The Houston defense allowed 277.2 yards and 17.4 points per game this season
DK Metcalf’s team-high 850 yards, 364 more than the next closest player
The Steelers allowed two TD catches over 50 yards in the fourth quarter last week
While the Houston Texans facing off against the Pittsburgh Steelers may not be generating as many headlines, some fantastic storylines are entering this game. On one side is Aaron Rodgers, who is likely making his final start as an NFL quarterback. On the other hand, the Texans are a team loaded with young talent but unable to translate that into postseason success.
We’ll provide insights into our favorite same-game parlay for this AFC Wild Card matchup below, using odds from FanDuel Sportsbook. Join FanDuel today and claim your welcome offer: Bet $5, Get $300 in Bonus Bets if Your Bet Wins. Get more info in our FanDuel Sportsbook review.
| Best Texans vs Steelers SGP Picks | Odds | Get $300 in Bonus Bets at FanDuel |
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| Leg 1: Texans -3 | -108 | CLAIM HERE |
| Leg 2: DK Metcalf 70+ Receiving Yards | +148 | CLAIM HERE |
| Leg 3: Nico Collins 70+ Receiving Yards | -122 | CLAIM HERE |
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The Texans don’t have many fond memories of the postseason, but that will change on Monday night.
We have been watching the Seelers closely over the final few weeks, and there is nothing to make us believe they will win this game. While their mediocre defense may stall CJ Stroud and the Texans, they are also vulnerable to big plays. We saw Lamar Jackson and Zay Flowers connect for two 50+ yard touchdown catches in the fourth quarter to take a four-point lead. The Pittsburgh defense was bailed out by poor play by Baltimore's defense and special teams, allowing them to back into an AFC North title.
The deciding factor in this game will be the Texans' defense. They have been the best in the NFL, allowing just 277.2 yards and 17.4 points per game. Their pass rush, led by Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter, has been suffocating. While the Steelers' offensive line is good, even they will struggle to contain the duo. That will put pressure on the againg Aaron Rodgers, which often results in a quick throwaway or sack.
It is also important to note the role the Steelers’ schedule played in their division title. They won four of their final five games, but none of those teams qualified for the playoffs. Pittsburgh’s only win over a playoff team came against New England in Week 3. Although they lost to the Bears by only three, they suffered double-digit defeats against the Packers, Bills, and Chargers.
The Texans have plenty of flaws, but there is nothing to indicate the Steelers can expose them in this AFC Wild Card matchup.
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I know we just talked above about how little we think of the Steelers’ offense, but we still love this bet.
Metcalf’s season stats aren’t pretty, and they are made worse by his suspension for the final three weeks of the season. However, that has been the result of a bad Steelers offense. The receiver still leads the team with 850 yards, which is 364 more than the next closest player.
We expect Rodgers to focus on Metcalf, who is the only dangerous pass catcher on the roster. The receiver has the strength and speed to beat Houston’s secondary and will be extra motivated to make up for his costly suspension.
It may not come until late in the game when the score is out of hand, but we believe Metcalf will surpass this total on Monday.
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Collins has incredible talent, but consistency has been an issue. We blame some of that on the Houston offense, which never lived up to the hype over the last few seasons. That inconsistency is why he has only surpassed this total eight times, but he is set up to do so again against the Steelers.
The Steelers' defense regressed significantly in 2025, failing to support their mediocre offense. That was no more evident than last week, when Zay Flowers beat the secondary for 50 and 64-yard touchdowns in the final quarter. He burned the Steelers’ secondary, making Lamar Jackson’s job easy.
The reason we are talking about Flowers is to show what speedy playmakers can do for the Steelers. Collins and Flowers posted the same 40-yard dash time (4.42), meaning the Texans receiver can repeat that success.
With the Texans' run game being weak, expect the offense to lean on the pass en route to a road playoff win.
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