NFL Divisional Round Picks Against the Spread: Do the Bears Have Another Late-Game Shocker Up Their Sleeves?

• The Bears rallied from a 21-3 deficit in the Wild Card

• The Seahawks spent three straight weeks preparing for the 49ers

• Aaron Rodgers was forced into one of the worst playoff games of the last decade-plus by Houston’s defense

The NFL Divisional round has arrived, and as teams gear up for a push to their respective conference championship games, I’ve compiled my favorite picks against the spread for the matchups.

The first three games of the Wild Card ended in game-winning drives, and the fourth nearly followed the script. The drama has been at an all-time high, complementing the wide-open nature of the playoff bracket.

There are only seven games left in the 2025 NFL season, so don’t let them go to waste.

For more info, see our Super Bowl odds and predictions.

Here are my favorite NFL Playoff Divisional Round picks and bets against the spread.

• My 2025 NFL Playoff betting stats: 4-2 (66.7%)

NFL Divisional Round Picks ATS

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Bills vs. Broncos - Jan. 17, 4:30 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Bills +1 (-115), Broncos -1 (-105)

• Moneyline: Bills -110, Broncos -110

• Total: Over/under 46 (-110/-110)

The Bills are back to familiar territory, being on the road to play a cold-weather game in the Divisional Round of the NFL Playoffs. Josh Allen will have his work cut out for him going against one of the league’s best defenses, seeing as he averaged 242 total yards and had three total touchdowns and two interceptions in three matchups (including no touchdowns in two of those games) against teams with a better EPA per play than Denver. The Bills could also do with a big game from rushing leader James Cook, in light of their injury plague at wide receiver.

On the other side of the football, the Bills’ defense allowed a miserable 5.2 yards per carry (31st) and just surrendered 6.7 yards per carry to the Jacksonville Jaguars in the Wild Card. They averaged a +0.1 turnover margin per game and were among the best teams at defending the pass, ranking fourth in yards allowed per attempt (5.8) and completion percentage allowed (59.7 percent).

Bo Nix is about to play in just the second playoff game of his career, the first being a 31-7 loss to the Bills last year. The Broncos relate Nix’s level of responsibility in a game to the performance of their defense, usually starting off conservatively and taking more chances if they fall behind. He had a solid 30 total touchdowns to 11 interceptions, but he was only 19th in EPA per play and 25th in completion percentage over expected.

The Broncos’ defense generated more sacks on a per-play basis than any team in the league, which they married with having the reigning Defensive Player of the Year, Patrick Surtain II, in the secondary. They also allowed the third-fewest yards per carry (3.9), meaning that easy and explosive gains are similarly difficult to come by. The best chance to beat them comes by having an unstoppable player, which, to Buffalo’s credit, they have one of under center.

This shapes up to be a fascinating matchup. The Broncos are clearly the better team top-to-bottom, but Buffalo is more experienced on this stage and has the best players—at the same time, the Broncos won 13 of their last 14 and are at home. Between the one-score luck and a bit of rust after a week off, I believe the Bills will win outright to advance to the AFC Championship Game. 

Bills vs. Broncos pick: Bills +1 (-115) at bet365

49ers vs. Seahawks - Jan. 18, 3:00 P.M. ET 

• Spread: 49ers +7.5 (-115), Seahawks -7.5 (-105)

• Moneyline: 49ers +280, Seahawks -360

• Total: Over/under 44.5 (-110/-110)

Although the 49ers had an incredibly easy schedule outside of their division, it’s still remarkable they achieved their regular-season record and won a playoff game. As if being without Brandon Aiyuk, Ricky Pearsall, Nick Bosa, Fred Warner, Mykel Williams, and several others wasn’t enough, they saw George Kittle go down with a torn Achilles in the Wild Card. This team is battered and bruised beyond belief, but their persistence towards winning shows how well-coached they are.

Brock Purdy and Christian McCaffrey are going to have to shoulder an enormous load against the best defense in the NFL, according to EPA per play. Meanwhile, their defense, which was 29th in success rate and 23rd in EPA per play, is going to have to battle an offense that is firmly committed to creating mismatches with their run and has an Offensive Player of the Year candidate in Jaxon-Smith Njigba.

One fascinating component of this matchup is that between Week 18, waiting during their bye, and preparing for the Divisional Round, the Seahawks effectively spent three straight weeks game-planning for the 49ers. They split the regular-season series, losing at home in Week 1, 13-17, but winning on the road in Week 18 in a battle for the division title, 13-3.

Seattle's defense is outstanding across the board. Sam Darnold threw 14 interceptions this year, third behind only Geno Smith and Tua Tagovailoa, yet they were second in yards per point and sixth in yards per play. Their play-action can be lethal, especially when Darnold is playing turnover-free football.

The Niners have my respect for what they’ve done, but this is a horrible matchup. I sided with “rust” with Denver, but I think “rest” is beneficial to Seattle, since they got to plan for this opponent for three straight weeks. I also have no idea who is supposed to make plays against the Seahawks defense that isn’t named McCaffrey, who will surely receive the majority of the attention from everyone dressed in blue.

49ers vs. Seahawks pick: Seahawks -7.5 (-105) at bet365

Texans vs. Patriots - Jan. 18, 3:00 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Texans +3 (-105), Patriots -3 (-115)

• Moneyline: Texans +150, Patriots -180

• Total: Over/under 41 (-110/-110)

According to Tru Media Sports, there have been 283 instances in which a quarterback attempted at least 20 passes in the playoffs since 2013. Aaron Rodgers in the Wild Card, against this Texans defense, ranked 283rd in success rate and EPA per dropback. That paints a very image of the most intimidating unit in the NFL currently playing, which has the best cover corners, great safeties, rangey linebackers, run-stuffers, and relentless pass-rushers off the edge.

Offense is a totally different story for Houston. C.J. Stroud simply isn’t the player the NFL world thought he was as a rookie; he’s jumpy, turnover prone, and inaccurate in the most unexpected moments. Stroud fumbled the ball five times and threw an interception last week, and he needs to tell himself that the way to win this weekend is by playing a clean game.

The Patriots beat a team with a winning record for the first time since Week 5 in the Wild Card, taking down the seventh-seed Los Angeles Chargers. However, their offense didn’t play very well, and Drake Maye’s 66 yards of scrambling proved to be the only real source of offense. The second-team All-Pro was also sacked five times, lost a fumble, and threw an interception inside his own 10-yard line.

On the flip side, the Pats’ defensive front completely dominated the point of attack, just as they should have against that miserable Chargers’ offensive line. They were much better at defending against the pass than they were at stopping the run, which makes this a strength on strength, weakness on weakness matchup, since Houston usually doesn’t mind abandoning the run.

Drake Maye is about to get the toughest test of his career as he prepares for this unbelievable defense. Texans fans also can’t help but watch with clenched teeth whenever Stroud extends plays, because his wild volatility could result in a 75-yard touchdown or a pick-six. The most consistent unit here is the Texans’ defense, and I think they will do enough to keep this close, if not help Houston win.

Texans vs. Patriots pick: Texans +3 (-105) at bet365

Rams vs. Bears - Jan. 18, 6:30 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Rams -3.5 (-115), Bears +3.5 (-105)

• Moneyline: Rams -200, Bears +165

• Total: Over/under 49 (-110/-110)

A 34-31 win and game-winning drive against the Carolina Panthers got the Rams off to the right start in the playoffs, although they were tested. Matthew Stafford showed up big time with 304 yards, three touchdowns, and an interception, but the running game didn’t provide much help. Puka Nacua posted what is, for his standard, a mundane 10 receptions for 111 yards and a touchdown.

The Rams’ defense is really starting to worry me. After ranking first in the NFL in EPA per play from Weeks 1-12, they are down to 20th in the time since. They kept the Panthers to just 83 rushing yards, but they only got Bryce Young on the ground twice and gave up 264 yards.

The Bears are the most horrifying, yet thrilling, team in the entire league. They don’t seem to seriously entertain the idea of trying to win football games until the fourth quarter, yet they have an almost-unbelievable knack for pulling off late-game heroics. Ben Johnson has done a terrific job with this team, although his fourth-down stubbornness should have cost them their Wild Card matchup with Green Bay.

There are plenty of warning signs with the Bears. Caleb Williams, despite making plays in big moments, is last in completion percentage, their defense is 22nd in EPA per play and 25th in success rate, and they lead the league in takeaways per game (1.8). That’s a very unstable foundation on which to build a team, especially one that is 60 minutes away from the conference championship game.

On one side, there is the best coach in football and the presumptive MVP. On the other hand, there’s a talented team relying on tons of outliers and variance, but that is as confident as a team can possibly be. I prefer to side with the team that is better at nearly every position on the field and shows an intent to win games from the onset, even if their defense has taken several steps backward.

Rams vs. Bears pick: Rams -3.5 (-115) at bet365