In Thursday's Red Sox vs. Rangers game, Bryan Bello and Jack Leiter will take the mound for their respective teams. I’m targeting the under in my three-leg MLB parlay.
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Let’s dive into our three-leg parlay, featuring the Cardinals, Yankees, and Royals at +516.
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The Rangers are 26-11 to the under. Boston's bullpen can make any offense look effective, but the Rangers haven't easily scored.
Boston has been horrendous scoring in late innings, and this is the time when the under sweats really begin. Combine these trends with a daytime start and I'm drawn to the under of 9.5 runs.
Brayan Bello will pitch for Boston, and he is giving up one home run per start, but he has been great right out of the gate following his rehab stint.
He is 2-0 with a 2.55 ERA and a 1.19 ERA. Boston will face Jack Leiter, who has a walk issue like Bello, but when he is dialed in, he can be very effective.
Texas is 28th in baseball in runs scored, and I believe Bello will shove. Boston isn't trustworthy enough in late innings to come close to this total as the primary scorers.
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The Rockies are historically bad. We picked on the White Sox last year, and the Rockies said, “Hold my beer” and watch this performance.
AJ Hinch has done an excellent job transforming the Tigers into a championship-caliber team. My favorite part about the Tigers is that they win the games they're supposed to win, and Thursday should be a dominant performance.
Casey Mize has been tremendous this season. He's 5-1 with a 2.7 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP.
It will be tough to pitch in Colorado, but he is better positioned than Kyle Freeland. He has an 8.53 ERA at home and a 4.18 ERA on the road.
Offensively, Colorado is 30th in runs scored and Detroit is 7th. The Tigers are better in every phase of the game for a great price.
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Yoshinobu Yamaoto has been the best pitcher in baseball this season. He has a 0.9 ERA and a 0.93 WHIP in 40 innings on the mound.
He keeps the ball in the yard, allowing just two homers, striking out 49 in 2025. He has every quality of a starting pitcher you would want to bet on in the first five innings.
Brandon Pfaadt hasn't been bad, and he's a respectable pitcher, but the Dodgers' offense should get to him for at least a few runs in the first five.
He has a 3.79 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP this season. If Yamamoto gives up two or fewer through five innings, I feel excellent about this leg of the parlay.
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