UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh - Odds, Predictions & Picks

• Former two-time flyweight champion Brandon Moreno returns to Mexico City looking to reassert himself in a wide-open title picture

• Explosive kickboxer David Martinez looks to build on his statement win over Rob Font and send a fading legend into retirement on home soil

• Daniel Zellhuber is looking to bounce back after back-to-back defeats against veteran King Green

UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh

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UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh - Picks & Predictions

Brandon Moreno vs. Lone’er Kavanagh - Flyweight Division

• Our pick: Brandon Moreno (-590) at FanDuel

Marlon Vera vs. David Martinez - Bantamweight Division

• Our pick: David Martinez (-310) at FanDuel

Daniel Zellhuber vs. King Green - Lightweight Division

• Our pick: Daniel Zellhuber (-500) at FanDuel

Edgar Chairez vs. Felipe Bunes - Flyweight Division

• Our pick: Edgar Chairez (-310) at FanDuel

Imanol Rodriguez vs. Kevin Borjas - Flyweight Division

• Our pick: Imanol Rodriguez (-470) at FanDuel

Brandon Moreno vs. Lone’er Kavanagh - Flyweight Division

The main event finds former two-time champion Brandon Moreno at a familiar crossroads. With long-time kingpin Alexandre Pantoja no longer holding the crown and Joshua Van set to defend against Tatsuro Taira in April, a path back to title contention has suddenly reopened for “The Assassin Baby”. 

That begins with a statement victory on Saturday. At 32, Moreno still possesses the finest jab in the division and underrated wrestling nous, but the mileage is beginning to show. His trademark striking output has tapered off across recent appearances, and a chin once viewed as iron has begun to show cracks under sustained fire. While his boxing fundamentals are solid, Moreno may need to lean on his grappling game to pass this test.

Kavanagh accepted this assignment following Asu Almabayev’s withdrawal two months back, giving him enough time to prepare despite the substitute tag. The 26-year-old Englishman headlines with a dynamic striking repertoire, rapid hands, thudding kicks and impeccably timed spinning techniques of a man beyond his years.

His approach to neutralising takedowns focuses on footwork and push kicks to keep a distance, though he’s shown the ability to transform grappling situations into chaotic scrambles rather than accepting inferior positioning. The one defeat to his name came last August, when Charles Johnson overcame an early deficit with a brutal finish, an outcome that has put a question to Kavanagh’s durability.

Moreno is a rightful favorite here. Kavanagh has never operated over five rounds, let alone inside a hostile Mexico City arena. The case for an upset if his strikes trouble Moreno early, but the champion's experience and wrestling should carry the night. Back Moreno to storm this title fight at -590 with FanDuel.

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Marlon Vera vs. David Martinez - Bantamweight Division

The co-main event feels like a passing of the torch moment, where grizzled veteran Marlon Vera looks to halt his slide, and explosive youngster David Martinez looks to make a name for himself.

Vera has been a bantamweight staple for over a decade, but three straight losses suggest the wall is approaching and maybe faster than expected. His hand speed was never blinding, and now the durable Chito has become alarmingly hittable, absorbing more punishment across his last three fights than most Bantamweights absorb in their career. His kicks are still deadly and his grappling remains underrated, with decisive sweeps and punishing top pressure, but a takedown defence that has always been shaky.

Meanwhile, Martinez arrives as the lesser-known sibling, with his sister Melissa once being recognized as one of the best female Straweights.  “Black Spartan” is a compact, explosive kickboxer with tremendous knockout power, utilizing sharp combinations, heavy attacks and spinning kicks to punish opponents. He passed the Rob Font test with flying colors, controlling distance against the veteran, and his takedown defence has held firm all the while. And training year-round at Mexico City’s altitude gifts him a cardio advantage the longer the fight drags on.

Vera has never been stopped by strikes in 35 professional fights, but that streak looks set to end this Saturday. Martinez is faster and hits just as hard, meaning Vera’s path to the mat is looking increasingly blocked. Expect the younger of the men to pour on damage early and take this one, back Martinez now at -310 with FanDuel.

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Daniel Zellhuber vs. King Green - Lightweight Division

Up next is a Lightweight bout, in which it will be interesting to see how the young prospect Daniel Zellhuber handles the skilled veteran King Green.

The 26-year-old has proven himself difficult to weigh up in his six fights in the UFC so far, with his three victories marking him out as a potential prospect and his three defeats leaving fans frustrated. With a 77-inch reach, the Mexican regularly makes use of his size by utilizing both fast jabs and accurate kicks, though he’s vulnerable to fighters that are aggressive and take bouts to him. With a solid ground game, there are reasons to believe that Zellhuber can improve his flaws and bounce back from his last two defeats to become a real force, though he needs to prove he has what it takes to defeat stubborn rivals.

At 13 years Zellhuber’s senior, Green brings a wealth of experience and offers a totally different puzzle for the favorite to solve. Green is a +360 underdog but he has the ability to make life tough for his opponent if able to utilize his strong wrestling game. The American is due to turn 40 in September and while he would have the ability to trouble Zellhuber on his best form, blowout defeats to each of Jalin Turner, Paddy Pimblett and Mauricio Ruffy in the last two years suggest his best days may be behind him.

Zellhuber is a commanding -500 favorite to come out on top and he looks worth backing on FanDuel to return to winning ways.

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Edgar Chairez vs. Felipe Bunes - Flyweight Division

Attention now turns back to the Flyweight division, with the promising Edgar Chairez coming up against the battle hardened veteran Felipe Bunes. 

Fighting on home turf, Mexican Chairez has had a fairly light schedule of late, fighting just four times since July 2023. His record is difficult to weigh up, too, considering his two victories came against lowly opposition and his two defeats saw him take both Joshua Van and Tatsuro Taira to the scorecards - two men who will face off for the title in April.

An athletic fighter who’s comfortable both on his feet and on the ground, there’s certainly a feeling that Chairez can climb the rankings if he can put together a sequence of wins, though this opponent should provide him with a stern test.

Brazilian fighter Bunes is giving both six years and a two inch reach advantage away here, which could explain why he’s such a firm +240 underdog with FanDuel, though there are reasons to believe that this grappler can cause Chairez some issues. Bunes’ best chance looks likely to come from his work on the ground and it will be interesting to see how Chairez handles a fighter with a similar style to Taira.

Expect this to be closer than the odds imply, though the younger man is still expected to prevail and you can back Chairez at -310 with FanDuel.

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Imanol Rodriguez vs. Kevin Borjas - Flyweight Division

Our final bout in this preview is another intriguing Flyweight bout, which sees undefeated prospect Imanol Rodriguez make his promotional debut against Kevin Borjas.

Aside from an exhibition defeat to Joseph Morales last March, Rodriguez has made short work of his six professional fights to date, with the 26-year-old yet to be taken beyond the second round by his opponents. The ‘Hitman’ has plenty of finesse to compliment his ferocious speed and power and he looks to have been found a good opportunity to open his account in the UFC.

Meanwhile, Borjas has made a mixed start to his career in the UFC, winning one of his four fights with the promotion to date. The Peruvian has quickly earned a reputation for being tough work if allowed to turn things into a brawl, but he’s vulnerable to fighters capable of taking the fight to him, putting him up against it here. Borjas will need to survive the opening rounds if he is to stand any chance, but Rodriguez is expected to be too strong.

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How to Watch UFC Fight Night: Brandon Moreno vs. Lone’er Kavanagh

• Location: Arena CDMC, Mexico City, Mexico

• When: Saturday, February 28

• Time: 08:00 PM ET

• How: ESPN