The Panthers are averaging over 193 rushing yards per game over their last three, which leads the NFL
Bills wide receiver Khalil Shakir has had 46 receiving yards or more in just two of six games
Bills quarterback Josh Allen has finished with 213 passing yards or fewer in four games this season
In Week 8, the Buffalo Bills are coming off a bye and on the road against the Carolina Panthers. Coming out of the bye week, they've stumbled to third in the Super Bowl odds at +700
Additionally, Bills quarterback Josh Allen is now behind Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes in the NFL MVP odds.
As for their opponent this week, the Panthers are without Bryce Young; he sprained his ankle last week. In his place is veteran Andy Dalton.
Below, I'll examine the three best props for this matchup.
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| Best Panthers vs. Bills Prop Bets | Odds | Claim $100 in FanCash at Fanatics |
|---|---|---|
| Rico Dowdle 50+ Rushing Yards | -105 | CLAIM HERE |
| Khalil Shakir Under 45.5 Receiving Yards | -105 | CLAIM HERE |
| Josh Allen Under 220.5 Passing Yards | -115 | CLAIM HERE |
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In Week 7, Panthers running back Chuba Hubbard was back in the lineup, but Dowdle was the more productive. Dowdle had 79 rushing yards and 17 receiving yards on 18 touches and 32 snaps. Conversely, Hubbard logged 38 snaps and had 31 rushing yards and 24 receiving yards on 16 touches.
So, while Hubbard was on the field more, Dowdle was used more often when he was there.
Over his last three games, Dowdle has rushed for 206, 183, and 79 yards. Of course, Hubbard was out in the first two games in that set of data.
Now, the Panthers are at home against the Buffalo Bills as 7.5-point underdogs.
The Bills are allowing 156.3 rushing yards per game, and so far this season, five running backs over six games have run for 50 yards or more.
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So far this season, Shakir is second on the Bills in team target share at 19.4%. He trails only Keon Coleman, who’s at 20%.
In fact, these players are separated by just one target.
This season, the Panthers are allowing the third-fewest receptions (9.43), receiving yards (116.71), and are tied for the fourth-fewest touchdowns (0.57) to opposing wide receivers.
So, we have a team that doesn’t allow a lot of production to wide receivers, and the Bills kind of have a “WR1 A/B” situation going on.
Going further, the Panthers mostly play Cover-3. Against Cover-3, Shakir has had 46 receiving yards or more in a single game just once, and that was against the New Orleans Saints.
Further, Shakir has fallen short of 46 yards in all but two games this season. He’s averaging about 10.7 yards per catch, meaning he’d need to have more than four receptions should his average hold. He’s had more than four catches in three of six games this season.
On top of all of this, the Bills are massive favorites; they may not need to throw as much anyway.
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Heading into Week 8, the Panthers are allowing just 213 passing yards to opposing quarterbacks, which is the 10th-fewest in the NFL. Also, only two quarterbacks have surpassed 220 passing yards against them.
Now, they’ll face a quarterback in Allen who’s a fantastic passer, but the numbers show he just doesn’t rack up a ton of yardage.
Through six games, Allen has had 221 passing yards or more in just two games. In both of those games, he’s had more than 28 pass attempts.
The Bills are 7.5-point road favorites against the Panthers, leading me to believe we’ll see a steady diet of Allen running along with running back James Cook.
Allen will likely be under 200 again with some excellent efficiency and rushing production.
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