NFL Week 14 Picks Against the Spread: Cowboys Making Playoff Push, Chiefs’ Season on the Line?

• The Seahawks lead the NFL against the spread at 9-3

• The Raiders, Vikings, Saints, Commanders, and Ravens all have the worst spread records at 4-8

• Road favorites started the year hot but have struggled recently

There’s just over a month left in the 2025 NFL season, and I’m not taking it for granted. That’s why I’m spilling the beans and sharing my best bets against the spread for NFL Week 14.

This year has been a war of attrition. I’ve rarely ever had losing weeks, although I also haven’t had the dominant weeks, resulting in steady, but consistent, weekly wins. That will be put to the test with a loaded weekend slate between many evenly-matched teams.

Are you just as excited for games as I am? Let’s celebrate together by taking a look at my best NFL bets against the spread for Week 14.

• My 2025 NFL betting stats: 101-88-4 (53.4% ATS)

NFL Week 14 Picks ATS

Odds from bet365 sportsbook. Sign up for a bet365 account with our promo code WSN365 and claim the welcome offer: Bet $5, Get $150 in Bonus Bets Win or Lose. Find more info in our bet365 Sportsbook review.

Also, check out our selection of the best NFL Sportsbooks and claim the latest NFL betting promos today.

If you're in a state where bet365 Sportsbook is not yet legal, we recommend playing at Underdog Fantasy. Read our Underdog Fantasy Review, learn how to claim your promo code WSNPLAY, and sign up below.

Cowboys vs. Lions - Dec. 4, 8:15 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Cowboys +3 (-105), Lions -3 (-115)

• Moneyline: Cowboys +145, Lions -170

• Total: Over/under 53.5 (-115/-105)

So, the Cowboys suddenly look like a competent playoff threat, and even a contender in the NFC East. The Dak Prescott-George Pickens-CeeDee Lamb trio is just too much for most defenses, and the defense looks better, at least, on the front, with Quinnen Williams and Logan Wilson. The Cowboys also scored huge back-to-back victories over the Chiefs and Eagles the last two weeks.

The Lions might be on fraud watch following their recent stretch of results. A loss to the Eagles, during which they scored nine points, a narrow overtime win against the Giants, and a decisive loss to the Packers have really hurt this team’s reputation and standing in the NFC picture. They are still explosive, but Jared Goff’s underwhelming play and the defense’s regression are serious causes for concern.

Alright, let’s get down to business. I love how the Cowboys have looked recently, and their offense can get into a shootout (and win) against any team in football. That said, the Lions simply don’t lose consecutive games, and I know what they’ve been for years, whereas the Cowboys are only starting to round into form. It’s just too soon to lay three points on the road with the ‘Boys.

Cowboys vs. Lions pick: Lions -3 (-115) at bet365

Bengals vs. Bills - Dec. 7, 1:00 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Bengals +5.5 (-110), Bills -5.5 (-110)

• Moneyline: Bengals +230, Bills -280

• Total: Over/under 51.5 (-110/-110)

Joe Burrow and Josh Allen will meet as both teams clamor for much-needed wins. Burrow lit up the Ravens in his return to action last week, while the porous defense anchored down and held the Ravens to just 14 points. Cincy has an outside chance at winning the AFC North, but a chance nonetheless, and their offense is capable of scoring 30 points in the blink of an eye.

Just when it started to look like the Bills’ season was slipping away, they beat the Steelers 26-7. That performance wasn’t without its blemishes, however, as Josh Allen threw an interception for the fourth straight week and only had 123 yards to go with two total touchdowns. Buffalo’s offense is in a funk any time James Cook isn’t dominating, and the defense struggles to contain the run. 

While I’m being cautious with the Cowboys, I’m taking the opposite approach with the Bills—just in the inverse. I believe the Bills’ warts are real, and Burrow, with the help of Ja’Marr Chase, can expose them. An improved defensive effort will go a long way to helping Cincy cover for the third week running.

Bengals vs. Bills pick: Bengals +5.5 (-110) at bet365

Colts vs. Jaguars - Dec. 7, 1:00 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Colts -1.5 (-110), Jaguars +1.5 (-110)

• Moneyline: Colts -125, Jaguars +105

• Total: Over/under 47.5 (-110/-110)

An injured Daniels Jones didn’t look overly impressive or unimpressive against the Texans’ tenacious defense last week. The story was Jonathan Taylor being held to 85 yards on 21 carries, which, by his standards, is a forgettable afternoon, along with a calf injury suffered by Sauce Gardner. The Colts have suddenly dropped two straight games after looking close to unstoppable on offense, and they now get an AFC South rival who is hungry and confident.

Why are the Jags confident? How about them taking control over the division following a resounding 25-3 win against the Titans, marking their third straight victory. Trevor Lawrence finally decided not to throw an interception, and the Jags’ suffocating defense outshone their total inability to run the football. 

Liam Coen and Shane Steichen have both proven themselves to be great coaches, and they will put their 8-4 records on the line on Sunday. Indy has been more impressive overall, but the Jags’ defense, ranked seventh in EPA allowed per play, could have the upper hand, given Gardner’s injury. The home team is second in defensive success rate against the run, and they have the tools to make life tough for Taylor.

Colts vs. Jaguars pick: Jaguars +1.5 (-110) at bet365

Dolphins vs. Jets - Dec. 7, 1:00 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Dolphins -2.5 (-115), Jets +2.5 (-105)

• Moneyline: Dolphins -150, Jets +125

• Total: Over/under 40.5 (-110/-110)

The Dolphins dominated the Saints last weekend and would’ve covered had they not left the back door open. It’s impossible to like anything that Tua Tagovailoa has done lately, but their defense has stepped up against a couple of terrible and one great offense, while De’Von Achane has been electric during the team’s three-game winning streak. They’re 4-3 at home this season but only 1-4 on the road.

The Jets won last weekend, bringing them to 3-2 over their last five, although they fell to the Dolphins in Week 4, 21-27. Tyrod Taylor has found a way to help move the ball down the field through the air, which has had a carryover effect that gave Breece Hall more room on the ground. The defense was bad last week and has been horrible all year, but a rare turnover last week helped make the difference in their win.

I found myself conflicted in this spot. It feels unrealistic to expect the Dolphins to win four straight games, especially given how they started the season, but the Jets are flat-out terrible at football. If push comes to shove (and it does), I’ll look for the Dolphins’ ability to run the ball to translate in the cold weather. 

Dolphins vs. Jets pick: Dolphins -2.5 (-115) at bet365

Saints vs. Buccaneers - Dec. 7, 1:00 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Saints +9 (-115), Buccaneers -9 (-105)

• Moneyline: Saints +375, Buccaneers -500

• Total: Over/under 42.5 (-110/-110)

Don’t forget that Uncle Grant told you weeks ago not to fall victim to the Tyler Shough intrigue. The Saints’ rookie QB has been resoundingly unimpressive, and the only reason his team covered last week is because of garbage time stat-padding. This team could easily be picking first in the draft most seasons; there just so happens to be a heap of garbage in Tennessee occupying the top spot.

The Bucs let the Cardinals back into a game they never had a chance of winning last week, although they didn’t look great. Bucky Irving’s return made a positive impact on the offense, but Baker Mayfield was held under 200 yards passing, and the defense gave up 6.3 yards per play. The Bucs have quickly gone from looking like an NFC contender to a potential one-and-done team in the NFC South.

The Saints are a terrible football team with a quarterback who hasn't done anything to earn respect in NFL circles. On the flip side, the Bucs’ talent has translated to impressive recent results, and their prolific passing game is nowhere close to firing on all cylinders. While I won’t cheer for the Saints, I will back them to cover in this spot.

Saints vs. Buccaneers pick: Saints +9 (-115) at bet365

Steelers vs. Ravens - Dec. 7, 1:00 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Steelers +6 (-110), Ravens -6 (-110)

• Moneyline: Steelers +235, Ravens -290

• Total: Over/under 43 (-110/-110)

The Steelers remind me of a basketball team that was built without complementary pieces—for example, two on-ball guards, neither of whom are great shooters. The offense can move the football, but it also goes stagnant at various times, while the defense is 18th in yards per play, which is terrible for a team spending more money than any other on its D. Aaron Rodgers also looks every bit of 41 years old when he’s on the field.

Lamar Jackson has been awful recently. The two-time MVP has three interceptions and no touchdowns in his last three games, and he was held under 200 yards passing in four of his last six games. The Ravens’ defense had also been ascending until it allowed 32 points to the Bengals last week, a score that actually flatters the Ravens, given Cincy wasted several red zone trips.  

A divisional matchup between AFC North rivals usually calls for close games… However, I don’t think the Steelers are a good team, and I still believe that the Ravens can be, if Jackson remembers how to play football. The Steelers dropped five of their last seven, so it’s not hard to imagine them losing by a touchdown.

Steelers vs. Ravens pick: Ravens -6 (-110) at bet365

Seahawks vs. Falcons - Dec. 7, 1:00 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Seahawks +7 (-110), Falcons -7 (-110)

• Moneyline: Seahawks -380, Falcons +300

• Total: Over/under 44.5 (-110/-110)

The Seahawks did something fascinating last weekend as they beat the Vikings 26-0 despite Sam Darnold going 14/26 for 128 yards. They had to kick a ton of field goals because of the ineffectiveness of their offense, but the five turnovers they forced made that inconsequential. The Seahawks’ defense is suffocating, but be warned: Darnold had three touchdowns and five interceptions in his last four games, not to mention that three of his four lowest-graded games (based on QBR) came during that stretch. 

Raheem Morris is making it easy to see a world in which he loses his job. The Falcons just lost to the Tyrod Taylor-led Jets, 27-24, and don’t seem to have a clue how to maximize an incredibly talented offense. They can generate pressure, unlike years past, but they’re down to league-average in defensive EPA per play.

Kirk Cousins has a challenge on his hands with this Seahawks defense, one that I think he will fail. The veteran QB has seen a lot of different coverages, but his total lack of mobility should cause him serious problems against a team that leads the NFL in pressure generated and is fourth in yards allowed per rush attempt. I expect Seattle’s D to power them to a comfortable win via several turnovers.

Seahawks vs. Falcons pick: Seahawks -7 (-110) at bet365

Titans vs. Browns - Dec. 7, 1:00 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Titans +4 (-110), Browns -4 (-110)

• Moneyline: Titans +165, Browns -200

• Total: Over/under 33.5 (-110/-110)

The Titans are a truly terrible football team with next to no redeeming qualities. Cam Ward has arm talent, but he also doesn't consistently display it, not that he’s getting much help from any of his teammates. To the credit of the defense, they worked their way up to 14th in success rate over the last month…

The problem is that the Browns led the NFL in defensive success rate during that time, while also ranking fourth, to the Titans’ 25th in EPA per play. Shedeur Sanders, a friend and workout partner of Ward’s hasn’t done much of anything during his time as the starter, but he also didn’t turn the ball over last week. That’s… something.

A projected over/under of 33.5 points without inclement weather is pathetic. The Browns’ defense is going to bring the pain to Ward, but at the same time, Sanders does not look like an NFL quarterback, and the Titans' defense has improved. Every piece of me hates picking a side in this game, but I’d lean toward the underdog visitors. 

Titans vs. Browns pick: Titans +4 (-110) at bet365

Commanders vs. Vikings - Dec. 7, 1:00 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Commanders +1.5 (-110), Vikings -1.5

• Moneyline: Commanders +105, Vikings -125

• Total: Over/under 42 (-110/-110)

Getting a read on the Commanders has been difficult all year long, due to both their injuries and the complete change in their fortunes, following a season in which they made an appearance in the conference championship game. They enter this week on the back of one of their best performances of the season, a game in which they went to the final play of overtime with the 10-2 Broncos. The defense looks better with Dan Quinn calling the plays, and their offensive line just held the league-leaders in pressure to a 17.9 percent pressure rate.

The Vikings will try to do what the Broncos couldn't, which is use their defense, which is second in pressure generated, to heat up Marcus Mariota or Jayden Daniels, whichever is under center. J.J. McCarthy is expected to return from a concussion, but that doesn’t mean much, seeing as he has a QBR of 24.1 to go with eight total touchdowns and 10 interceptions. Every single Minnesota win has to come from defensive excellence or terrific coaching, if not both.

The Commanders’ defense has been miserable for most of the year, so it’s very possible this is a get-right game for McCarthy and the Vikings. At the same time, Mariota did very well against Denver’s elite defense last week, and the offensive line’s improvement could be key. Again, the Commanders have been a tough read all year, but they have a great chance of winning this game.

Commanders vs. Vikings pick: Commanders +1.5 (-110) at bet365

Broncos vs. Raiders - Dec. 7, 4:05 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Broncos -7.5 (-110), Raiders +7.5 (-110)

• Moneyline: Broncos -425, Raiders +325

• Total: Over/under 40.5 (-110/-110)

It’s hard to take issue with anything the Broncos did in their game against the Commanders, even though it went down to the final play of overtime. They outperformed their season averages in points, yards, yards per play, EPA per play, and success rate, and Bo Nix went over 300 yards passing, while the defense forced a turnover and suffocated the run. The Broncos prefer to win games with their defense and will increase Bo Nix’s workload according to how effective their opponent’s offense is.

Firing Chip Kelly hasn’t unlocked the Raiders’ running game or general offensive effectiveness. Ashton Jeanty carried the ball 15 times for 31 yards last weekend, while Geno Smith went for 165 yards to lead the team to 14 points in a 17-point loss against the Chargers. Smith leads the league in interceptions, Jeanty can’t find running lanes, and the league-average defense carries the responsibility of the 1985 Chicago Bears’.

I thought the Raiders had a chance to cover the 9.5-point line last week, and I was wrong. That’s why it’s concerning that I still believe they could cover, given the Broncos aren’t all that interested in using their offense to pull away from their opponents. Denver only beat Vegas 10-7 about a month ago, and I have a feeling this could be close as well.

Broncos vs. Raiders pick: Raiders +7.5 (-110) at bet365

Bears vs. Packers - Dec. 7, 4:25 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Bears +6.5 (-105), Packers -6.5 (-115)

• Moneyline: Bears +235, Packers -290

• Total: Over/under 44.5 (-110/-110)

This is where the line between pure football analysis and NFL betting talk reveals itself. From a pure football perspective, it’s impressive that Ben Johnson’s identity has taken hold so quickly, and that the Bears have run their way to the first seed in the NFC. From a sports betting perspective, Caleb Williams’ inaccuracy and a boom-or-bust defense, combined with having the lowest DVOA of any 9-3 team in NFL history, mean the Bears are a walking liability.

The Packers have been a puzzling team in their own right. Jordan Love and the offense have dominated advanced metrics, but their results have been totally erratic. Their defense is also playing at a league-average level during their three-game winning streak, which suggests it might not be sustainable. 

The Bears won’t lose for a long time if they continue to run for 200 yards every time they’re on the field. However, the Packers have a top-10 defense against the run, and their offense appears to have a higher level despite scoring fewer points per game. At the end of the day, I’m still learning about the Bears, whereas I have an idea of who the Packers are, so…

Bears vs. Packers pick: Packers -6.5 (-115) at bet365

Rams vs. Cardinals - Dec. 7, 4:25 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Rams -8 (-110), Cardinals +8 (-110)

• Moneyline: Rams -425, Cardinals +325

• Total: Over/under 48 (-110/-110)

Just when the Rams took the lead in Super Bowl odds, they lost as double-digit favorites to the Panthers, and Matthew Stafford slipped behind Drake Maye in MVP odds. Never mind that, as the Rams are still second in defensive and sixth in offensive EPA per play with an average scoring margin of +10.3 points. They’re also 3-2 on the road, all three of those wins coming by at least 14 points.

Jacoby Brissett has proven that he does not have a problem moving the ball down the field. His problem has been getting that to translate to points and wins, though it’s impossible to blame him for all of the team’s struggles, given what’s happened to their running game and defense. The Cards are 6-6 against the spread, but their cover last week was their first in four weeks.

The Rams are clearly the better team, and they will be motivated to perform following last weekend’s loss. On the other side of that coin, Brissett seems like a lock to throw for 300 yards every time he’s on the field, which means that the backdoor cover is always open. I like the Rams a lot more (obviously), but I do think the Cards can hang around in this one.

Rams vs. Cardinals pick: Cardinals +8 (-110) at bet365

Texans vs. Chiefs - Dec. 7, 8:20 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Texans +3 (+100), Chiefs -3 (-120)

• Moneyline: Texans +155, Chiefs -185

• Total: Over/under 42 (-110/-110)

The Chiefs’ season is on the line, and the Texans’ isn’t far from it. C.J. Stroud returned to action last weekend to throw for 276 yards and an interception, while the dominant defense turned the water off for the high-powered Colts. Make no mistake, Stroud is not the player he appeared to be as a rookie, but this defense is flat-out sensational and has already wreaked havoc on several top quarterbacks.

The Chiefs have very obvious issues. They can’t run the football, their skill position players are limited, and their defense looks old and grabby. Patrick Mahomes threw for 261 yards and four touchdowns last week, and the team still lost, which speaks volumes about where the franchise is at.

Don’t worry about Stroud outdueling Mahomes, just try to figure out if the Texans can stymie or force turnovers off of the Chiefs’ QB. I’m expecting a tough matchup, but the stubborn side of me also doesn’t see the Chiefs falling below .500 in Week 14 and effectively guaranteeing they miss the playoffs. The captain goes down with the ship; give me the Chiefs.

Texans vs. Chiefs pick: Chiefs -3 (-120) at bet365

Eagles vs. Chargers- Dec. 8, 8:15 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Eagles -2.5 (-120), Chargers +2.5 (+100)

• Moneyline: Eagles -155, Chargers +130

• Total: Over/under 40.5 (-110/-110)

Back-to-back losses and a 4-4 record over the last two months confirms what the NFL world knew about the Eagles, which is that their problems are very real. They just gave up 281 rushing yards to the Bears, and Jalen Hurts oscillates between relentlessly heaving jump balls downfield to not throwing the ball at all. The defense is hanging out at around a top-10 level, but watching them get totally dominated physically last week was unlike anything I can remember seeing from them in years.

The Chargers took down the Raiders last weekend, 31-14, but that doesn’t really say much. Justin Herbert is good to play after suffering a small injury, but he threw at least one interception in eight of his last 10 games. LA’s defense is physical but also not as imposing as it was earlier this year and during the last campaign.

Okay, I’m closing out the week by backing the favorites. For all of their problems, they still win or are competitive in nearly every game, and they have too much talent not to put up a fight in a desperate situation, seeing as they’re on the verge of losing three straight games. Philly also has an extra couple of days of rest, so I don’t mind laying the points on the road.

Eagles vs. Chargers pick: Eagles -2.5 (-120) at bet365super bowl