UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brown - Odds, Predictions & Picks

• Gabriel Bonfim makes his return to clash with veteran Randy Brown in a defining Welterweight showdown

• Ismael Bonfim is on a bounce-back against Chris Padilla in a thrilling co-main event

• Ricky Simon steps up against Raoni Barcelos in an unmissable fight that promises all-out action

UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brown Odds

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UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brown - Picks & Predictions

Gabriel Bonfim vs. Randy Brown - Welterweight Division

• Our pick: Gabriel Bonfim (-205) at FanDuel

Matt Schnell vs. Joseph Morales - Flyweight Division

• Our pick: Joseph Morales (-330) at FanDuel

Chris Padilla vs. Ismael Bonfim - Lightweight Division

• Our pick: Ismale Bonfim  (-215) at FanDuel

Ricky Simon vs. Raoni Barcelos - Bantamweight Division

• Our pick: Ricky Simon (-180) at FanDuel

Christian Leroy Duncan vs. Marco Tulio - Middleweight Division

• Our pick: Marco Tulio (-200) at FanDuel

Gabriel Bonfim vs. Randy Brown - Welterweight Division

This Saturday night will see Gabriel Bonfim “Merretinha” with a point to prove. The Bonfim Brothers Academy-trained striker is out for redemption after an abrupt ending to his last outing. The Brazilian will be looking to reassert himself as one of the Welterweight Division’s most promising prospects. 

With two inches of height and some five inches of powerful reach on his side, Randy “Rudeboy” Brown is a formidable, tricky, seasoned opponent..

Bonfim’s ground game is volatile and his swift finishes have been the defining feature of his armoury. If he can drag Brown down to the mat early, he’ll be well within range to end things. However, the cutting jabs of Brown and his ability to remain level-headed under pressure have the potential to draw out the fight. 

This match-up is a clash between two titans: power vs. precision. Considering the Brazilian’s undeniable grit and suffocating submission game, we have Bonfim to edge this one at -205 with FanDuel.

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Matt Schnell vs. Joseph Morales - Flyweight Division

This Flyweight contest pits action-man brawler Matt Schnell against the composed and clinical Joseph Morales.

Homegrown talent Matt “Danger” Schnell is entering the cage as the underdog. Schnell’s rapid striking ability and courage have made him a fan favourite. He’s up against Joseph Morales, who may not be the finished article, but is composed and technically polished.

The aim for Schnell is a good old-fashioned scrap-off, messy exchanges, anything that will rattle Morales If Morales can maintain a sustained distance and turn the tide towards his preferred pace, the indisputable skillset of the Californian should take over. 

This matchup will be a firework display, but will likely end in steadied late control by Morales, who we have at -330 with FanDuel.

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Chris Padilla vs. Ismael Bonfim - Lightweight Division

Next up, a Lightweight clash that sees technical striker Ismael Bonfim square off with the ever-unpredictable Chris Padilla.

This Lightweight showdown has all the makings of a high-tempo thriller: the younger of the two Bonfim brothers, Ismael, carries some truly formidable flair with his liquid footwork, crisp boxing, and ability to switch levels. After getting a taste of defeat in his last outing, there’s no doubt Bonfim will be looking to steep the Bonfim name in greatness once again.

Padilla is all too familiar with chaos. His aggression could force Bonfim into an uncomfortable position. If he can narrow the distance, Padilla will be looking to trade dirty boxing exchanges to test Bonfim’s chin in the early rounds. Bonfim needs to stay cool and disciplined during the heat, keeping space open for technique and speed to take over.

Bonfim has something to prove.  With a skillset primed for high-pressure moments like this, we have the Brazilian to win by late stoppage or a convincing points win at -215 with FanDuel.

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Ricky Simon vs. Raoni Barcelos - Bantamweight Division

This Bantamweight fight will bring two relentless contenders head-to-head as Ricky Simon meets Raoni Barcelos in a matchup built for fireworks.

Homegrown talent Simon and Brazilian veteran Barcelos are set for a barnburner matchup in the Bantamweight Division as they lock horns. Simon is known for his tenacious wrestling ability and an engine that never seems to slow down. Coming off the back of two wins, he’ll be looking to close the distance, drag Barcelos into deep water, and make every second a misery for his opponent.

Barcelos, on the other hand, is a tough nut to crack. He’s more than capable of countering overextensions with punishingly accurate trades. If he’s able to edge some space and calculate Simon’s entries, he has the ability to finish things with a statement knockout.  

With Simon looking to press and Barcelos pursuing a perfectly timed strike, the weight will be on Simon to grind out a cardio-heavy slog. We have Simon to clinch this one at -164 with FanDuel, but it’s a close call.

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Christian Leroy Duncan vs. Marco Tulio - Middleweight Division

The first fight on the main card sees England’s creative finisher Christian Leroy Duncan face off with disciplined powerhouse Marco Tulio in a chess match of style.

Duncan is one of the UK’s most ingenious strikers, bringing a free-flowing, volatile rhythm to his fights with stance switch-ups, spinning attacks and a seemingly instinctive aptitude to force a creative opening. 

Tulio is a bastion of discipline. His reliance on forward pressure, calculated jabs and clinch dominance is expertly plotted to stamp out the chaos that fighters like Duncan flourish in. Backing Duncan into the fence and trying to stamp out pace-shifts will be his best bet, but only if he’s given the space to do so. 

In this captivating clash, Tulio will be looking to control the fight, which makes him the safer pick. This is why we’ve had to edge the decision his way at -180 with FanDuel. Still, one moment of brilliance from Duncan and the night could be over.

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How to Watch UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brown

• Location: UFC APEX, Las Vegas, United States

• When: Sunday, November 9, 2025

• Time: Prelims at 4:00 PM ET, Main Card at 7:00 PM ET

• How: ESPN+