NFL Week 18 Picks Against the Spread: AFC North Win-And-Get-In, Will 49ers Upset the Seahawks?

• The Rams, Seahawks, and Jaguars are a league-best 11-5 against the spread

• The Buccaneers have the worst record ATS in football at 5-11

• Away dogs were the most profitable team demographic, covering 51.8 percent of spreads

It was a long time coming, and the playoffs are just around the corner. That means it’s time for my final batch of NFL best bets against the spread for the regular season.

I was totally off the mark with the Los Angeles Rams, who lost outright against the Atlanta Falcons on Monday Night Football. I picked the Minnesota Vikings over the Detroit Lions and the Miami Dolphins against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, but the Tennessee Titans’ late collapse against the New Orleans Saints was killer.

With teams either eyeing a run at the Super Bowl or where they’ll pick in the next NFL Draft, it’s time to get into the best bets of the weekend. For more info, see our Super Bowl odds and predictions.

Here are my favorite NFL Week 18 picks and bets against the spread.

• My 2025 NFL betting stats: 132-119-5 (52.6% ATS)

NFL Week 18 Picks ATS

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Panthers vs. Buccaneers - Jan. 3, 4:30 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Panthers +3 (-115), Buccaneers -3 (-105)

• Moneyline: Panthers +135, Buccaneers -169

• Total: Over/under 44.5 (-110/-110)

The Panthers are hoping to break the Buccaneers’ run of NFC South championships and will secure the fourth seed in the playoffs if they win on Sunday. They’ve beaten several top teams already, but they’ve been inconsistent against lower-tier opponents. Bryce Young picked a bad time to revert to his terrible form last week, going for 54 yards and an interception against the Seattle Seahawks, but he played about six weeks of solid football just before that.

It will take some sort of higher power to figure out what happened to the Buccaneers down the stretch. After their 6-2 start elated them into NFC title conversations, they lost seven of their last eight games, including a 23-20 contest in Carolina a couple of weeks ago. Baker Mayfield has been wildly inaccurate, and the defense has been both disappointing against the pass and incapable of coming up with stops in key moments.

As has been the case all year, the Bucs are more talented than the Panthers. That said, they do not play complementary football, and there haven’t been any signs they’ll break their losing streak, such as improved performances or players returning from injuries. The Panthers are flat-out better than the Bucs, and they can prove it once and for all on Saturday.

Panthers vs. Buccaneers pick: Panthers +3 (-115) at bet365

Seahawks vs. 49ers - Jan. 3, 8:00 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Seahawks -1 (-110), 49ers +1 (-110)

• Moneyline: Seahawks -115, 49ers -105

• Total: Over/under 49.5 (-110/-110)

The Seahawks are both terrifying on defense and highly effective on offense. Zach Charbonnet shrugged off the team’s rushing woes last week, going for 110 yards and two touchdowns on only 18 carries against the Panthers, while Sam Darnold became just the fifth player in NFL history to win 13 games in back-to-back seasons. Darnold’s ability to win high-leverage games in the playoffs remains in question, but this team has no flaws, and is led by an excellent coaching staff.

Speaking of excellent coaching, Kyle Shanahan is now the Coach of the Year favorite, largely because he helped the Niners survive an onslaught of injuries. Although they’re still without Nick Bosa and top draft pick Mykel Williams, they’re 12-4 and one win away from another NFC West title. Brock Purdy had his second straight game with five total touchdowns on Sunday, while Christian McCaffrey logged his second consecutive game with 117+ rushing yards.

This should be one of the best matchups of the year. The 49ers are absolutely rolling on offense and are in front of their fans, while the Seahawks’ defense has been impregnable, and they have a defensive genius on the headset. Seattle is healthier, but Purdy’s level of play, combined with Darnold’s turnover potential, leaves me wanting to back the Niners. 

Seahawks vs. 49ers pick: 49ers +1 (-110) at bet365

Saints vs. Falcons - Jan. 4, 1:00 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Saints +2.5 (-110), Falcons -2.5 (-110)

• Moneyline: Saints +125, Falcons -150

• Total: Over/under 43.5 (-110/-110)

Okay, Tyler Shough is better than I thought. His eyes are in the right places, and he’s helped Chris Olave achieve a career-best year outside the numbers. The defense also still ranks second in EPA allowed per play dating back to Week 10, and the team is riding a four-game winning streak.

Kirk Cousins has looked lively with the football at times, and he’s provided more consistency than there was with Michael Penix Jr. under center. Their usage of their running backs won’t enthrall any of their fans, but their defense can generate pressure (even if it’s leaky on the back end). The Falcons won the midyear matchup between the two in Shough’s third start, but the big story was the running game, as Shough also led the Saints in rushing with just 22 yards.

Neither of these teams is playing for much, but there seems to be more pride with the Saints. They’re headed on the road for this matchup, but they also get an extra day of rest since the Falcons took on the Rams on Monday Night Football in Week 17. I’m still far from convinced the Saints’ problems are solved, so now it’s about deciding if they will stay hot or find their level.

Saints vs. Falcons pick: Falcons -2.5 (-110) at bet365

Browns vs. Bengals - Jan. 4, 1:00 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Browns +7.5 (-110), Bengals -7.5 (-110)

• Moneyline: Browns +275, Bengals -350

• Total: Over/under 44.5 (-110/-110)

Myles Garrett’s pursuit of the single-season sack record had to wait until Week 18, largely because Aaron Rodgers seemed more concerned about not taking the historic sack than he was winning a football game. Shedeur Sanders has been pretty terrible overall, but he has shown signs of improvement. The Cleveland defense will always be nasty, and it just held the Steelers to only six points.

Joe Burrow and company lit up their opponent for the second straight week, amassing 82 points during that stretch. The Cincy defense also stepped up, although that isn’t saying much due to the offenses of the Dolphins and Cardinals. Zac Taylor made it clear that his team is approaching this game with the mindset of winning, but they’re just 6-10 on the year.

There’s no doubt that the Browns’ defense is going to be as bought in as ever. Being starved of playoff success (and experience) and Garrett’s shot at history should have them playing with their hair on fire, and that almost inevitably will lead to negative plays for the Bengals offense. The question is whether Sanders will play a mature game and keep his team within striking distance against a horrible defense.

Browns vs. Bengals pick: Browns +7.5 (-110) at bet365

Packers vs. Vikings - Jan. 4, 1:00 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Packers +6.5 (-110), Vikings -6.5 (-110)

• Moneyline: Packers +235, Vikings -290

• Total: Over/under 36.5 (-110/-110)

The Packers are expected to rest key players in their regular-season finale. That includes quarterback Jordan Love, who is still in concussion protocol, and other members of both the offense and defense. This team has plenty of depth, especially with Malik Willis in line to play, but they lost three straight games by eight, six, and 17 points.

I’d be surprised if J.J. McCarthy made his way onto the field for the Vikings’ final game of the year, given his lengthy injury history and general poor play. The Vikings are riding a four-game winning streak, but that’s largely been inspired by stellar play from Brian Flores’ defense. Max Brosmer has zero touchdowns and four interceptions, and he had 52 and 51 yards in his last two games (one start).

On one hand, the Vikings’ defense can win and dominate games on its own. On the other hand, Brosmer hasn’t shown any signs of life, and the Packers are a deep team with a backup QB in Willis who has flashed in recent weeks. I’d rather take the Packers, especially if this line creeps over seven points.

Packers vs. Vikings pick: Packers +6.5 (-110) at bet365

Cowboys vs. Giants - Jan. 4, 1:00 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Cowboys -4 (-110), Giants +4 (-110)

• Moneyline: Cowboys -220, Giants +180

• Total: Over/under 51.5 (-110/-110)

There’s no guarantee that the Cowboys will play their starters in Week 18, although they presumably will. They’ll run up against a Giants squad against whom they beat in overtime early this year, 40-37. Dak Prescott leads the NFL in passing yards, and Dallas’ treasure trove of weapons is impressive, although they still give up a ton of points.

The G-Men hung 34 points on the Raiders last week, aided by a 95-yard kickoff return touchdown from Deonte Banks. Jaxson Dart has been up and down as a rookie, but has consistently demonstrated superstar flash when he isn’t totally up against a wall. The defense has been terrible against the run and wildly inconsistent when the pass-rush doesn’t get home, but it has talent.

I don’t know that the Cowboys will bring their best stuff to this matchup, but I don’t know if the Giants are youthfully ignorant enough to beat their division rival. The Cowboys give up lots of points, but they can also score in bunches. I could see a world in which the Giants win a relatively meaningless game, which means that I have to back them on the spread.

Cowboys vs. Giants pick: Giants +4 (-110) at bet365

Titans vs. Jaguars - Jan. 4, 1:00 P.M. ET 

Spread: Titans +12.5 (-110), Jaguars -12.5 (-110)

Moneyline: Titans +500, Jaguars -700

Total: Over/under 47.5 (-110/-110)

Cam Ward’s box scores rarely tell the real story. The first-overall pick is often sent running for his life or putting his hands on his head after his eligibles drop his passes, but he has slung some dimes in recent weeks. The defense had made some strides but was just torched for 34 points by Tyler Shough, so there’s no reason to expect them to slow down a high-powered Jacksonville team.

Winners of seven straight, the Jags completely outplayed the Colts last week in a game that appears much closer than it was. Trevor Lawrence cooled off and had his first interception in over a month, but he’s still been exceptional recently. The defense also ranks seventh in EPA per play and 11th in success rate, which are both more than enough to support their offense.

Ward deserves more credit for the film he’s put together, even if it hasn’t translated to many wins. The Jags are 13-3 but will be playing to win this game as they still have a chance to secure the first seed in the conference, whereas the Titans aren’t playing for much. I’ve liked Ward’s fight all year, and I do believe that there will be a way for him to help cover this line.

Titans vs. Jaguars pick: Titans +12.5 (-110) at bet365

Colts vs. Texans - Jan. 4, 1:00 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Colts +10 (-110), Texans -10 (-110)

• Moneyline: Colts +400, Texans -550

• Total: Over/under 39.5 (-110/100)

I mentioned that the Colts were totally outplayed last week, and the raw numbers reflect that. They were outgained 370-204 in total yards, only averaged 3.7 yards per play, and turned the ball over twice, making it a relative miracle they only lost by six points. The defense is down to 22nd in success rate, and they’re tasking Riley Leonard with snapping their six-game losing streak.

The Texans are one of the hottest teams in football, having won eight straight games dating back to Nov. 9. They constantly win the point of attack, thanks to their defensive line, and they are nearly impenetrable in the secondary. C.J. Stroud is still inefficient, and the running game leaves a lot to be desired, but they have enough big-play juice to win games that stay in the region of 40 total points.

Leonard’s only game with real playing time came against the Jaguars on Dec. 7, when he went 18/29 for 145 yards, a rushing touchdown, and an interception. I have immense respect for Shane Steichen as a coach and think he can get to .500 with nearly any professional football player under center, but I also recognize the horror that will be a late-round draft pick rookie QB going against this Houston defense. I think this line is spot-on, but I have to lean toward the Texans.

Colts vs. Texans pick: Texans -10 (-110) at bet365

Jets vs. Bills - Jan. 4, 4:25 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Jets +7 (-110), Bills -7 (-110)

• Moneyline: Jets +280, Bills -360

• Total: Over/under 38 (-110/-110)

The Jets were absolutely lambasted by the Pats last week, falling 42-10 as Brady Cook went for 152 yards and an interception. The hapless, moribund franchise has been miserable this entire season and is in desperate need of retooling in the offseason to become competitive again. Whether or not they have a hope of doing that remains to be seen.

The Bills aren’t playing for anything, so we could see Mitchell Trubisky taking the field on Sunday. I don’t believe they’d rest all of their starters, even if Allen sits, which means that they will still have the majority of the people responsible for an 11-5 record going against, well, the Jets. That still sounds like a winning formula.

Trubisky only played meaningful snaps in one game last year, one that he finished 15/21 for 101 yards and a touchdown in a seven-point loss to the Patriots. James Cook played in that game, but he only had 28 yards. A stronger day from him on the ground—which is reasonable to expect, given his season—would probably still be enough to cover this line.

Jets vs. Bills pick: Bills -7 (-110) at bet365

Lions vs. Bears - Jan. 4, 4:25 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Lions +3 (-115), Bears -3 (-105)

• Moneyline: Lions +140, Bears -165

• Total: Over/under 50.5 (-110/-110)

The Lions basically never lose consecutive games with Dan Campbell on the sideline, which makes it quite remarkable that they enter the matchup riding a three-game losing streak. They’ve had days where Jared Goff became a turnover disaster and others where the running game couldn’t get going, and they’re missing a ton of defensive pieces. Amon-Ra St. Brown could miss this game, which would mark another huge blow for a team in unfamiliar territory.

The Bears’ showdown with the 49ers felt like playoff football. Although they gave up 42 points, they scored 38 of their own, and Caleb Williams made some excellent plays. Ben Johnson is proving himself to be a special head coach, and the Bears need to win to hold onto the second seed in the NFC, not to mention they’ll want to avenge a 52-21 loss to Detroit from Week 2.

There’s something off with the Lions right now (aside from the obvious injury issues), and the Bears are hungry and playing great football. There’s more structure and cohesive play-calling on the side of the Bears, and they’re actually playing for something rather than just trying to be a spoiler in this matchup. I’ll roll with Da Bears.

Lions vs. Bears pick: Bears -3 (-105) at bet365

Chargers vs. Broncos - Jan. 4, 4:25 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Chargers +12.5 (-110), Broncos -12.5 (-110)

• Moneyline: Chargers +550, Broncos -800

• Total: Over/under 37.5 (-110/-110)

Justin Herbert never had a chance against the Texans’ defensive front last week, thanks to his horrible offensive line. While Herbert played extremely clean football last year (until the playoffs), he has 13 interceptions to 26 touchdowns this time around. LA’s defense is easily in the top 10, but they still struggle whenever they play teams with nice defensive lines.

The Broncos need a win to guarantee they will receive the first seed in the AFC. They had a trademark “bleh” game against a lower-tier opponent, explained only by them increasing and decreasing Bo Nix’s level of responsibility according to the firepower of their opponent’s offense. While their defense has had a great year, they plummeted to 24th in EPA per play since Week 11.

I would worry about Herbert’s ability to remain upright in this game, except he has already been ruled out, since the Chargers don’t have anything to play for. That means that Trey Lance will be left to navigate the perils of the Chargers’ offensive line with only 13 passing attempts of experience this season. I don’t expect that to go well, although I also don’t know if the Broncos will put the pedal to the metal on offense.

Chargers vs. Broncos pick: Chargers +12.5 (-110) at bet365

Chiefs vs. Raiders - Jan. 4, 4:25 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Chiefs -5.5 (-110), Raiders +5.5 (-110)

• Moneyline: Chiefs -270, Raiders +220

• Total: Over/under 36.5 (-110/-110)

Chris Oladokun, shockingly, did not replace the production lost by Patrick Mahomes. The young backup had 66 yards and one touchdown in last week’s 20-13 loss to Denver, during which the defense played to a higher standard than it did when the team was still alive for the playoffs. This could be the last game of Travis Kelce’s career, so I actually expect them to come out and play with intensity.

The Raiders dominated their tank-off with the Giants last week, putting themselves in position to secure the first pick in the draft with a loss. I don’t believe that Pete Carroll is coaching with that goal in mind, but this team has also done next to nothing all year, particularly on offense. Geno Smith is likely out with an ankle injury, meaning that Kenny Pickett, who has 185 yards, a touchdown, and an interception this season, should get the start.

Pickett’s season QBR of 6.4 is hardly inspiring. The Chiefs’ defense looked alright against Denver last week, and although Oladokun certainly didn’t make winning plays, he also didn’t make losing ones. The Chiefs want to win for Kelce, and the Raiders want to lose for Fernando Mendoza, so this just makes a little bit too much sense.

Chiefs vs. Raiders pick: Chiefs -5.5 (-110) at bet365

Cardinals vs. Rams - Jan. 4, 4:25 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Cardinals +7 (-110), Rams -7 (-110)

• Moneyline: Cardinals +260, Rams -320

• Total: Over/under 46.5 (-110/-110)

I feel like I say this every week, but Jacoby Brissett is doing a solid job for the Cardinals—not amazing, but he has 21 touchdowns to just seven interceptions, and he has 3,123 passing yards in only starts. The defense has surrendered the fourth-most points per game (28.2) in the entire league, and their most recent losses have come by 23, seven, 20, and 28 points. They last played the Rams on Dec. 7, when they fell 45-17.

Sean McVay confirmed that his starters will play in Week 18, likely because they just spit the bit in a loss to the Falcons on Monday Night Football. Matthew Stafford’s outstanding season came to a screeching halt in that matchup as he threw three interceptions, but he’s been most excellent this entire season. It’s troubling that the team’s excellent defense plummeted to 25th in EPA per play since the start of Week 13, but they have the talent to recover.

I still like the Rams a lot, and I trust Stafford to shake off a rare bad game and get back to MVP form. The biggest question for me is whether Brissett will continue to produce strong box scores, even if his team doesn’t have a chance of winning the game, against a talented but slumping defense. I ultimately believe he will do enough to keep this as a one-score game, although I’d be shocked if the Rams didn’t win. 

Cardinals vs. Rams pick: Cardinals +7 (-110) at bet365

Dolphins vs. Patriots - Jan. 4, 4:25 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Dolphins +10.5 (-110), Patriots -10.5 (-110)

• Moneyline: Dolphins +425, Patriots -575

• Total: Over/under 45.5 (-110/-110)

Quinn Ewers looked like a natural in Mike McDaniel’s motion offense, which has similarities to that of Steve Sarkisian. He and De’Von Achane helped the Dolphins move the ball around the field and score 20 points on the Buccaneers, more than the 17 they allowed to their in-state rival. Aside from giving up 25 points to the Bengals, the Miami defense has actually been pretty solid for at least six weeks.

The Pats need to play Drake Maye and their starters since they need to win to have a shot at the first seed in the AFC, depending on what happens with the Broncos. They’ve steamrolled most of the inferior teams they played this year, including a 42-10 demolition job against the Jets last week. Maye has also been sensational all year, although the Dolphins only lost by six points when these teams met in Week 2.

This game will take place in predicted 28-degree weather in Foxborough, Massachusetts. That’s normally been a pitfall for the Dolphins, although with Ewers under center instead of Tagovailoa, that’s now an unknown. Vrabel has kept the Patriots confident and unified all year, which is why they’ve been able to blow out bad teams, although the Dolphins have been playing decent football recently.

Dolphins vs. Patriots pick: Dolphins +10.5 (-110) at bet365

Commanders vs. Eagles - Jan. 4, 4:25 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Commanders +7 (-110), Eagles -7 (-110)

• Moneyline: Commanders +270, Eagles -340

• Total: Over/under 41 (-110/-110)

Josh Johnson is expected to get another start for the Commanders, while Laremy Tunsil and Tyler Biadasz also look like they will be included on the list of absentees. That’s on top of the incredible number of other players who have dealt with injuries this year, which is a major reason the team lost 10 of its last 11 games. Jacory Croskey-Merritt’s 72-yard touchdown run helped make last week’s seven-point loss to the Cowboys look closer than it was, but the Commanders’ defense has basically played them out of every game for three months.

An Eagles win and a Bears loss would move them into the second seed in the conference, which warrants them playing their starters. Saquon Barkley has been excellent against this Commanders defense, and he added to his resume with 132 yards and a touchdown when they played two weekends ago. There’s been a little more offensive innovation and cohesiveness lately, but it’s Philly’s defense that has suddenly rounded into championship form.

There’s just no reason to bet on Josh Johnson keeping this game close on the road with the Philly defense playing as well as it has. The simple difference in points allowed per game (18.8 to 27.1) tells the story, not to mention the Eagles are still playing for something important, whereas the Commanders have been done for more than a month. Don’t overthink this one. 

Commanders vs. Eagles pick: Eagles -7 (-110) at bet365

Ravens vs. Steelers - Jan. 4, 8:20 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Ravens -3.5 (-105), Steelers +3.5 (-115)

• Moneyline: Ravens -190, Steelers +160

• Total: Over/under 40.5 (-110/-110)

The battle for the AFC North is here! Lamar Jackson reportedly has a less than 50 percent chance of being ready in time for kick-off, but don’t fear, Derrick Henry ran for 444 yards and six touchdowns in his last three games. The Baltimore defense has been pretty average in the back half of the season, and while they completely wiped out the Steelers running game when they played on Dec. 7, they let Aaron Rodgers control every aspect of the passing attack.

The Steelers bottled it against the Browns last weekend as Aaron Rodgers looked more concerned with not being sacked by Myles Garrett than he was with winning a football game. T.J. Watt has a chance to be back on the field, although his level of impact remains in question, while DK Metcalf is out while serving his two-game suspension. They’ll need to be better against the run, seeing as they relinquished 217 yards and a TD when these teams last met.

It would be so Steelers to go 9-8 and lose two straight games to throw away the division title against a Ravens team that, frankly, doesn’t deserve to be in the playoffs. They rank 13th in yards allowed per carry (4.2) but were also torched on the ground during the teams’ last meeting, and Henry has been in legacy form recently. Without Metcalf, who had 148 yards in the last matchup, I see the Ravens being right there, if not winning… but that’s not enough reason to expect a blowout.

Ravens vs. Steelers pick: Steelers +3.5 (-115) at bet365

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