New England Patriots vs Philadelphia Eagles: Predictions and Odds (NFL Week 11)
This game goes to the New England Patriots. Final score: Patriots 26, Eagles 23.
How to Watch: Patriots vs Eagles
What: New England Patriots at Philadelphia Eagles
When: Sunday, November 17 at 4:25 pm ET
Where: Lincoln Electric Field in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
How (TV): CBS
Latest point spread: Patriots -3, Eagles +3
Finally, for the first time ever, a Super Bowl LII (52) replay, only this time Tom Brady’s New England Patriots will have to face a healthy Carson Wentz and his Philadelphia Eagles instead of his backup (remember Nick Foles?), so it’s a chance for the GOAT to prove that his team is actually better despite that prior disappointing loss.
The Patriots are fresh (and healthy) off a Week 10 bye, their latest defeat (and only loss) to the Baltimore Ravens most likely still on their minds, while the Eagles are also equally well-rested and healed after a similar bye, only their memories are more pleasantly focused on their Week 9 home win over the Chicago Bears.
New England is ready to continue their winning ways, but Philadelphia is only starting to get into their own groove, so let’s take a glance at how these two cross-conference teams measure up against each other for their Week 11 face-off.
For more on Week 11 check out our video on “NFL Week 11 – Picks & Best Bets”
The 8-1-0 New England Patriots
Anyone who follows football knows that the New England Patriots, who suffered their first loss of the season in Week 9 to the shockingly good Baltimore Ravens, have been focused on one thing only since then, and that’s how they will neutralize the Philadelphia Eagles for a Week 10 win.
That’s just how GOAT quarterback Tom Brady and GOAT general manager/head-coach/defensive guru Bill Belichick roll – in the most fixated way, they break down what you’re good at, neutralize it and then dare you to beat them with whatever else you have left.
Of course, this season, having the number one defense in the league doesn’t hurt, either, and that’s how these Patriots are measuring up right now (first in overall defense, first in interceptions, fourth in sacks) most likely on their way to their eleventh postseason in a row.
The 5-4-0 Philadelphia Eagles
Carson Wentz’s passing game has been weakened by receiver injury (see below), but Philadelphia’s running attack has proven to be somewhat effective, their overall offense averaging almost 25 points per game during the first ten weeks of the season.
As far as defense goes, Philadelphia is good at stopping the run (they keep opponents to about 87 yards on the ground per game), but if they expect to take their show to the postseason the Eagles’ secondary has to get better against the pass, where they’re currently ranked 16th.
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What’s at Stake for Patriots vs Eagles?
These two cross-conference rivals have met 14 total times (including 2 postseason games), with New England winning 6 of those times and Philadelphia winning the other 8 games.
The last time these two teams played was in the Super Bowl at the end of the 2017 season, when the Eagles beat the Patriots 41-33 with their backup quarterback, Nick Foles.
If the Patriots win this matchup, they’ll move to 9-1-0 and continue to dominate the AFC East (as usual), with the second-best Buffalo Bills entering Week 11 with a 6-3 record.
But if the Eagles come out winners in this one, they’ll be 6-4-0 and it would be a well-needed win that helps them stay in the race for the NFC East, their biggest rival right now the Dallas Cowboys, who go into Week 11 with a 5-4 record.
Questions to Answer
Who’s favored to win this Week 11 Patriots-Eagles matchup?
Which team has a better offense? Defense? Special teams?
Which team’s quarterback is more likely to lead his team to victory?
We’re going to briefly compare the Patriots and the Eagles next and attempt to answer those questions and more.
Offensive Stats Comparison
New England Patriots Overall Offense
- Ranked 5th overall in 2018
- Ranked 15th overall in 2019
Passing attack: The New England Patriots have the 7th ranked passing offense in the league right now, averaging 273.9 yards per game through the air after ten weeks.
Quarterback Tom “GOAT” Brady is currently under center in New England and ranked the 9th most productive passer in the league having completed 230-of-355 passes for 2,536 yards and 14 touchdowns with 5 interceptions and a completion percentage of 64.8.
The Patriots’ leading receiver after ten weeks is Julian Edelman, who is currently ranked 17th in the league among receivers with 63 catches for 663 yards and 4 touchdowns.
Rushing attack: The Patriots’ rushing attack is ranked 23rd in the NFL after averaging 92.9 yards on the ground per game.
Sony Michel is the Patriots’ best runner and he is currently the 18th in the NFL with 144 carries for 482 yards and 6 rushing touchdowns, averaging 3.3 yards per carry.
New England has scored 270 total points this season, or 30 per game, which is the 2nd best total in the NFL.
New England Offensive Injuries
Listed as questionable for Week 11: wide receiver Gunner Olszewski (ankle) and tight end Matt LaCosse (knee – MCL).
Injury notes: offensive tackle Yodny Cajuste (quadriceps) is listed as NFI, while kicker Stephen Gostkowski (hip), tackle Isaiah Wynn (toe), center David Andrews (illness) and guard Hjalte Froholdt (undisclosed) have all been placed on injured reserve.
Philadelphia Eagles Overall Offense
- Ranked 14th overall in 2018
- Ranked 20th overall in 2019
Passing attack: Philadelphia has the 21st best passing attack in the league right now after averaging 219.7 yards through the air each game.
Quarterback Carson Wentz is the 18th most productive NFL passer after completing 190-of-303 passes for 2,060 yards and 15 touchdowns with 4 interceptions and a completion percentage of 62.7.
The Eagles’ best receiver is currently tight end Zach Ertz, who has caught 46 passes for 527 yards with 2 touchdowns in ten weeks, ranked 34th among NFL receivers right now.
Rushing attack: Philadelphia has the 11th ranked rushing attack, so far averaging 127.3 yards on the ground per game.
Jordan Howard is the Eagles’ best runner and now he is the 16th most productive in the NFL with 119 carries for 525 yards and 6 touchdowns, averaging 4.4 yards per carry.
Philadelphia has scored 224 points in 2019, averaging 24.9 per game, which is currently the 13th highest scoring average in the NFL.
Philadelphia Offensive Injuries
Listed as questionable for Week 11: offensive tackle Jason Peters (knee) and wide receiver Alshon Jeffery (ankle).
Injury notes: wide receiver DeSean Jackson (abdomen), running back Corey Clement (shoulder) and offensive tackle Jordan Mailata (back) have been placed on injured reserve.
Neither of these two teams is all that impressive on the ground right now, but the Patriots miraculously still have GOAT Tom Brady under center so they have the definite offensive advantage over the Eagles on Sunday.
Defensive Stats Comparison
New England Patriots Overall Defense
- Ranked 21st overall in 2018
- Ranked 1st overall in 2019
Pass coverage: The Patriots have the 2nd best pass defense in 2019 so far, allowing opponents to throw for 150.2 yards through the air per game.
New England’s defense has 19 team interceptions and they have 32 sacks total.
Run coverage: The Patriots are the 11th best NFL team against the run right now after allowing opponents to run for 99.1 yards per game.
New England has allowed its opponents to score 98 total points, or 10.9 per game, which is the lowest in the NFL.
Patriots Defensive Players to Watch
Always keep an eye out for New England outside linebacker Jamie Collins, the guy is on a roll this season with 3 interceptions (one was a 69-yard pick-six), 7 passes defended, 6 sacks, 8 quarterback hits, 2 forced fumbles, a fumble recovery and 48 total tackles (7 for a loss).
The next best Patriots sacker to Collins is middle linebacker Kyle Van Noy, who has 4.5 sacks, 9 quarterback hits, 3 forced fumbles, 2 fumble recoveries (one of those for a touchdown), and 27 total tackles (3 for a loss).
Tied for the most interceptions in the league is New England free safety Devin McCourty, who has 5 picks, plus 11 passes defended, a fumble recovery and 28 total tackles.
Patriots Defensive Injuries
Listed as questionable for Week 11: no defensive Patriots players are currently listed as questionable for Week 11.
Injury notes: linebacker Brandon King (quadriceps), safety Malik Gant (undisclosed), safety D’Angelo Ross (undisclosed), defensive ends Keionta Davis (undisclosed) and Derek Rivers (undisclosed) have all been placed on injured reserve.
Philadelphia Eagles Overall Defense
- Ranked 23rd overall in 2018
- Ranked 8th overall in 2019
Pass coverage: The Eagles’ defense is 16th best against the pass, allowing their opponents to throw for an average of 239.0 yards per matchup.
Philadelphia’s defense has 8 interceptions on opposing quarterbacks and they have 24 total sacks after ten weeks.
Run coverage: The Eagles are 4th best against a rushing attack, allowing opponents to run for an average of 87.3 yards per game.
Philadelphia has allowed its opponents to score 213 total points this season, or 23.7 per matchup, which is 18th fewest in the NFL.
Eagles Defensive Players to Watch
The best tackler on the Eagles right now is free safety Rodney McLeod, who has 49 total tackles plus an interception and 4 passes defended.
The best Philadelphia sacker (T-21st best in the NFL) is defensive end Brandon Graham, who has 6.0 total sacks, 11 quarterback hits, a forced fumble, 2 fumble recoveries and 33 total tackles (9 for a loss).
Make sure to look for Eagles’ linebacker Nate Gerry, who already has 2 interceptions (one of those went for a 51-yard pick-six), 4 passes defended a sack, 2 quarterback hits and 35 total tackles (2 for a loss).
Eagles Defensive Injuries
Listed as questionable for Week 11: linebacker Nigel Bradham (ankle).
Injury notes: cornerback Cre’ von LeBlanc (foot), defensive tackles Malik Jackson (foot) and Hassan Ridgeway (ankle) and defensive end Joe Ostman (knee-ACL) have all been placed on injured reserve.
The New England Patriots have the best defense in the league right now, so they have a definite defensive advantage over the Philadelphia Eagles on Sunday.
Special Teams Stats Comparison
New England’s punter, Jake Bailey, is in his first NFL season and this season he has punted 48 times for a net average of 42.0 yards per punt, which was the 12th best in the league.
Philadelphia’s punter, Cameron Johnston, has been with the Eagles since the 2018 season, and this year he has punted 34 times for a net average of 43.1 yards per punt, 7th best in the NFL.
New England’s placekicker, Stephen Gostkowski, is in his 14th NFL season, all with the Patriots, but he has been placed on injured reserve for a hip injury (see above).
His replacement, Mike Nugent, was released after missing two field goals against the Cleveland Browns in Week 8, and now Nick Folk, a 12-year NFL veteran, has been signed on to kick for the Patriots.
Folk is 2-of-2 so far, his longest a 22-yarder and he has missed no extra point attempts (2/2).
Philadelphia’s placekicker, Jake Elliott, is in his third NFL season, all with the Eagles.
Elliott has made 12-of-12 field goals this year, his longest a 53-yarder, and he has missed two extra-point attempts (20/22).
New England’s punt returner, wide receiver Gunner Olszewski, is ranked T-14th in the league in return average, but he’s listed as questionable (see above).
Olszewski has returned 20 punts for 179 yards, averaging 8.9 yards per return, his longest for 22 yards.
One of Philadelphia’s punt returners, running back Darren Sproles, is ranked 23rd in the league in return average.
Sproles has returned 11 punts for 86 yards, averaging 7.8 yards per return, his longest for 17 yards.
Special Teams Advantage
Right now, the Patriots’ placekicker situation is a bit of a mess, so automatically the Eagles’ will have a special teams advantage in this one.
Final Game Analysis
Why Will the Patriots Win this Game?
The New England Patriots will win this game because their number one defense will completely shut the Eagles down, on the ground and through the air, to the point where they will start to make mistakes, commit turnovers and turn the ball over.
Tom Brady does not like to lose, and that loss to the Ravens two weeks ago will still be bitter on his tongue, so expect him to take that out on the Eagles methodically and for the entire sixty minutes.
Bill Belichick has had far too much time to game plan against whatever strengths the Eagles may think they have at this point in the season, so watch how quickly his approach makes Philadelphia look inept and causes the Patriots to look ever-brilliant on their way to their ninth win of the season.
Why Will the Eagles Win this Game?
The Philadelphia Eagles will win this game against the Patriots the same way as the Ravens did in Week 9 – by putting a tremendous amount of pressure on Tom Brady and by running the ball straight up the middle, something Jordan Howard has proven he is perfectly comfortable (and capable of) doing.
Carson Wentz is only just starting to find his groove, and there is no better place for him to continue that roll than in front of his loud and (all due respect) rude hometown crowd who couldn’t hate a team more than they do the Patriots and Tom Brady.
The Eagles will have also have to figure out a way to neutralize (or at least slow down) the Patriots’ two-headed rushing attack (Sony Michel and James White) if they expect to score more points than the league’s second-highest scoring franchise this season.
Patriots vs Eagles – Who Will Win?
New England Patriots – there is no way that Tom Brady and Bill Belichick are going to lose two games in a row, especially after they had a full bye week to prepare for what the Eagles might be bringing.
John Breech of CBS Sports predicts the score as Patriots 26, Eagles 23.
My prediction for the final score is Patriots 30, Eagles 24.
New England Patriots vs Philadelphia Eagles – Game Odds