UFC 326: Holloway vs. Oliveira 2 - Odds, Predictions & Picks

• UFC “BMF” champion Max Holloway defends his title against a familiar opponent in Las Vegas on Saturday, March 7

• Former lightweight champion Charles Oliveira is looking for revenge after losing to Holloway 11 years ago in their first clash

• Caio Borralho and Reinier de Ridder meet in a middleweight bout as both fighters aim to bounce back from defeats in their last fights

UFC 326: Holloway vs. Oliveira 2 - Odds

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UFC Fight Night: Volkanovski vs. Lopes 2 - Picks & Predictions

Max Holloway vs. Charles Oliveira - Lightweight Division

• Our pick: Max Holloway by KO/TKO (+170) at FanDuel

Caio Borralho vs. Reinier de Ridder - Middleweight Division

• Our pick: Caio Borralho (-310) at FanDuel

Rob Font vs. Raul Rosas Jr. - Bantamweight Division

• Our pick: Raul Rosas Jr. by Submission (+420) at FanDuel

Drew Dober vs. Michael Johnson - Lightweight Division

• Our pick: Drew Dober (-102) at FanDuel

Gregory Rodrigues vs. Bruno Ferreira - Middleweight Division

• Our pick: Gregory Rodrigues (-210) at FanDuel

Max Holloway vs. Charles Oliveira - Lightweight Division

The title for the UFC’s BMF belt is on the line on Saturday in Las Vegas as Oliveira aims to exact revenge 11 years on up against Holloway. Former featherweight champion Holloway won by TKO back in August 2015 following an unusual neck/throat injury suffered by Oliveira. The former is a -225 favorite with FanDuel for what is billed as potentially the fight of the year.

Fighting as featherweights in Saskatchewan, Canada over a decade ago, Holloway and Oliveira have since moved up to the lightweight division.

That would explain why Holloway is considered a -225 favorite for the bout, as the Hawaiian has had incredible success fighting at 155 lbs in recent years. Holloway first secured the BMF title against Justin Gaethje in 2024 in what was considered one of the greatest knockouts in history. He then successfully defended the belt last July, defeating Justin Poirier by unanimous decision.

An 11-bout unbeaten run across the UFC for Oliveira from 2018 to 2022 saw the Brazilian win and successfully defend the Lightweight Championship. However, he has had mixed success across his six fights since, with a record of 3-3. Two failed Lightweight Championship attempts against Islam Makhachev and Ilia Topuria suggest the 36-year-old is past his best.

Nonetheless, Oliveira defeated Mateusz Gamrot via submission five months ago, earning Performance of the Night. While Oliveira is considered to be the favorite if the fight goes to the ground and is a known submission artist, Holloway has backed himself in a grappling contest against “do Bronx”. That said, “Blessed” is most likely to succeed if he can stay on his feet and make the most of his strong striking ability.

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Caio Borralho vs. Reinier de Ridder - Middleweight Division

In UFC 326’s co-main event, Brazilian Borralho is the current -310 favorite with FanDuel against De Ridder. Borralho was priced at -265 earlier on this week, and with his odds to win significantly shortening, the public seems to be agreeing with FanDuel’s implied probability of 75.61%.

A strong run from Borralho that included victories over Paul Craig at UFC 301 and Jared Cannonier at UFC Vegas 96 came to a halt last September after losing by unanimous decision against Nassourdine Imavov. That was his first loss since entering the UFC in 2022.

Both fighters are coming off losses after De Ridder was heavily beaten by Brendan Allen by TKO back in October. The Dutchman struggled to deal with Allen’s ground-and-pound and threw in the towel before the beginning of Round 5. Borralho’s strong 76% takedown defense bodes well for Saturday’s bout, especially given De Ridder’s propensity to go for the submission (62% of all wins).

The odds suggest it is a matchup that greatly favors Borralho and it’s quite clear why. He has the tools to defend De Ridder’s grappling game and can rely on his better stand-up ability. The Brazilian lands 3.44 significant strikes per minute compared to De Ridder’s 2.2.

Michael Bisping has claimed that this is a fight for relevancy and for both fighters to get back in the win column. While a win for either fighter is unlikely to lead to a shot at the belt, it would assert a greater standing within the middleweight division and to be considered a title challenger once again.

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Rob Font vs. Raul Rosas Jr. - Bantamweight Division

A new star is emerging in the UFC. Twenty-one-year-old Raul Rosas Jr. is set to test himself against veteran Rob Font in the bantamweight division and could cement his strong pedigree with a victory. The Mexican has lost just one of his 12 fights thus far and will feel confident in defeating a 38-year-old Font who has lost five of his last eight bouts.

The noise surrounding the quality of Rosas Jr sees him enter the fight as a -230 favorite with FanDuel. His excellent grappling could be the difference here and he’ll be looking to take the fight to the ground as quickly as possible. Font’s striking ability – 5.36 significant strikes per minute compared to Rosas Jr’s 1.51 – will be the only way he can achieve a victory.

Rosas was humbled at UFC 287, aged just 18-years-old, after suffering his first loss of his career against Christian Rodriguez by unanimous decision. However, since then, he’s won all four of his bouts, last defeating Vince Morales in March 2025.

Coming off of a loss against David Martinez, Font is heading towards the twilight of his career but will look to use his experience and boxing skills to secure the win at UFC 326. Nevertheless, Rosas Jr’s high intensity and Font’s vulnerability to takedowns will likely make the difference.

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Drew Dober vs. Michael Johnson - Lightweight Division

In arguably the most well-balanced matchup of the night, Drew Dober and Michael Johnson do battle in the octagon in a lightweight bout. Entering this one on a three-fight win streak, Johnson is the -125 favorite with FanDuel. The 39-year-old defeated Daniel Zellhuber at UFC 318 last July by unanimous decision, while Dober snapped a three-fight losing streak after beating Kyle Prepolec by TKO in October.

We’re likely to see an exciting matchup between these two fighters on Saturday, as both are known for their finishing ability. Combined, they have had over 30 knockouts throughout their careers.

A big KO inflicted on “The Menace” could signal the end of his career as he edges closer to 40. Johnson went on a four-fight losing streak from March 2019 to February 2021 but he has managed to stabilize things in the five years since, going 5-2.

Holding the record for the most knockouts in the lightweight division (10), Dober certainly has the ability to put the pressure on Johnson in what is set to be a fiery encounter. That said, Johnson will look to carry his recent momentum into the fight and lean on his impressive technical striking to prove he still belongs in the UFC.

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Gregory Rodrigues vs. Bruno Ferreira - Middleweight Division

Rounding up our UFC 236 review, we take a look at a middleweight clash between Gregory Rodrigues and Bruno Ferreira. Having already fought against one another at UFC 283 in January 2023, the pair will square off once again in Vegas. Ferreira secured a first-round stoppage in the first bout in what was a surprise victory for “The Hulk”.

Rodrigues has gone on to win five of his six fights since then, including a TKO victory over Brad Tavares. The Brazilian is known to hunt for the knockout and earned himself a Performance of the Night award after defeating Jack Hermansson last June with a first-round KO.

That search for a brutal KO can lead to Rodrigues’ demise and something Ferreira will be hoping to capitalize on here. In the first fight, Ferreira landed a huge left hand after “Robocop” went on the offensive. Time will tell if Rodrigues has learned from his past mistakes, but FanDuel thinks he has as they have him priced at -210 to win the bout.

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How to Watch UFC 326: Max Holloway vs. Charles Oliveira 2

• Location: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, United States

• When: Saturday, March 7

• Time: 9:00 PM ET

• How: Paramount+