NFL Week 17 Picks Against the Spread: Best Christmas Bets, Will Bills Beat the Eagles?

• The Rams are an NFL-best 11-4 against the spread

• The Buccaneers, Commanders, and Ravens have the worst ATS records at 5-10

• No team with a losing record has a winning record ATS

With only two weeks left in the 2025 NFL regular season, the stakes are as high as they could be. That’s why I’m back here for another week to deliver my best bets against the spread in NFL Week 17.

Last week was my worst of the season, but not enough to take us out of the green overall. I predicted the Tennessee Titans would upset the Kansas City Chiefs, and the New England Patriots would take down the Baltimore Ravens, but I completely whiffed on the Jacksonville Jaguars against the Denver Broncos, among others.

With three Christmas Thursday games, a pair of Saturday matchups, and the normal Sunday and Monday slates, there’s no shortage of gridiron entertainment on the horizon.

Here are my best bets and picks against the spread for NFL Week 17.

• My 2025 NFL betting stats: 125-111-5 (53% ATS)

NFL Week 17 Picks ATS

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Cowboys vs. Commanders - Dec. 25, 1:00 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Cowboys -5.5 (-110), Commanders +5.5 (-110)

• Moneyline: Cowboys -270, Commanders +220

• Total: Over/under 50.5 (-110/-110)

After “fixing” their defense, the Cowboys immediately went on to surrender 44, 34, and 34 points to the Lions, Vikings, and Chargers. They have a 4,000-yard passer, a 1,000-yard rusher, and two 1,000-yard receivers, but they’re already mathematically eliminated from the playoffs. This team can still score points in bunches and will want to spoil their arch rivals’ day on Christmas. 

The unrelenting injury plague continued for the Commanders last week, as they lost Marcus Mariota, Johnny Newton, and Brandon Coleman, among others. They actually looked like the more physical team against the Eagles, but they couldn’t stop Saquon Barkley’s north-south runs and have now lost nine of their last 10 games. There’s also a chance that veteran backup Josh Johnson is under center, since Mariota had to get stitches in his hand and was evaluated for a concussion.

Allow me to put this as plainly as I can: the Cowboys dropped 44 points on the Commanders earlier this year, and the latter’s defense hasn’t gotten any better since that time. Josh Johnson could be asked to score as many points as Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb, and George Pickens, and that simply will not happen. There’s no reason not to be confident in the Cowboys to kick off Christmas Day.

• Cowboys vs. Commanders pick: Cowboys -5.5 (-110)

Lions vs. Vikings - Dec. 25, 4:30 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Lions -6 (-110), Vikings +6 (-110)

• Moneyline: Lions -260, Vikings +210

• Total: Over/under 44.5 (-110/-110)

Dan Campbell’s Lions finally lost back-to-back games, falling to the Steelers on Sunday, 29-24. They now have to travel on the road to face a division rival on a short week after already playing on Thanksgiving, which Lions players are not pleased about. This team still has all of the talent in the world, but they’ve been incapable of running the ball in several of their losses, and they once again have a ton of injuries on defense.

J.J. McCarthy was forced to leave last weekend’s game with an injury, paving the way for undrafted rookie Max Brosmer to take the controls. He went 7/9 for 52 yards, but he also had 126 yards and four interceptions against the Seahawks in his only start of the year. The Vikings also haven't been prolific running the football, which means the pressure is going to be on their defense to make plays.

On one hand, Brosmer’s best chance of making plays will come against an injured defense that dramatically reworked their approach, switching to much more zone coverage against the Steelers last week. On the other hand, Brosmer appears to be terrible, while Jared Goff has been dialed in for a couple of months. The Lions are in a tough spot going on the road on a short week after consecutive losses, so it wouldn’t shock me if they win a close, low-scoring game.

• Lions vs. Vikings pick: Vikings +6 (-110)

Broncos vs. Chiefs - Dec. 25, 8:15 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Broncos -13 (-105), Chiefs +13.5 (-115) 

• Moneyline: Broncos -850, Chiefs +575

• Total: Over/under 37.5 (-110/-110)

Bo Nix and company were thoroughly outplayed on their home field by the Jaguars last week, but they still managed to hold onto the first seed in the AFC. They’re in search of a response as they prepare to head on the road to face a Chiefs team that has terrorized them and the rest of the AFC West for years. The defense was uncharacteristically suspect last week, but Bo Nix has gotten better as the year has progressed.

With Patrick Mahomes out and Gardner Minshew likely joining him on IR, the fate of the Chiefs is in the hands of Chris Oladokun. The offense has produced, but also been heavily reliant on Mahomes, while the defense has struggled, but now has the pressure of producing the majority of the team’s good plays. It’s crazy seeing the Chiefs as two-touchdown underdogs, but it’s fitting.

I don’t see how anyone could feel comfortable betting on the Chiefs in this game. Travis Kelce is probably ready to call it a career, Chris Jones is getting older, and the veteran-led defense knows it isn’t competing for anything. The Broncos need to respond, not just to hold onto the first seed, but to restore their confidence and rhythm. I’ll happily lay the points with the Broncos.

• Broncos vs. Chiefs pick: Broncos -13 (-105)

Texans vs. Chargers - Dec. 26, 4:30 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Texans +1.5 (-115), Chargers -1.5 (-105)

• Moneyline: Texans +100, Chargers -120

• Total: Over/under 39.5 (-110/-110)

The Texans barely snuck past the miserable Raiders last week. One of the most shocking developments in that game was that they allowed Ashton Jeanty to run for 128 yards and a touchdown, while Geno Smith cracked 200 yards with two TDs and an INT. Offensively, they’re really struggling to run the ball, and C.J. Stroud isn’t living up to the reputation he created for himself as a rookie.

The Chargers could still win the AFC West, a revelation heavily influenced by their winning seven of their last eight games. Justin Herbert torched the Cowboys’ lowly defense last week, racking up 300 yards and three total touchdowns in the victory. The defense is also fifth in EPA allowed per play and success rate, which means that they can support their offense whenever Herbert isn’t at his best.

This should prove to be a competitive matchup, as evidenced by the spread. I really worry about the Chargers’ ability to hold up in pass protection against a defense as menacing as Houston’s, but I also trust Herbert to be the best player on the field if it’s needed. The Texans have better wins recently, but I like the Bolts.

• Texans vs. Chargers pick: Chargers -1.5 (-105)

Ravens vs. Packers - Dec. 26, 8:00 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Ravens +2.5 (-105), Packers -2.5 (-115)

• Moneyline: Ravens +125, Packers -150

• Total: Over/under 40.5 (-110/-110)

It’s unclear if either quarterback will be available for this game. The Ravens have also been the team more prone to letting their bettors down, not to mention that Malik Willis is a better backup QB option than Snoop Huntley. I can’t give a totally fair pick without knowing the fate of Lamar Jackson or Jordan Love, but the Packers seem like the better pick if both or neither starting quarterbacks are available. 

• Ravens vs. Packers pick: Packers -2.5 (-115)

Cardinals vs. Bengals - Dec. 28, 1:00 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Cardinals +7 (-105), Bengals -7 (-115)

• Moneyline: Cardinals +275, Bengals -350

• Total: Over/under 53.5 (-110/-110)

It’s yet another disappointing season for the Cardinals, who are down to 3-12 and lost their last seven games. They had a chance to beat the Falcons last week, but Jacoby Brissett played arguably his worst game since he took over the starting duties for Kyler Murray, and they gave up 152 rushing yards. This defense is miserable, and while Brissett has had some nice box scores, he hasn’t made winning plays in big moments.

Joe Burrow was sensational against the Dolphins, racking up 309 yards and four touchdowns in a 45-21 victory. The defense gave up a lot of yards, but they snatched two interceptions off of rookie Quinn Ewers. Cincy isn’t playing for anything, but there hasn’t been any sign of quitting—just some standard poor play from a team that lost twice as many games as it won.

Brissett has proven his ability to move the ball around the field since he took over as the starter. While Burrow was terrific, abysmal, and then sensational since returning to the field, and he’s facing a miserable defense, the Bengals’ might be even worse. I think the Cards can hang around and do enough to cover this line.

• Cardinals vs. Bengals pick: Cardinals +7 (-105)

Jaguars vs. Colts - Dec. 28, 1:00 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Jaguars -6.5 (-110), Colts +6.5 (-110)

• Moneyline: Jaguars -300, Colts +240

• Total: Over/under 47.5 (-115/-105)

The Jags sent a message to the rest of the NFL last week, adding to their six-game winning streak with a 14-point road beatdown of the 12-2 Denver Broncos. Trevor Lawrence suddenly has 14 touchdowns and no interceptions in his last four games, and the defense is still playing like one of the seven best in the NFL. Liam Coen appears to be a terrific coach, and all of this is happening without Brian Thomas Jr. making much of an impact.

Philip Rivers did all that he could on Monday, going for 277 yards, two touchdowns, and an interception, but Jonathan Taylor’s poor game combined with the defense surrendering 48 points to the 49ers meant that Indy never had a chance. Following an 8-2 start, they dropped five straight games, and are going to be watching the playoffs from their couch. Shane Steichen is a great coach, but it’s hard to see this team having much desire given their recent run.

The Jags are officially the “in” team, given their recent exploits. Lawrence is playing the best football of his NFL career, Travis Etienne Jr. is balling, and the defense is no longer overperforming, it’s just flat-out great. With all of that said, this is the most obvious let-down spot I’ve ever seen, and I foresee Rivers ruining lots of Jags bettors’ days.

• Jaguars vs. Colts pick: Colts +6.5 (-110)

Patriots vs. Jets - Dec. 28, 1:00 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Patriots -13.5 (-110), Jets +13.5 (-110)

• Moneyline: Patriots -950, Jets +625

• Total: Over/under 43 (-110/-110)

Drake Maye is doing all he can to stay in the MVP race with Matthew Stafford, who is playing at an extraordinarily high level. The 23-year-old QB had 405 total yards, two touchdowns, and an interception in last week’s win against the Ravens, meaning that the Pats are now 7-0 on the road. Their run defense has been suspect recently, but they will be as bought-in as ever as they continue to hunt for the first seed in the AFC.

The Jets are rolling with Brady Cook for the third straight week, which is great… if you like your quarterbacks to have one touchdown, six interceptions, and a QBR of 9.7 for the year. The defense had been playing alright, but it allowed 34, 48, and 29 points in its last three games. There just isn’t talent or impressive coaching going on in the Big Apple.

Anybody with two working eyes can tell that the Patriots are a better team than the Jets; the question is if they are good enough to cover two touchdowns on the road. Cook is a walking turnover risk with virtually no upside, and the Pats need to continue winning games to have a shot at the first seed in the AFC. I’m looking for an all-time beatdown in this matchup.

• Patriots vs. Jets pick: Patriots -13.5 (-110)

Saints vs. Titans - Dec. 28, 1:00 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Saints -2.5 (-115), Titans +2.5 (-105)

• Moneyline: Saints -150, Titans +125

• Total: Over/under 39.5 (-110/-110)

Alright, Tyler Shough is better than I thought. He still hasn’t looked great against winning teams, but he’s not playing one of those on Sunday, as he prepares to take on the Titans. New Orleans’ defense leads in the NFL in EPA per play since Week 10, and they just ripped off a three-game winning streak, seemingly out of nowhere.

Cam Ward has flashed his arm talent all year, and he’s finally started to turn that into strong box scores in winning efforts. The first-overall pick had 228 yards and two TDs in last week’s blowout win against the injured Chiefs, and he’s looking more and more confident in the pocket. The worry is the defense, which recently gave up 37 points to the Niners and 29 to the lowly Browns. 

While the Saints are certainly crushing my expectations for them, I simply don’t believe they are this good. Shough has had his moments, but he also isn’t at the level that he can be expected to consistently produce, in my opinion. The defense also doesn’t have the talent to continue playing at a league-best standard, all of which is why I’m backing the home team.

• Saints vs. Titans pick: Titans +2.5 (-105)

Steelers vs. Browns - Dec. 28, 1:00 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Steelers -4 (-110), Browns +4 (-110)

• Moneyline: Steelers -150, Browns +125

• Total: Over/under 39.5 (-110/-110)

Credit where credit is due, Aaron Rodgers is playing his best ball of the year at the right time. Even better, Jaylen Warren just torched the Lions for 143 yards and two touchdowns, bringing the Steelers to 9-6 on the year. T.J. Watt’s lung issue is a worry when the team gets into high-leverage games, but they won’t have any of those until the playoffs.

Shedeur Sanders only had 157 yards, one TD, and two INTs last weekend, yet the Browns were within three points of the Bills. The bigger issue is Quinshon Judkins’ long-term knee injury suffered during that contest, which has put Raheim Sanders into the lead back position. Myles Garrett is one sack away from the NFL’s all-time record, and he’ll lead a defense that has tons of talent and is capable of wrecking any game for its opponent.

You can’t help but be impressed that Mike Tomlin guided the Steelers to yet another winning season. I worry about Rodgers’ lack of mobility and expect Garrett to set the NFL single-season sack record in this game, but I also think that Sanders will struggle without a running game to support him. I see the Steelers squeaking their way to a win and a cover.

• Steelers vs. Browns pick: Steelers -4 (-110)

Seahawks vs. Panthers - Dec. 28, 1:00 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Seahawks -7 (-115), Panthers +7 (-105)

• Moneyline: Seahawks -350, Panthers +275

• Total: Over/under 42.5 (-110/-110)

The Rams might be getting all of the press out on the West Coast, but it’s the Seahawks who lead the division at 12-3. Sam Darnold is throwing too many interceptions (13 on the year), but the defense is simply suffocating, particularly against the run. Mike MacDonald looks like one of the best coaches in the NFL, and the offense has enough firepower with Jaxon Smith-Njigba to win high-scoring shootouts.

The Panthers’ hold on first place in the NFC South has not come without merit, but it will be placed in danger heading into this matchup. Bryce Young played really impressive football for the last month and change, and he did a number on the Rams’ great defense at the end of November, but this is a different level. The positive news is that the Panthers are 5-2 on their home field and have already mounted upsets against the Packers, Rams, and Buccaneers.

I love what the Seahawks are doing and don’t see how anyone wouldn’t label them a bona fide contender in the NFC. That said, the Panthers’ defense can be downright nasty, and Young has done a nice job of taking easy gains and turning play-action passes into explosive plays. The Seahawks are rightly favored, but I can see the underdogs keeping this close.

• Seahawks vs. Panthers pick: Panthers +7 (-105)

Buccaneers vs. Dolphins - Dec. 28, 1:00 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Buccaneers -5.5 (-110), Dolphins +5.5 (-110)

• Moneyline: Buccaneers -240, Dolphins +195

• Total: Over/under 46.5 (-110/-110)

Does anyone have any idea what happened to the Buccaneers, the former heavyweights of the south that have now lost six of their last seven games? Baker Mayfield has been erratic and inaccurate, the secondary has been horrific, and the team just looks out of juice. This is the total antithesis of what this team was labelled as, and they just lost three straight games, all against divisional opponents.

The Dolphins were sent back to misery during last week’s 45-21 loss to the Bengals, giving them back-to-back losses after they’d ripped off a four-game winning streak. Quinn Ewers had 260 yards and two interceptions, while De’Von Achance continued his strong stretch running the football. The defense is bruised and battered, and they seem to have run out of the juice they gained during their winning stretch.

Clearly, the Bucs are a better football team than the Dolphins. At the same time, they have been wildly disappointing and totally disconnected on offense. I believe that the favorites will win this game, but I also believe that they aren’t on the same page enough to cover this line.

• Buccaneers vs. Dolphins pick: Dolphins +5.5 (-110)

Giants vs. Raiders - Dec. 28, 4:05 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Giants +1.5 (-110), Raiders -1.5 (-110)

• Moneyline: Giants +105, Raiders -125

• Total: Over/under 41.5 (-110/-110)

It would be fitting if both teams lost this game. The Giants are actually in a solid position moving into the future, having sorted out their quarterback, running back, receiver, left tackle, entire defensive line, one corner slot, and a safety position, on top of likely having a top-three pick in the draft. Still, they lost nine straight games, and Jaxson Dart only had 33 yards and an interception in last week’s defeat against the Vikings.

Geno Smith played his best game of the season, based on QBR, last week, going 16/23 for 201 yards, two TDs, and an INT. The fact that was a season-defining moment shows just how far he’s fallen since he made waves in Seattle, but Ashton Jeanty’s 128-yard rushing day against the Texans last Sunday is the bigger story. This team had been totally uncompetitive for a while, but they nearly took down a red-hot opponent with a top-three defense.

A few weeks ago, I would’ve confidently backed the Giants in this spot. However, Dart’s up-and-down play, combined with Jeanty’s recent success and matchup with a defense that allowed 5.5 yards per carry (last) makes me think that the home team can get this done… and in the process, potentially play themselves out of the draft position they need to draft Fernando Mendoza or Dante Moore.

• Giants vs. Raiders pick: Raiders -1.5 (-110)

Eagles vs. Bills - Dec. 28, 4:25 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Eagles +1.5 (-115), Bills -1.5 (-105)

• Moneyline: Eagles +100, Bills -120

• Total: Over/under 43.5 (-110/-110)

The Eagles were recently on a three-game losing streak. They bounced back by blowing out the Raiders and then taking down the Commanders, although they were losing at halftime, and often looked like the less physical team. A.J. Brown looks like much more of a threat than he did early in the year, and Saquon Barkley is producing again, both of which are tremendous signs heading into the postseason.

The Bills’ defense is a serious issue, particularly with how bad they are at stopping the run. Josh Allen is battling through a foot injury, and he and James Cook have to play great every week for this team to go on a run, beating quality opponents. They took down the Patriots on the road a couple of weeks ago, but they also just squeaked past the Browns last week.

Both teams are very good, yet very flawed. Philly appears to be on their way to remedying their offensive woes, while the Bills don’t seem to have many answers for the defensive limitations that have plagued them all year. With Barkley returning to form, and the Bills allowing 5.4 yards per carry (31st), I can see the Birds running their way to victory here.

• Eagles vs. Bills pick: Eagles +1.5 (-115)

Bears vs. 49ers - Dec. 28, 8:20 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Bears +3 (-105), 49ers -3 (-115)

• Moneyline: Bears +145, 49ers -170

• Total: Over/under 52.5 (-110/-110)

What a job Ben Johnson has done, transforming a moribund franchise into one that leads the NFC North, one of the toughest divisions in football, with seven wins in their last eight games. Caleb Williams has impressed in recent weeks, and the running game is an ever-present threat. The defense has also climbed to 13th in EPA per play since the middle of the season, which is more than enough to support a consistent offense.

Kyle Shanahan should quietly be in the running for the Coach of the Year award for helping his team survive the litany of injuries they were dealt. Their only win against a team with a winning record since Week 5 was on Monday night against the slumping Colts, but the manner in which it was accomplished was impressive. Christian McCaffrey ran for 117 yards, while Brock Purdy had 205 yards, five touchdowns, and an interception.

I don’t believe that the 49ers will be a force in the playoffs, especially if George Kittle is hampered by an ankle sprain he suffered on Monday. That said, they are defined by their consistency, whereas there’s a little more volatility with Williams and the Bears. I’d feel more comfortable taking the favorites at home.

• Bears vs. 49ers pick: 49ers -3 (-115)

Rams vs. Falcons - Dec. 29, 8:15 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Rams -8 (-110), Falcons +8 (-110)

• Moneyline: Rams -450, Falcons +350

• Total: Over/under 49.5 (-110/-110)

While many view the Rams as Super Bowl favorites, they’re only third in their own division. That’s no fault of Matthew Stafford, who joined 2020 Aaron Rodgers as the only players in NFL history with at least 40 touchdowns and five or fewer interceptions after 15 games. LA’s defense dropped to 11th in EPA per play since Week 10, but they still have the ability to change any game.

Kirk Cousins has eight TDs and four INTs since taking over as the starter, most recently going for 197 yards, a pair of TDs and an INT in last Sunday’s 26-19 win over the Cardinals. The defense still generates pressure, but they don’t do much else well. Their key to succeeding, or at least remaining competitive, comes from running the ball, but they don’t always go about that in the best way possible.

This is a classic situation of knowing that the Rams are better than the Falcons, but being unsure if they will win by more than a touchdown. At their best, they will, but their defense has been coming down slightly, while Cousins has been pretty average under center. Because of Atlanta’s defensive regression, I’d lay the points.

• Rams vs. Falcons pick: Rams -8 (-110)

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