After scoring four goals in a 4-0 victory over Washington in game three of their series, the Carolina Hurricanes are in a favorable position to carry over their momentum into game four as they face off against a Capitals defense who struggles in coverage. Later in the night, we target the over on another team total as the Edmonton Oilers front line battle it out against the Vegas Golden Knights Adin Hill who has struggled to defend their net since the start of the playoffs.
Since the start of the regular season, Carolina has left no doubt as to who possessed the best offense as the Hurricanes comfortably led the league in Expected Goals For in All Situations and in 5-on-5 play for a majority of the year. Scarier yet, the Hurricanes front line have been able to sustain their high level of play throughout the playoffs as their front line currently leads all playoff contenders in Expected Goals For with an average of 4.36 Expected Goals per game.
Against Washington, the Hurricanes offense are in a favorable position to sustain their high level of play and consistently pressure the Capitals net as they face off against a back line who ranks 15th overall in Expected Goals Against in All Situations. While they did manage to hold the Hurricanes to an Expected Goal of 2.85 in game three, the Capitals have struggled to give their goaltending the coverage they need throughout the playoffs as they are averaging 3.46 Expected Goals Against.
Even with Logan Thompson playing at a very high level, the Capitals Vezina Trophy contender is vulnerable to getting beat as the Hurricanes versatility will have him constantly scrambling across the crease. Especially when their top line is on the ice as Seth Jarvis, Sebastian Aho, and Andrei Svechnikov all average over 0.30 Expected Goals per game. Should the Carolina Hurricanes team total drop down to a flat three, then consider increasing the size of your wager.
Even though Seth Jarvis has yet to score a goal in their series against Washington, the Hurricanes forward has flirted with it as he comes off a game three performance where he generated an Expected Goal of 0.33. His center Sebastian Aho helps open up wider shooting lanes for Jarvis to exploit by pulling defensive attention away from him which drastically increases the quality of his Shots on Goal. Expect Jarvis to continue to pressure the Capitals net at a high rate and score his first goal of the series.
Like the Hurricanes, the Edmonton Oilers front line have also been one of the more productive units in the league as their offense ended the year ranked third overall in Expected Goals For in All Situations with an average of 3.38 Expected Goals per game. Throughout the playoffs, their front line has managed to elevate their level of play as their offense heads into game four of their series against Vegas averaging 3.84 Expected Goals per game in All Situations and 2.73 in 5-on-5 Play.
With the Golden Knights Adin Hill struggling to play at a competitive level, the Oilers high powered offense will have the opportunity to light up the scoreboard on Monday night. As of writing, the Golden Knights starting goalie is averaging 3.14 Goals Against per game. A stunning low level of play when compared to his regular season performance as Hill conceded only 2.47 Goals Against per game throughout the year. Expect Hill to continue to struggle with the Oilers aggressive attack consistently pressuring his net.
Positive regression looms large over Leon Draisaitl after he failed to score in his last game out as the Oilers Hart Memorial Trophy contender heads into game four averaging 0.44 Expected Goals and 3.39 Shots on Goal per game. Especially with Connor McDavid playing alongside him as the future hall of famer excels at putting his teammates in high quality scoring opportunities while weaving the puck through opposing back lines.
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