C.J. Stroud had five fumbles and an interception last week
The Texans defense scored a pick-six and fumble-six in the Wild Card
The Patriots won 13 of their last 14 games
The Houston Texans are visiting the New England Patriots for a Divisional Round matchup in the NFL Playoffs, and I’ve assembled my favorite same-game parlay and player prop picks for the matchup.
The Texans’ stifling defense just locked down the Pittsburgh Steelers, holding them to only six points in their 30-6 victory. C.J. Stroud fumbled the ball five times and threw an interception, yet they covered the spread by 21 points.
The Pats’ high-powered offense, led by MVP candidate Drake Maye, didn’t look great against the Los Angeles Chargers. However, they allowed just three points of their own, walking away as the victors, 16-3.
Check out the latest Super Bowl odds and predictions here.
This matchup will send one team to the conference championship game and the other to a long vacation. In that spirit, here are my best Texans vs. Patriots same-game parlay picks.
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| Best Texans vs Patriots SGP Picks | Odds | Get up to $200 in Bonus Bets at bet365 |
|---|---|---|
| Leg 1: Drake Maye Over 34.5 Rushing Yards | -110 | CLAIM HERE |
| Leg 2: C.J. Stroud Under 0.5 Interceptions | -130 | CLAIM HERE |
| Leg 3: TreVeyon Henderson Under 9.5 Rushing Attempts | +100 | CLAIM HERE |
| Leg 4: Texans +3 | +100 | CLAIM HERE |
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Maye ran the ball 10 times for 66 yards against the Los Angeles Chargers and went over in three of his last five games. The Patriots’ offensive line also didn’t do a great job in pass protection against the Chargers, which created scrambling opportunities for the youthfully spry Maye.
The Texans ranked seventh in sack percentage, but they can generate pressure seemingly any time they want to with Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter. Maye is willing to run and will be under siege, meaning he’ll be flushed out of the pocket and into rushing yards…hopefully, more than 34.5 of them.
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Stroud tossed a bone-headed interception in the red zone against the Steelers and now has three picks in his last three games, although he cashed the under on this line in four of his last six. The Pats also weren’t excellent at creating interceptions, ranking 19th in percentage of plays that ended with their opponents throwing INTs.
The Texans’ defense might just be the most intimidating unit in the entire NFL, and they scored two touchdowns by themselves last weekend. The key to the Texans winning this game is centered on Stroud playing clean football, and I have no doubt that will be emphasized repeatedly throughout the week.
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Henderson had a quality rookie season for the Pats, yet he was third of three ball-carriers against the Chargers, with nine attempts to Drake Maye’s and Rhamondre Stevenson’s 10. That’s a small difference, but it shows that Stevenson is still the lead back, and that was in a game in which the Patriots led and could afford to run the ball more than most games.
While the Pats are fifth in average time of possession per game, the Texans are fourth, and they do not want this to become a shootout. That means extended possessions and more time on the sideline for the Patriots’ offense, all of which leads me to believe that Henderson will cash the under.
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The main problem with the Texans is that it’s never quite clear when Stroud is going to lose his head and miss an open throw or fumble, say, five times in one game. However, he’s capable of playing turnover-free football, and that leverages the best unit in this game: the Houston defense.
Drake Maye and company’s win last weekend was their first against a team with a winning record since Week 5. Franchise turnarounds also typically don’t happen this quickly, and Maye is going to get the toughest test of his professional career, while his defense was 18th in success rate.
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