NFL Week 15 Picks Against the Spread: Bills Hunting Patriots, Will Lions Upset Rams?

• The Seahawks are the only 10-3 team against the spread in the NFL

• The Commanders and Ravens are a league-worst 4-9 ATS

• A matchup between Super Bowl hopefuls, the Packers and Broncos, sees both teams enter below .500 ATS

The transition to December means that playoff football isn’t far away, and I’ve made my best picks against the spread for a crucial NFL Week 15.

I continued my steady and consistent winning habit, going 9-5 ATS with last week’s picks. I called the Seattle Seahawks’ dominance and upsets by the New Orleans Saints and Tennessee Titans, but I was totally off the mark with the Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles.

As the season gets closer to its regular-season finale, the heat is being turned up on Super Bowl contenders and playoff hopefuls. That greatly impacted how I went about making these picks, which I am confident will age gracefully over the coming days.

Want to know who to bet on in the NFL? Here are my top NFL spread bets and picks for Week 15.

• My 2025 NFL betting stats: 110-93-4 (54.2% ATS)

NFL Week 15 Picks ATS

Odds from bet365 sportsbook. Sign up for a bet365 account with our promo code WSN365 and claim the welcome offer: Bet $5, Get $150 in Bonus Bets Win or Lose. Find more info in our bet365 Sportsbook review.

Also, check out our selection of the best NFL Sportsbooks and claim the latest NFL betting promos today.

If you're in a state where bet365 Sportsbook is not yet legal, we recommend playing at Underdog Fantasy. Read our Underdog Fantasy Review, learn how to claim your promo code WSNPLAY, and sign up below.

Falcons vs. Buccaneers - Dec. 11, 8:15 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Falcons +4 (-110), Buccaneers -4 (-110)

• Moneyline: Falcons +185, Buccaneers -225

• Total: Over/under 44.5 (-110/-110)

Seven losses in their last eight games (correctly) paints the picture that the Falcons aren’t a good football team. It’s hard to think that a different head coach wouldn’t be able to get more out of their offensive weapons, and their noticeable improvements on defense haven’t culminated in anything significant. The team lost to the Seahawks last week, 37-9, and has only beaten the Saints since the first month of the season.

The Bucs are also on a sharp downward slide, having lost four of their last five games after looking like an early contender to get to the NFC Championship Game. Baker Mayfield was held under 200 yards passing in five of his last six outings, and he had four touchdowns to four interceptions in his last four games. The defense stuffs the run but gives up yardage through the air.

A division rivalry on a short week is typically a breeding ground for underdog covers. That said, I haven’t forgotten what I saw with this Bucs offense earlier in the year, and I know that they can play better than they have. Kirk Cousins is (predictably) struggling, and I’ll back the favorites on their home field.

Falcons vs. Buccaneers pick: Buccaneers -4 (-110) at bet365

Cardinals vs. Texans - Dec. 14, 1:00 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Cardinals +9.5 (-110), Texans -9.5 (-110)

• Moneyline: Cardinals +390, Texans -525

• Total: Over/under 42.5 (-110/-110)

Yet again, there might not be a quarterback better at racking up passing yards than modern-day Jacoby Brissett, although that hasn't equated to W’s in the win/loss column. The Cardinals surrendered 45 points to the Rams last week and lost five straight, as well as 10 of their last 11 contests. They’re 31st in success rate since Week 3, and their injuries and general lack of offensive talent give them a small chance of staying competitive against most good teams.

The Texans are white-hot, having won five straight games, including those against the Jaguars, Colts, Bills, and, last weekend, the Chiefs. C.J. Stroud isn’t doing anything special, but this defense is flat-out sensational and just held Patrick Mahomes to 160 yards and three INTs on 14/33 passing. Houston is suddenly 8-5 and 4-2 at home, while their defense looks like the best unit in the league. 

As brilliant as the Texans’ defense is, they can’t run the football, and Stroud isn’t single-handedly winning games. Brissett will turn the football over and won’t score every trip into the red zone, but he will move the football. I can see a world in which the Cardinals are within 10 points of the home team, even if they don’t have a real chance to win.

Cardinals vs. Texans pick: Cardinals +9.5 (-110) at bet365

Ravens vs. Bengals - Dec. 14, 1:00 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Ravens -2.5 (-110), Bengals +2.5 (-110)

• Moneyline: Ravens -140, Bengals +120

• Total: Over/under 51.5 (-110/-110)

The Ravens were still favorites to win the AFC North at 1-5. Now, at 6-7 and after consecutive losses to the Bengals and Steelers, it’s nearly impossible to feel positive about them as a collective. Lamar Jackson seems to have completely forgotten everything that goes into being a good quarterback, while the defense’s improvements went by the wayside during their back-to-back losses.

Joe Burrow went for 284 yards, four TDs, and two INTs last weekend in a game the Bengals threw away to the Bills, 34-39. Their miserable defense has quietly risen to 21st in EPA per play over the last three weeks, which is a considerable improvement, but they need Burrow to play clean football to win games.

Looking at this Ravens team and their roster, it’s close to impossible to figure out how they aren’t a terrific, much less above-average, football team. Jackson has one touchdown and four interceptions in his last four games, and he hasn’t run for 50 yards in a game since the first week of the season. I’ll ride with the Ravens in an all-time bounce-back spot after they fell to the Bengals a couple of weeks ago, but I don’t feel great about it.

Ravens vs. Bengals pick: Ravens -2.5 (-110) at bet365

Bills vs. Patriots - Dec. 14, 1:00 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Bills -1 (-105), Patriots +1 (-115)

• Moneyline: Bills -110, Patriots -110

• Total: Over/under 49.5 (-110/-110)

The best game of the week, bar none, will see the AFC East-leading Patriots host the Bills, fresh off their high-scoring win over the Bengals. Buffalo fell to their rivals when they played early in the year in a game in which they struggled to run the football, and Josh Allen was the only quarterback to turn over the football. The Bills have a huge problem with their run defense, which is 24th in EPA per play over the last month and is 29th in yards allowed per carry (5.1).

The Pats were one of the few teams that got the final bye week of the season, which could go one of two ways. Either they’ll come out refreshed and build on their 11-2 start to truly push for the Super Bowl, or they’ll completely lose their rhythm and remind the world that they are still a young team that was assembled overnight. Drake Maye has put up MVP numbers all year, and despite playing an easy schedule, the Pats took down the few strong teams they played.

This has all of the makings of an NFL classic, whether it be last year’s MVP taking on the potential winner this time around, the rivalry nature, or the battle to win the division. The Pats would be wise to run the football, whereas the Bills are going to have to assert their will against a physical defense. I do worry about the week off and the revenge factor at play, so I’d cautiously lean toward the Bills on the road.

Bills vs. Patriots pick: Bills +1 (-105) at bet365

Browns vs. Bears - Dec. 14, 1:00 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Browns +7.5 (-110), Bears -7.5 (-110)

• Moneyline: Browns +300, Bears -380

• Total: Over/under 40 (-110/-110)

Shedeur Sanders played an impressive game in last week’s loss to the Titans, going for 364 yards, three touchdowns, and an interception, although he barely completed more than 50 percent of his passes. The disappointment was the Browns’ run defense, which was gashed for 161 yards by Tony Pollard, of all people. A questionable coaching decision on a pivotal two-point conversion also turned up the heat on coach Kevin Stefanski’s seat yet again.

The Bears were competitive late in last weekend’s 28-21 loss to the Packers, but they also received a reminder that Caleb Williams can’t win games for them. This team needs to run the football well and likely has a limit on how many points it can allow before winning becomes untenable. All that said, they are 9-4, well coached, and have a strong sense of self-belief that can be hard to come by.

Sanders played the best game of his young career last weekend, but that was against arguably the worst defense in football. The Bears can run the football, just like the Titans did, and they have the better QB and weapons. I am comfortable backing them to win by two scores.

Browns vs. Bears pick: Bears -7.5 (-110) at bet365

Chargers vs. Chiefs - Dec. 14, 1:00 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Chargers +4.5 (-110), Chiefs -4.5 (-110)

• Moneyline: Chargers +190, Chiefs -230

• Total: Over/under 41.5 (-110/-110)

Justin Herbert just can’t stop throwing interceptions, and he was held to less than 200 yards passing in three straight games. He doesn’t take all of the blame for that, as his offensive line has been flat-out pathetic (with the excuse of injuries). On the flip side, the defense forced five turnovers (four interceptions, one fumble) against the Eagles last week, helping them to improve to 6-2 at home.

The Chiefs are below .500 in Week 15—what a time to be alive. The back-to-back-to-back Super Bowl participants lost four of their last five games, during which they ranked 13th in offensive and 27th in defensive EPA per play. Patrick Mahomes looks frustrated and desperate, but also incapable of conjuring his old magic, while the defense’s inability to generate pressure on third down is a glaring issue. 

Yes, it’s difficult to wrap our minds around the Chiefs being a bad football team. It’s equally difficult to imagine them dropping five of six games, but the reality is that they have major weaknesses, including their ability to run the football and make Mahomes’ life easier and bring pressure on the most important down in football. LA’s suspect offensive line will make this tough sledding, but I trust them to cover, even if they lose outright.

Chargers vs. Chiefs pick: Chargers +4.5 (-110) at bet365

Raiders vs. Eagles - Dec. 14, 1:00 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Raiders +11 (-110), Eagles -11 (-110)

• Moneyline: Raiders +525, Eagles -750

• Total: Over/under 38.5 (-110/-110)

Another AFC West team, the Raiders, is 2-11 and riding a seven-game losing streak, although they covered for the first time in four games on Sunday. Geno Smith left with an injury but is expected to be back on the field this weekend, although that’s not necessarily a positive. Vegas’ defense is quietly league-average, if nothing else, but it is constantly put in unforgiving situations by a miserable offense.

The Eagles lost three straight games and could be headed for a fate similar to the one they suffered in 2023, when they lost six of seven after starting 10-1. Jalen Hurts just threw six interceptions and now ranks 20th in QBR, hilariously, during the same week that Saquon Barkley had his best game of the year. Philly’s defense wreaked havoc on Herbert and company and can still dominate the line of scrimmage without Jalen Carter, and that's their ticket to winning games moving forward. 

The Raiders’ offensive line play has been egregiously bad. I expect them to struggle to move the ball, just like they have all year, but I also have no idea what I’m going to get from this Philly offense. I’m sick and tired of losing by betting on the Eagles, and I’m just not sure how they can blow out any team right now.

Raiders vs. Eagles pick: Raiders +11 (-110) at bet365

Jets vs. Jaguars - Dec. 14, 1:00 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Jets +11.5 (-110), Jaguars -11.5 (-110)

• Moneyline: Jets +525, Jaguars -750

• Total: Over/under 41.5 (-110/-110)

The Jets took last week off, ending their best run of the season, during which they won three of six games. They were wiped out by the Dolphins in their last game, 34-10, and have been terrible on both sides the entire season. Tyrod Taylor has opened up the playbook and helped take pressure off of the defense, but that isn’t saying much.

Trevor Lawrence stacked two solid performances on top of each other, which is certainly something to be proud of for the previously-struggling QB. Jacksonville’s defense is quietly one of the best in the NFL, and they shut down Jonathan Taylor and forced interceptions off of both Daniel Jones and Riley Leonard last weekend. Lawrence is always a threat to turn the ball over, but when he doesn’t this team has proven it can beat most of its opponents.

This could be controversial, but I love the Jets in this spot. They’re 7-5-1 against the spread, only just behind the Jags’ 8-5, and they are coming off of a week of rest amid their best stretch of the year. Jacksonville dominated its last couple of games, but that’s largely because Lawrence didn’t turn the ball over, something he hasn’t proven he can do consistently.

Jets vs. Jaguars pick: Jets +11.5 (-110) at bet365

Commanders vs. Giants - Dec. 14, 1:00 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Commanders +2 (-110), Giants -2 (-110)

• Moneyline: Commanders +110, Giants -130

• Total: Over/under 47.5 (-110/-110)

How the mighty have fallen! From being one game away from the NFC Championship Game last year, to losing 31-0 to a 4-8 Vikings team last weekend, the Commanders’ status as one of the worst teams in football has been well earned. Jayden Daniels is dealing with soreness in his re-injured left elbow, and the oddsmakers’ opinion seems to be that he won’t play.

Jaxson Dart and the G-Men had a bye last week, giving them a break after their 33-15 loss to the Patriots on Monday Night Football. Despite their talent on the defensive line, they’re only 23rd in pressure rate and dead last in yards allowed per carry (a pitiful 5.8), which is a recipe for disaster. That’s not to mention they lack talent in the rest of their defense, and their best playmakers on offense are injured.

What a mess both of these teams are. The Giants would have the first pick in the draft if the season ended today, yet they’re favored to beat their NFC East rivals, who thumped them in Maryland back in Week 1. This Commanders’ defense lost any semblance of identity it had after Dan Quinn took over as the playcaller, and the constant shuffling on offense has to have a negative effect against a well-rested team coming off of a bye.

Commanders vs. Giants pick: Giants -2 (-110) at bet365

Panthers vs. Saints - Dec. 14, 4:25 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Panthers -2.5 (-115), Saints +2.5 (-105)

• Moneyline: Panthers -155, Saints +130

• Total: Over/under 40.5 (-110/-110)

Yet another team coming off of their bye week, the Panthers beat the Rams 31-28 their last time on the field. They’ve now won six of their last nine, with standout victories against the Rams, Packers, and Cowboys in the mix. Bryce Young looks more and more capable of running the offense, so long as the running game holds up its end of the deal, and the defense is straight-up nasty on its day.

Speaking of defense, the Saints’ is top-five in EPA per play over the last month. Rookie QB Tyler Shough went 13/20 for 144 yards, two rushing touchdowns, and an interception last week, although he’s still struggling to consistently make a positive difference through the air. Alvin Kamara is questionable to return to the lineup, although he doesn't have a single 100-yard rushing game this season.

I was early on the Panthers’ train and am proud of their success. Quite the opposite, I liked the Saints under 5.5 wins before the season began, and I don’t feel much different with four games left in the season. I’m still out on Shough, while Young and co. are surging, so I’ll take the rested, and better, football team.

Panthers vs. Saints pick: Panthers -2.5 (-115) at bet365

Lions vs. Rams - Dec. 14, 4:25 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Lions +5.5 (-110), Rams -5.5 (-110)

• Moneyline: Lions +225, Rams -275

• Total: Over/under 55 (-110/-110)

Getting a bead on the Lions is close to impossible right now. Their explosive offense hung 44 points on the Cowboys when last seen, but was also held to nine points against the Eagles less than a month before that. They struggle to get stops when they need to, especially against important teams, but they have one of the most talented rosters in the entire NFL.

The Rams responded to an unexpected loss to the Panthers by annihilating the Cardinals, 45-17. Matthew Stafford got back to playing MVP-level football, while the running backs ran wild for 253 total yards. The defense also ranks third in points allowed per game (17.5), making them elite on both sides of the football.

The Lions don’t lose consecutive games under Dan Campbell, but they wouldn’t be at risk of that here. They got an extended period of rest after playing the Cowboys on TNF last week, but they will have to fly across the country to get to LA. I think the Rams are the clear and obvious Super Bowl favorites, but I have a hunch the Lions will pull out all of their tricks to stay competitive.

Lions vs. Rams pick: Lions +5.5 (-110) at bet365

Packers vs. Broncos - Dec. 14, 4:25 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Packers -2.5 (-110), Broncos +2.5 (-110)

• Moneyline: Packers -140, Broncos +120

• Total: Over/under 43.5 (-110/-110)

The Packers couldn’t quite put the Bears away, but they were able to finish on top and cover in a 28-21 win against their rivals. They are elite on both sides of the football, but the best way to attack them is by running the football and taking away their deep shots on offense. A questionable mid-season stretch is nothing more than a distant memory now that they won four straight games, including three straight against NFC North opponents.

The Broncos are back at home, where they are 6-0 this season. Bo Nix is similar to Caleb Williams in that he can extend plays outside of the pocket while remaining alive as a passer, something Williams found success doing last weekend, and Denver’s defense is one of the two best in the NFL. The Broncos don’t usually pull away from teams with their offense, but Bo Nix should be allowed to take more risks in this matchup.

This is yet another litmus test for both squads, both of whom are, surprisingly, below .500 against the spread for the year. The Packers are a bit of a well-oiled machine, whereas everything is breaking right for the Broncos, who are two plays and four points away from being 13-0. I think the Broncos are more consistent than the Packers, and because they’re at home, I like them in this spot. 

Packers vs. Broncos pick: Broncos +2.5 (-110) at bet365

Colts vs. Seahawks - Dec. 14, 4:25 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Colts +13.5 (-110), Seahawks +13.5 (-110)

• Moneyline: Colts +575, Seahawks -850 

• Total: Over/under 42.5 (-110/-110)

While the biggest news of the week was that the Colts signed 44-year-old Phillip Rivers, Riley Leonard is expected to be under center after his first meaningful action last week. Jonathan Taylor hasn’t taken over games recently, but he’s still a terrific player, and the defense is solid. Shane Steichen seemed to be able to get to .500 no matter who his quarterback was, and he’ll know how to put Leonard in the best situations for his success.

The Seahawks won their last two games by a combined score of 63-9, meaning there’s no team in the league that has been more dominant in recent weeks. Sam Darnold has cooled off completely, but the defense is so menacing that virtually nobody has noticed. The way to beat this team is to make Darnold play hero ball, but he’s so insulated that it rarely happens.

Don’t be shocked if the Colts win this game outright—yea, I said it. Steichen is a terrific head coach who knows how to put his guys in optimal spots, and he’ll have a plan to run the football and force the Seahawks to do the same. Leonard might not be a great player, but he knows how to win football games, as evidenced by him being in the College Football Championship Game last winter.

Colts vs. Seahawks pick: Colts +13.5 (-110) at bet365

Titans vs. 49ers - Dec. 14, 4:25 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Titans +12.5 (-110), 49ers -12.5 (-110)

• Moneyline: Titans +575, 49ers -850

• Total: Over/under 44.5 (-110/-110)

Who knows how the Titans beat the Browns last week, despite Cam Ward going 14/28 for 117 yards, two TDs, and an INT, while Shedeur Sanders had 364 yards, four total TDs, and an INT? Tony Pollard ripped off his first 100-yard game of the season, but this team has been terrible running the football all year. They also rank 27th in EPA per play on defense, although they’ve climbed to 19th in success rate.

The Niners also beat the Browns their last time on the field two weeks ago, 26-8. Getting healthy has helped them partially restore their status as an outside contender in the NFC, but one that can be an annoyance, due to their persistent ability to move the football with their running game and play-action. Brock Purdy has been a turnover risk, but he also carved up the only bad defense that he played (the Cardinals).

I liked the Titans last week, so I can say, with confidence, that I hate them this week. Ward had no answers for the Browns’ defense, and it took an outlier day by Pollard to power them to a victory. They also made Sanders look like an All-Pro, so I can only imagine what Purdy and Kyle Shanahan have planned coming off of a bye week.

Titans vs. 49ers pick: 49ers -12.5 (-110) at bet365

Vikings vs. Cowboys - Dec. 14, 8:20 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Vikings +5.5 (-110), Cowboys -5.5 (-110)

• Moneyline: Vikings +220, Cowboys -270

• Total: Over/under 47.5 (-110/-110)

What a weird few weeks for the Vikings. They went from losing to the Packers, 23-6, and the Seahawks, 26-0, to stomping the Commanders, 31-0. It’s hard to draw anything from that performance because of how pathetic the Commanders have been, but it’s nice to know that J.J. McCarthy has confidence, and that Brian Flores is still a twisted sicko (said lovingly). The Vikings have been better on the road this year, and they get to play the role of underdog on Sunday.

The NFL world got a little too over its skis when the Cowboys became a popular pick to beat the Lions, who took them down by 14 points. That doesn’t take away from Dallas’ recent wins over the Eagles and Chiefs, Dak Prescott’s MVP-level play, or their recently-improved front-seven. This team is exciting, if nothing else, and has game-breakers at multiple levels.

I won’t be convinced that the Vikings are a good team because they interrupted a prolonged losing streak to beat a horrible team. Meanwhile, the Cowboys’ window to win the NFC East is still open because of the Eagles’ collapse, and they are in an obvious bounce-back spot. If Prescott doesn’t turn the ball over multiple times, I see them winning by at least a touchdown.

Vikings vs. Cowboys pick: Cowboys -5.5 (-110) at bet365

Dolphins vs. Steelers - Dec. 15, 8:15 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Dolphins +3.5 (-115), Steelers -3.5 (-105)

• Moneyline: Dolphins +155, Steelers -185

• Total: Over/under 41.5 (-110/-110)

Just when all seemed lost for the Dolphins, they turned around and ripped off four straight wins, including one against the Bills. Tua Tagovailoa is still turning the ball over like a madman, and De’Von Achane’s injury is a major source of concern. The defense has played better, but it still seems unlikely to slow down any team that finds its rhythm early on.

Aaron Rodgers played one of his best games of the season last weekend, throwing for 284 yards and a touchdown in a 27-22 win against the Ravens. The running game was anonymous, but DK Metcalf saved the day with 148 receiving yards. The defense also did a nice job, though it still should be much better, seeing how much money the players on that side of the ball are earning.

I never would’ve imagined the Steelers winning the AFC North, but that seems like what’s going to happen. The Dolphins are “hot” and coming off of a bye, but they beat three terrible teams during their recent hot streak. I expect a methodical approach from the Steelers and for them to win a low-scoring game at home in the cold weather.

Dolphins vs. Steelers pick: Steelers -3.5 (-105) at bet365

Bet $5 at bet365 and Get $150 in Bonus Bets