With Minnesota coming from behind to take care of Golden State on Wednesday and the other two first-round series wrapping yesterday, we have one game tonight: the New York Liberty vs. the Phoenix Mercury. Yes, it will be an excellent night for WNBA Player Props.
Breanna Stewart ended up playing in Game Two despite suffering a knee injury in Game One. With New York’s championship dream on the line, she will undoubtedly play tonight. But will she be any more effective than she was Wednesday night?
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This is an incredibly low number for a superstar, undoubtedly impacted by the knee injury that limited her to 20 minutes in Game Two and six points. It would be understandable if she didn’t play much or as hard as she typically does, but that’s not Stewart.
She is one of the best players in the league, a veteran playing in her ninth season and averaging 18.3 points per game. Stewart will be on the court as much as she physically can be in this game, and she will not have a bad night in an elimination game.
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With 28 points, rebounds, and assists Wednesday night, Thomas finished UNDER this TOTAL for the sixth consecutive game and third in a row vs. New York. She averaged 17.3 points, 10.5 rebounds, and 9.8 assists per game in four regular-season games vs. New York.
At home and in an elimination game, I’d expect her to turn her game up a few notches. New York will do the same with the defensive pressure in an effort to keep her in check. She’ll play a great game but still finish UNDER this TOTAL.
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Ionescu averaged 18.2 points per game during the season, but she has not been much of a scoring threat since opening August with 23 and 36 point nights vs. Connecticut. Since Aug. 5 (the first game after the two vs. the Sun), she has averaged 12.8 points per game.
She has gone OVER this TOTAL once since Aug. 5 and scored 16 and 9 points in Games 1 & 2.
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Copper’s per-game average dropped from 21.1 points per game last season to 15.5 this year. She had a stretch toward the end of the regular season where she scored OVER this TOTAL, but she has gone UNDER in her last four games and in 18 of 30 during the season.
Copper has gone UNDER this TOTAL in four of five games vs. New York.
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Jones has averaged 13.5 points per game this season, but she finished UNDER it in more games than OVER it (17 of 33). She was UNDER it in her last seven games and in four of five this season against Phoenix. New York needs that to change, but don’t count on it.
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Sabally went OVER this TOTAL in 23 of 41 games this season, but most of the OVERs came in the first half of the season (15 of her first 18 games went OVER). She has gone UNDER it in nine of her last 15, but OVER in three of her last four and in three of six vs. New York.
Phoenix won three of four games vs. New York in the regular season, so I’m expecting the Mercury to turn it up tonight, more so than the Liberty, with Sabally and Thomas leading the way.
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