NFL Week 13 Picks Against the Spread: Thanksgiving Specials & the Bills’ Chance at Redemption

• The Seahawks and Rams are a league-best 8-3 against the spread

• The Saints and Commanders have the worst records ATS at 3-8

• Favorites have outperformed underdogs, covering in 52.6 percent of games

It’s Thanksgiving week, and the NFL has produced one of the best primetime lineups in recent memory, perfect for making my best bets against the spread.

The Thanksgiving triple-header is headlined by the Kansas City Chiefs visiting the Cowboys in the middle of the afternoon. The action will continue with a Black Friday showdown, on top of the usual Sunday and Monday games. 

With crucial weeks approaching for the playoffs race, here are my best picks and bets against the spread for NFL Week 13.

• My 2025 NFL betting stats: 93-81-3 (53.4% ATS)

NFL Week 13 Picks ATS

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Packers vs. Lions - Nov. 27, 1:00 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Packers +3 (-110), Lions -3 (-110)

• Moneyline: Packers +135, Lions -160

• Total: Over/under 49 (-110/-110)

The Packers’ offense hasn’t lived up to its usual standard recently, averaging 17.5 points per game over the last month of play. On the bright side, Micah Parsons has 3.5 sacks over his last two games and was totally dominant in last Sunday’s victory against the Vikings. The Packers completely manhandled the Lions in Week 1, but that means their opponent will be on high alert entering the weekend.

So… what happened to Detroit? They lost to the Eagles two weeks ago, 16-9, and were barely able to scrape an overtime win against the Jameis Winston-led New York Giants last weekend. They’re extremely physical, and Jahmyr Gibbs is other-worldly, but Jared Goff appears to be going pumpkin mode. That’s the worst type of mode for any quarterback, especially one who has about as easy of a job as there is in the league.

Alright, time to split hairs and figure out which inconsistent team is going to show up and show out on Thanksgiving. The Lions are probably the better team, but they simply haven’t shown up to several games, while the Packers are underperforming and haven’t proven they have the same ceiling as the Lions. I think this could be a one-point game, so even if the Lions win, I have to take the Packers to cover.

Packers vs. Lions pick: Packers +3 (-110) at bet365

Chiefs vs. Cowboys - Nov. 27, 4:30 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Chiefs -3.5 (-105), Cowboys +3.5 (-115)

• Moneyline: Chiefs -185, Cowboys +155

• Total: Over/under 51.5 (-110/-110)

Last Sunday's overtime victory against the Colts could have saved the Chiefs’ season, as they would’ve fallen to 5-6 had they not found a way to come back and win. Patrick Mahomes is being asked to do nearly everything for the offense, while the defense is a pitiful 27th in EPA allowed per play over the last month. The simple reality is that this team isn’t very good, no notes added.

It took spunk for the Cowboys to recover from an early 21-0 deficit against the Eagles, a game that finished with a walk-off field goal in a 24-21 victory. The CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens pairing is lethal to opponents, and Quinnen Williams and Logan Wilson appear to have made a positive impact on the defense. This team is still flawed, but Dak Prescott playing at an MVP level can mask those limitations.

It’s impossible to love either one of these teams at the moment. I’d feel much more comfortable backing the best quarterback in the world and one of the NFL’s elite head coaches, but I also recognize their one-dimensional approach, and the recent success of the Cowboys. Dallas has historically underperformed in crucial moments, but I have an unmistakable feeling that they will cover this line.

Chiefs v. Cowboys pick: Cowboys +3.5 (-115) at bet365

Bengals vs. Ravens - Nov. 27, 8:20 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Bengals +7 (-105), Ravens -7 (-115)

• Moneyline: Bengals +275, Ravens -350

• Total: Over/under 51.5 (-110/-110)

Joe Burrow’s expected return to the Bengals lineup makes this a much more compelling matchup, especially with Ja’Marr Chase coming back from a suspension. This game will take place in Baltimore, but it’s on a short week, limiting both teams’ preparation. The Bengals’ defense looked formidable in the first half last week, which was a welcome sign after they allowed 31, 39, 47, and 34 points in the four games before that. 

A glance at the final score of the Ravens’ 23-10 win against the Jets won’t tell the complete story. Baltimore only averaged a pitiful 4.2 yards per play, largely because Lamar Jackson was terrible through the air and on the ground. Defensively, the Ravens showed continued improvement, but that won’t matter if their offense can’t get going. There’s something strange going on with Jackson, who didn’t hit 200 yards passing in four of his last five games, has one touchdown in his last three games, and averaged 17.8 rushing yards per game over the last month.

I’m trying my best not to be emotional with this pick. Burrow returning to the lineup after months off with a terrible defense supporting him on the road is NOT a recipe for success, but then again, Jackson and the Ravens have looked pretty miserable recently, even in wins. I’ll back the Bengals to cover as Thanksgiving underdogs against their AFC North rival.

Bengals vs. Ravens pick: Bengals +7 (-105) at bet365

Bears vs. Eagles - Nov. 28, 3:00 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Bears +7 (-115), Eagles -7 (-105)

• Moneyline: Bears +250, Eagles -310

• Total: Over/under 44.5 (-110/-110)

What a time to be a Bears fan, huh? The 8-3 NFC North leaders are hot and just took down the Steelers thanks to a strong day from Caleb Williams, even though their run defense was atrocious. They’ve only lost once since Week 2 and are about to get one of their toughest tests of the season in what could confirm or reject their status as NFC contenders.

The Birds embarrassingly lost to the Cowboys last weekend, throwing away a 21-0 lead and failing to score after the 11:32 mark in the second quarter. Jalen Hurts actually threw the ball downfield, but Saquon Barkley was kept to 22 yards on 10 carries. The secondary was also carved open by Dak Prescott, and three of their starting four defensive backs are now questionable heading into Thursday's meeting.

I don’t believe the Bears are quite at the standard of a typical 8-3 team, but I also won’t deny the fact that they are a strong team that is responding well to Ben Johnson. On the other side, the Eagles are a mess internally, but they'll be fired up after their embarrassing loss. I think they’ll make life a living hell for Caleb Williams and will find a way to win and cover.

Bears vs. Eagles pick: Eagles -7 (-105) at bet365

Cardinals vs. Buccaneers - Nov. 30, 1:00 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Cardinals +3 (-110), Buccaneers -3 (-110)

• Moneyline: Cardinals +135, Buccaneers -160

• Total: Over/under 44.5 (-110/-110)

Jacoby Brissett is moving the ball better than Kyler Murray ever did, but that hasn’t translated to wins. Losing at home when the opposing quarterback turns the ball over four times is embarrassing, and I’m not sure how much longer Jonathan Gannon has in the desert. The Arizona defense is alright, but it won’t win games on its own.

There’s concern over Baker Mayfield’s left shoulder, which clearly caused him discomfort last weekend and has put him in jeopardy of missing Sunday’s game. Mayfield had less than 200 yards passing in three of his last four games as it is, and without Bucky Irving, the running game hasn’t been great. The Bucs’ passing defense needs to have a better day, but their run defense is truly elite. 

It’s hard for me to give a fair pick without knowing Mayfield’s status. Assuming he does suit up, the return of Irving should be enough to stabilize the suddenly-struggling offense. I also don’t believe that passing yards directly translate to wins, which is a paradigm that Brissett is proving with each passing week.

Cardinals vs. Buccaneers pick: Buccaneers -3 (-110) at bet365

Jaguars vs. Titans - Nov. 30, 1:00 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Jaguars -6.5 (-115), Titans +6.5 (-105)

• Moneyline: Jaguars -340, Titans +270

• Total: Over/under 41.5 (-110/-110)

Trevor Lawrence looks terrible. He turned the ball over four times last weekend, which makes it even more impressive that the Cardinals still found a way to lose a game on their home field, 27-24. The Jags defense is playing at a high level, but they need better play from their quarterback to win and win sustainably.

Cam Ward padded his stats during garbage time in a game with the Seahawks that simply wasn’t close. This disastrous season is far from Ward’s fault, however—the defense is 28th in EPA per play, and Tony Pollard has 42 rushing yards in the last two weeks combined. This is obviously the worst team in the league, and that is apparent every time they’re on the field.

There are two major factors at play here, both related to turnovers. The first is if the Jags’ solid defense will force the rookie QB into making mistakes, and the second is if Lawrence will help keep the Titans around in a game they don’t deserve to be in. I still think there’s a huge gulf in quality between the two, which is why I’m leaning toward the visitors.

Jaguars vs. Titans pick: Jaguars -6.5 (-115) at bet365

Texans vs. Colts - Nov. 30, 1:00 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Texans +4.5 (-110), Colts -4.5 (-110) 

• Moneyline: Texans +185, Colts -225

• Total: Over/under 44 (-110/-110)

Three straight wins have gone from putting the Texans out of the playoffs to having them competing for the seventh seed and playing spoiler to other would-be contenders. There aren’t enough superlatives to describe the excellence of the defense, and Davis Mills did enough to help lead a victory against the Bills last weekend. The worst-case scenarios are if Mills turns the ball over or has to play from behind, but this defense is more than capable of making up for most offensive deficiencies.

The Colts lost their second game in three weeks last Sunday as they gave up an early lead to the Chiefs in an overtime defeat. Jonathan Taylor was held in check, and Daniel Jones wasn’t able to get to 200 yards passing, although the defense was solid. The Sauce Gardner effect still hasn’t been fully realized, but Indy could also have a top-10 defense once they put the pieces together.

Jonathan Taylor could win Offensive Player of the Year, and Daniel Jones seems like a solid bet to win Comeback Player of the Year. That said, Indy’s offensive might is going to get one of its toughest tests of the season with a Texans squad that is second in EPA allowed per play. As much as I love the Texans’ defense, I think the Colts will kick it into gear, and also will make life difficult for Mills.

Texans vs. Colts pick: Colts -4.5 (-110) at bet365

Saints vs. Dolphins - Nov. 30, 1:00 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Saints +6 (-110), Dolphins -6 (-110)

• Moneyline: Saints +220, Dolphins -270

• Total: Over/under 41.5 (-110/-110)

I picked the Falcons to beat the Saints as an underdog last weekend, calling out my expectation for regression for Tyler Shough. That played out exactly as I expected, as he went 30-43 for 243 yards and an interception in a 24-10 loss. His defense hasn’t been bad recently, but they’re only 18th, below league average, in EPA allowed per play over the last month of play.

A much-needed bye week for the Dolphins came on the back of their overtime victory against the Commanders in Madrid two weeks ago. They’ll return to the field as a run-first offense, given the recent success of De’Von Achane and Tua Tagovailoa's grotesque 13 interceptions. The Miami defense is comfortably one of the seven worst in the league, and they have as good of a chance as nearly anyone at making Shough look like a competent QB.

There are plenty of reasons to dislike both of these teams. I’m unsure if a bye week will help the Miami locker room, but it will have provided the players with rest, if nothing else. I’d cautiously lay the points with the Fins at home. 

Saints vs. Dolphins pick: Dolphins -6 (-110) at bet365

Falcons vs. Jets - Nov. 30, 1:00 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Falcons -2.5 (-110), Jets +2.5 (-110)

• Moneyline: Falcons -150, Jets +125

• Total: Over/under 39.5 (-110/-110)

Kirk Cousins looked okay in his return to the field in place of the injured Michael Penix Jr., going for 199 yards, two touchdowns, and an interception. The running game was curiously held in line yet again, and no receivers stepped up in a major way without Drake London. Fortunately, the defense forced two turnovers and held the Saints to a miserable 3.8 yards per play.

Two lost turnovers doomed the Jets against the Ravens, who flat-out were not impressive in the win. Tyrod Taylor demonstrated a greater ability to move the ball through the air than Justin Fields did, but that didn’t help Breece Hall gain any steam on the ground. The positive is that the defense has looked alright recently, which is unexpected, given they lost Quinnen Williams and Sauce Gardner.

The Falcons are just a better team than the Jets are, even with Cousins under center. The Jets’ two wins were a shocking 39-38 victory against the Bengals and a one-score win against the Browns, during which they scored two special teams touchdowns. The Falcons have more firepower and a much better defense, and they should be able to hold up on the road. 

Falcons vs. Jets pick: Falcons -2.5 (-110) at bet365

49ers vs. Browns - Nov. 30, 1:00 P.M. ET 

• Spread: 49ers -6 (-110), Browns +6 (-110)

• Moneyline: 49ers -270, Browns +220

• Total: Over/under 40 (-110/-110)

Brock Purdy’s miserable first half on MNF against the Panthers came to be inconsequential as the Niners won the contest, 20-9. Their defense has played well despite numerous injuries, and Christian McCaffrey and George Kittle are still carrying the offense to success. The biggest concern here is Purdy, who has seven interceptions in four games, including at least two in three of the four.

Arguably the best sign from Shedeur Sanders’ first NFL start was that he only took one sack—that said, he has an average QBR of 4.5 (yes, 4.5) in two professional appearances. He and the Browns need a strong showing from the Myles Garrett-led defense to remain competitive in this game. Luckily for them, the D is third in EPA per play and first over the last month of play. 

As someone who correctly picked the Browns to win outright last week, I’d be terrified of backing them here. Sanders made one terrific throw, but a 66-yard pass that traveled forward one yard saved his box score. Purdy will make mistakes, but the relentless nature of McCaffrey’s running attack should help the Niners win by two scores.

49ers vs. Browns pick: 49ers -6 (-110) at bet365

Rams vs. Panthers - Nov. 30, 1:00 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Rams -10.5 (-110), Panthers +10.5 (-110)

• Moneyline: Rams -500, Panthers +400

• Total: Over/under 44.5 (-110/-110)

There aren’t enough words to describe how impressed I am with the Rams. They’re riding a six-game winning streak and just blew out the Buccaneers, 34-7, helping to fuel Matthew Stafford’s MVP campaign. The defense also ranks first in the NFL in EPA allowed per play, meaning they could arguably have the best offense AND the best defense in all of football.

Bryce Young’s short-lived magic carpet ride came crashing out of the sky last week as he followed up a 448-yard, three-touchdown masterclass with 169 yards, a touchdown, and two interceptions in a loss to the 49ers. The Panthers are consistent down-to-down and have strong marks in success rate on the ground and through the air on both offense and defense, but they often fail to create the decisive play. They could also be down two members of their starting secondary, including Jaycee Horn.

The Rams are tied for the best record against the spread in the NFL, but the Panthers are also an impressive 7-5 ATS. I’d usually back the Panthers on this line, even against a team playing as well as the Rams, but Stafford being the clear-cut MVP at this point changes the calculus. Young is in for a brutal time against this defense, while there isn’t a team in sight that can slow down the Rams’ wily veteran.

Rams vs. Panthers pick: Rams -10.5 (-110) at bet365

Vikings vs. Seahawks - Nov. 30, 4:05 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Vikings +10.5 (-110), Seahawks -10.5 (-110)

• Moneyline: Vikings +450, Seahawks -600

• Total: Over/under 41.5 (-105/-115)

Is J.J. McCarthy actually dealing with concussion-like symptoms, or is he being benched? It’s hard to know, but it would also be difficult for Max Brosmer to play much worse than McCarthy has. What’s worse, the Vikings’ defense has been on the decline as it continues to struggle with the burden placed on its shoulders by an underperforming offense.

The Seahawks totally dominated the Titans, despite what the final score might say. They’re 8-3 against the spread and will get to tee-off on either the worst starting QB in the league or an undrafted rookie. And if anyone needed proof of how strong the Seahawks are, they had a chance at a game-winning field goal against the Rams despite turning the ball over four times.

A player I intentionally neglected to mention is Sam Darnold, who has routinely dominated inferior teams and made a plethora of mistakes against contenders. I don’t think the Vikings are anywhere near that level, but I also have immense respect for Kevin O’Connell, who restored Darnold’s career, and Brian Flores. I don’t know how they’re going to score, but I believe they will create problems for a QB they got to know very well last year.

Vikings vs. Seahawks pick: Vikings +10.5 (-110) at bet365

Bills vs. Steelers - Nov. 30, 4:25 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Bill -3.5 (-110), Steelers +3.5 (-110)

• Moneyline: Bills -205, Steelers +170

• Total: Over/under 47.5 (-110/-110)

Okay, it’s crunch time for the Bills. They’re only 3-4 over their last seven games and just lost to the Davis Mills-led Houston Texans, in part because of two interceptions by Josh Allen. The Buffalo defense is only 21st in the league in EPA per play, and the lack of talent at skill positions is glaring. If James Cook doesn’t get going early, this team is predictable, and Allen feels pressured to play hero-ball as did earlier in his career.

Aaron Rodgers is expected to be back under center, but left tackle Broderick Jones and defensive end Derrick Harmon are out. That’s less-than-stellar news for a team that lost four of its last six and just fell to the Bears on the road. Mike Tomlin has done a phenomenal job against the spread as a home underdog, but the Steelers are almost as middle-of-the-road as it gets, ranking 15th and 16th in offensive and defensive success rate.

Tomlin and company are 1-2 against the spread as home underdogs already this season, going against the trend of his career. The simple reality is that this Steelers team is very limited, especially with their defense failing to play any better than average despite earning more combined money than any unit in the league… but I still think they can keep it close, given Buffalo’s offensive limitations.

Bills vs. Steelers pick: Steelers +3.5 (-110) at bet365

Raiders vs. Chargers - Nov. 30, 4:25 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Raiders +9.5 (-110), Chargers -9.5 (-110)

• Moneyline: Raiders +400, Chargers -550

• Total: Over/under 41 (-110/-110)

Firing Chip Kelly isn’t going to improve the Raiders’ offensive line, which is playing at a high school level. Geno Smith’s 13 interceptions are proof that he’s befuddled in the pocket, while Ashton Jeanty averaged a miserable 3.6 yards per carry. The defense is 12th in yards allowed per play, but that’s inconsequential when the offense can’t stop shooting itself in the foot.

The Chargers, ironically, have a multitude of injuries on their offensive line, yet they’ve found ways to survive, even with three of their top four running backs landing on IR. Justin Herbert is leaps and bounds ahead of Smith, and the defense is still playing at a top-10 level. The team perfectly fits its 7-4 record, and they will get healthier, particularly with the 21-day window opening for Omarion Hampton’s return.

This is a divisional rivalry, which can never be discounted. There’s also the possibility of a new coach bounce for the Raiders, even though they have obvious roster limitations. I hate it, but I think the Raiders can stay within 10 points, even though I fully expect the Chargers to come out on top.

Raiders vs. Chargers pick: Raiders +9.5 (-110) at bet365

Broncos vs. Commanders - Nov. 30, 8:20 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Broncos -6.5 (-110), Commanders +6.5 (-110)

• Moneyline: Broncos -310, Commanders +250

• Total: Over/under 43.5 (-110/-110)

The Broncos' defense is simply suffocating. They generate the most pressure in the league, they stop the run, and they have the reigning Defensive Player of the Year, Pat Surtain II, leading their secondary. Offensively, Bo Nix has been stagnant and prone to mistakes, but he’s been able to nickel-and-dime his way to victory.

The Commanders’ season from hell has come for both their health and happiness. A plethora of injuries have ravaged them, and they haven’t produced the same late-game heroics they did one year ago. This team has its eyes on the future, but there is the possibility for defensive improvement with Dan Quinn serving as the defensive coordinator.

Despite all of their injuries, the Commanders are seventh in EPA per play over the last month. I don’t expect that to give them a chance to win, but I’ve also been totally unimpressed with Nix, who is now without starting running back J.K. Dobbins. Any semblance of improvement on defense could help the Commanders cover in a game they have a minuscule chance of winning.

Broncos vs. Commanders pick: Commanders +6.5 (-110) at bet365

Giants vs. Patriots - Dec. 1, 8:15 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Giants +7.5 (-115), Patriots -7.5 (-105)

• Moneyline: Giants +320, Patriots -400

• Total: Over/under 46.5 (-110/-110)

Jaxson Dart is questionable, but Jameis Winston played a heck of a game in an overtime loss to the Lions last weekend. The Giants struggle to stop the run, but they can generate pressure with their stout defensive line. There’s something incomplete about this roster, but that’s to be expected, given they are still early in a rebuild.

The Patriots are the hottest team in the NFL, having won nine straight games and taken down the Bengals last week, 26-20. Drake Maye is second in NFL MVP odds, and the defense has gotten better and better, particularly against the pass. The Pats played an extremely easy schedule, but they also won their tough games and blew out most of the bad teams they faced.

Winston showed spunk in his first start of the year, and Dart was playing at a high level when he went out of action. The Patriots have been winning relentlessly, but there’s also going to be a certain level of mental exhaustion. Call me crazy, but I could see the Giants covering in primetime.

Giants vs. Patriots pick: Giants +7.5 (-115) at bet365

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