Best NHL Prop Bets Today: Positive Regression Looms Large Over Florida and Toronto

Even though only two goals were scored in game four, positive regression looms large over the Florida Panthers and Toronto Maple Leafs front lines per their results in Expected Goals. Later in the night, we target the over on a team total as the Edmonton Oilers are in a position to light up the scoreboard as they face off against a Vegas Golden Knights defense who receives minimal support from their goaltending.

Florida Panthers vs. Toronto Maple Leafs - Prop Bets (7:00 PM, EST)

Full Game Over 5.5 (-120) at BetMGM Sportsbook

After scoring at least four goals in the first three games of their series, the Toronto Maple Leafs offense fell hard back down to reality as they were held scoreless in game four. Even though Sergei Bobrovsky managed to keep a clean sheet, Toronto had no issue with consistently pressuring the former Vezina Trophy winners net as the Maple Leafs finished the contest with an Expected Goal of 2.62. The reigning Stanley Cup champions meanwhile finished the contest with an Expected Goal of 3.43.

Heading into game five, expect the Toronto Maple Leafs to continue to pressure the Panthers net at a consistent rate as their offense ranks in the top half of the board in Expected Goals For in All Situations with an average of 3.18 Expected Goals per game. Especially with their offense fielding four players who average over 0.30 Expected Goals per game as their versatility will have the Panthers coverage stretched out thin which opens up higher quality shooting lanes in front of their net. 

As for the Panthers, their offense is in a favorable position to thrive as they face off against a Maple Leafs back line who ranks 22nd in Expected Goals Against in All Situations. Even with Anthony Stolarz playing at a very high level throughout the playoffs, the Toronto goalie will be forced to constantly shift across the crease which opens up gaps in his net beside him. This is due to the Panthers excelling at generating high quality Shots on Goal as their offense ranks second in Expected Goals For in All Situations.

Matthew Tkachuk Anytime Goalscorer

After scoring three goals in the first three games of the playoffs, Matthew Tkachuk has failed to find the back of the net since as he has been held scoreless in his last six games. A stunning performance for the Panthers star forward as Tkachuk averages 0.47 Expected Goals and 3.01 Shots on Goal per game. With his linemates providing him high quality scoring opportunities by commanding defensive attention away from him, expect Tkachuk to round back into form and score his fourth goal of the playoffs.

Edmonton Oilers vs. Vegas Golden Knights - Prop Bets (9:30 PM, EST)

Edmonton Oilers Team Total Over 3 (-140) at BetMGM Sportsbook

The Edmonton Oilers are just one win away from stamping their ticket to the Western Conference Finals as they possess a 3-1 lead over the Vegas Golden Knights. Even with Calvin Pickard going down with an injury, Stuart Skinner managed to round back into competitive form as he held the Golden Knights scoreless in their 3-0 victory in game four. Their result in Expected Goals backed up their success as the Oilers finished the contest with an Expected Goal of 2.90.

With Adin Hill struggling to play at a competitive level since the start of the playoffs, the Oilers front line will be in a favorable position to light up the scoreboard and close out the series. As of writing, Hill is averaging 3.15 Goals Against per game and a .876 Save Percentage. Even with his back line providing him coverage, Hill has struggled to wall off the Oilers spread out attack. Should the Oilers team total climb up to 3.5, then reduce the size of your wager.

Connor McDavid Anytime Goalscorer

It has been a quiet series for Connor McDavid in regard to scoring goals as the three time Hart Memorial Trophy winner has only scored once in his four games against Vegas. Even though he failed to find the back of the net in game four, McDavid was still able to pressure their net at a heavy rate as he finished the contest with an Expected Goal of 0.34. Expect positive regression to swing towards McDavid’s way and back the hall of famer to score a goal.