Even though game four between Edmonton and Dallas stayed under the listed total, positive regression looms large in the goal scoring department as both teams nearly eclipsed an Expected Goal of 4.00. Especially with the Stars back line ranking below league average in Expected Goals Against in All Situations which opens up higher quality shooting lanes for the Oilers to exploit.
The Edmonton Oilers high powered offense were on full display in game four of the Western Conference Finals as they went on to win 4-1 while generating an Expected Goal of 3.77. Forty year old Corey Perry led the charge in regard to creating pressure as he finished the contest with an Expected Goal of 0.80. Their result in Expected Goals has been on par with what they have been able to do throughout the postseason as the Oilers offense currently ranks second overall in Expected Goals For in All Situations.
With the Dallas Stars back line struggling in coverage as their below league average rank in Expected Goals Against in All Situations indicates, the Oilers offense will continue to pressure their net at a consistent rate. Factor in the Oilers defense also steadily falling down the board in Expected Goals Against and the Stars will have the opportunity to match their output and contribute towards the over. For some more exposure, escalator bet the full game over by sprinkling smaller wagers on the alternate totals.
With his back line conceding an alarming amount of high quality Shots on Goal towards his net, the Stars Jake Oettinger has struggled to play at a competitive level in their series against Edmonton. As of writing, Oettinger is averaging 3.53 Goals Against per game and a 0.864 Save Percentage in the Western Conference Finals. With the Oilers fielding six players who average more than 0.25 Expected Goals per game, their versatility will keep Oettinger consistently scrambling which opens up wider gaps in his net.
With Zach Hyman expected to miss the rest of the playoffs with an injury, Connor McDavid may take it upon himself to generate more offense in the Edmonton Oilers top line to help mask his loss of production. In game four alone, the three time Hart Memorial Trophy winner was able to finish the contest with an Expected Goal of 0.30. Should Hyman’s absence result in an uptick in Shots on Goal, then the future hall of famer will be in a great position to round back into form and score his sixth goal of the playoffs.
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