New England Patriots quarterback Drake Maye is favored to win the NFL MVP award heading into Week 18.
The Patriots are dealing with two players facing legal accusations: Stefon Diggs and Christian Barmore.
The Miami Dolphins are coming off a win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 18.
In Week 18, the New England Patriots will host the Miami Dolphins.
For the Patriots, there are two goals for this game: Win and secure the No. 2 seed unless, by some chance, the Los Angeles Chargers’ backups beat the Denver Broncos and they get the No. 1 seed and help quarterback Drake Maye cement his MVP campaign.
Right now, Maye is -700 to win the award, per our NFL MVP odds. Thanks to Maye’s success and more, the Patriots positioned themselves toward the top of the Super Bowl odds at +1100.
As for the Dolphins, there’s nothing to play for, really, but it gives seventh-round rookie quarterback Quinn Ewers another chance to showcase himself to potentially play with the Dolphins next season or land somewhere else.
With that being said, below, I've constructed a three-same Same Game Parlay for this matchup with +445 odds at Fanatics Sportsbook.
Odds below for three props are courtesy of Fanatics Sportsbook. Sign up for a Fanatics account today and receive up to $2,000 in FanCash. Find more details in our Fanatics Sportsbook review.
| Best Patriots vs Dolphins SGP Picks | Odds | Get Up to $2,000 in FanCash at Fanatics |
|---|---|---|
| Leg 1: Dolphins +10.5 | -105 | CLAIM HERE |
| Leg 2: Drake Maye 225+ Passing Yards | -114 | CLAIM HERE |
| Leg 3: Hunter Henry Anytime TD | -105 | CLAIM HERE |
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While the Patriots are the better team in this matchup, I think 10.5 points is too many for them to lay.
First, this is a division game. These games tend to be much closer than you’d expect most of the time. Of course, the Patriots just demolished the Jets, but even including that game, the Patriots’ average margin of victory over division opponents is 9.6 points. Three of their five games have been by one score.
A lot has changed since then, but the Dolphins are coming off a win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and rookie quarterback Quinn Ewers completed 14 of 22 passes for 172 yards and two touchdowns.
While those numbers may not pop off the page necessarily, there’s something about Ewers’ game that could help them stay within 10 points: His average depth of target.
Among all quarterbacks with at least 60 pass attempts, Ewers is ninth in average depth of target at 9.0 yards.
Something else to consider is that, depending on the results of the Los Angeles Chargers-Denver Broncos and Jacksonville Jaguars-Tennessee Titans game, the Patriots could pull a chunk or all of their starters at some point in the game.
I’ll take the points.
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Maye has been on fire lately, throwing for 256 yards or more in each of his last two games. In Week 16, he threw for 380 yards against the Baltimore Ravens.
In Maye’s first matchup with the Dolphins in Week 2, he completed 19 of 23 passes for 230 yards. He’s thrown for 225 yards or more in 13 of 16 games. He finished just short in another game, against the Tennessee Titans, throwing for 222 yards.
There is some concern about Maye finishing the game, but it wouldn’t surprise me to see a scenario where he stays on the field to pad the stats a bit while other starters are pulled as the game gets closer to the end.
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While Henry doesn’t have any contract incentives related to touchdowns, he’s due another $250,000 if he catches five more passes and will get $250,000 on top of that if he catches 10 more passes.
The point: I think he’ll be heavily involved, especially with the ongoing legal saga surrounding wide receiver Stefon Diggs. Yes, Diggs is eligible to play, but I wonder how much he’ll play not only for that situation, but also for preparing for the playoffs.
We know that wide receiver Mack Hollins is out as he’s on injured reserve, and without him on the field, Henry has an 18.1% target share and leads the team in touchdowns.
The Dolphins are fourth in receiving yards allowed to tight ends (66.81) and allowed a touchdown in Week 16 to Cincinnati Bengals tight end Mike Gesicki.
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