odds below are courtesy of Fanatics Sportsbook. Sign up for a Fanatics account today and get $100 in FanCash instantly after wagering your first $10 bet.
Seahawks vs Texans SGP Picks | Odds | Claim $100 in FanCash at Fanatics |
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Leg 1: Seahawks -3.5 | +100 | CLAIM HERE |
Leg 2: C.J. Stroud 225+ Passing Yards | -115 | CLAIM HERE |
Leg 3: Elijah Arroyo Under 15.5 Receiving Yards | -140 | CLAIM HERE |
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The hook—the half-point—attached to the spread along with the +100 odds makes me a bit hesitant, but I’ll take the home team Seahawks here.
While the Texans scored 44 points in Week 5, marking the most they’ve scored in the Stroud era, it's important to note the context: this was against a Ravens team decimated by injuries, with a backup quarterback who threw three interceptions.
Now, they head out West to take on a Seahawks team that has 99 pressures this season, the second-most in the NFL. The Texans’ offense has only allowed 59 pressures this year (fourth-fewest), but they’ve also allowed a sack rate of 21.8%.
Against the Los Angeles Rams and Tampa Bay Buccaneers (which were in Weeks 1 and 2), they allowed 26 pressures, tying for 11th.
When pressured, Stroud has completed just 59.5% of his passes for 216 yards, 5.1 yards per attempt, and two interceptions.
I’ll lean toward the home team.
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While I just explained Stroud’s poor numbers when pressured, keep this in mind: there will be snaps where Stroud isn’t pressured, and the Texans will need to keep pace with the Seahawks.
After all, the Seahawks are fifth in the NFL in scoring, averaging 27.7 points per game. Conversely, the Texans are 22nd at 21.6 points.
The Seahawks also primarily play Cover-3 defense. This is important to note because, against that coverage this season, Stroud has played well, completing 68.9% of his passes for 519 yards, 8.5 yards per attempt, two touchdowns, and one interception.
On top of that, he’s had 225 passing yards or more in each of the last two games.
Not only will the Texans likely need to keep pace, but Stroud has had success against the main coverage the Seahawks run.
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This season, the Texans have allowed just 35 receiving yards per game to tight ends, which is the fifth-fewest in the NFL.
Now, they’re taking on a Seahawks offense that Smith-Njigba carries. His target share is at 36.4%, which is nearly 16 points higher than Cooper Kupp's at 20.8%.
Going down the list, you have fellow tight end A.J. Barner (12.3%), Tory Horton (9.7%), and finally, Arroyo at 7.8%.
This season, Arroyo has caught seven passes on 12 targets for 98 yards, averaging 14 yards per catch.
While there’s a chance Arroyo could get 16 yards on a single grab, I’m not going to take a chance on a player that’s fifth in the passing pecking order against a defense that plays the tight end well, and in a situation where his team is favored and could look to run the ball.
Give me the under.
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