Best NRFI Bets Today: Continue to Fade the Houston Astros Underwhelming Offense

With the Houston Astros offense as vulnerable as ever, the Cincinnati Reds Nick Martinez is in a favorable position to thrive as he faces off against a lineup who struggles with making contact and getting on base at a consistent rate. Later in the night, we fade the Toronto Blue Jays and Seattle Mariners as both offenses are set to face off against a pair of productive arms with Kevin Gausman and Luis Castillo set to take the mound.

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Cincinnati Reds vs. Houston Astros - Nick Martinez vs. Hunter Brown (8:10 PM, EST)

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After losing NL MVP contender Kyle Tucker to the Chicago Cubs, the Houston Astros offense have struggled to play at a competitive level as their lineup currently ranks below league average in Team Total Hits, RBIs, Total Runs Scored, and in On Base Percentage. The top of their order has been very underwhelming as Isaac Paredes averages less than one Hit per game while Jeremy Pena and Jose Altuve possess an OPS lower than 0.800.

The Houston Astros struggles on offense are poised to persist on Friday night as they face off against the Cincinnati Reds Nick Martinez who has excelled at avoiding contact this season. In his seven starts, the Reds pitcher is averaging less than one Hit Against per Inning Pitched and a FIP of 3.63. Martinez also receives a high level of support from his back end as the Reds defense currently leads the league in Defensive Efficiency.

Like Martinez, Hunter Brown has also been able to put together a dominant start to the season as the Astros pitcher currently averages an ERA of 1.67, a WHIP of 0.884, a FIP of 1.81, and more than one Strikeout per Inning Pitched. Brown is also surrounded by a productive back end as the Astros defense ranks fourth overall in Defensive Efficiency. This helps limit the amount of contact variance in his starts, increasing Brown’s chances of keeping a clean sheet.

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Toronto Blue Jays vs. Seattle Mariners - Kevin Gausman vs. Luis Castillo (9:40 PM, EST)

Under 0.5 Run (-135) at BetMGM Sportsbook

After battling through a shoulder injury and struggling to keep opposing runners off the bases in his 2024 regular season campaign, Kevin Gausman has seemingly rounded back into form as the Toronto Blue Jays pitcher is averaging a WHIP of 0.925 and a FIP of 3.44. His ability to avoid contact at a high rate has played a major role in his hot start to the year as Gausman is currently averaging less than four Hits Against per game 

Every bit of his individual production will be needed against Seattle as he faces off against a Mariners offense who ranks in the top half of the board in Team Total Hits, RBIs, Total Runs Scored, and in On Base Percentage. Fortunately for Gausman, the Mariners top of their order has struggled with making contact and opening up the scoring early in their contests as Julio Rodriguez and J.P. Crawford average less than one Hit per game.

While Gausman faces off against a productive offense, Luis Castillo draws a much easier assignment as he battles it out against a Blue Jays lineup who ranks below league average in the same previously mentioned metrics. Even with minimal support from his back end, the Blue Jays struggles on offense will continue to be a thorn in their side as Castillo gives the Mariners a high level of individual production as his ERA of 3.29 and FIP of 3.87 indicates.

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Best YRFI Bets Today

• Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks - Roki Sasaki vs. Eduardo Rodriguez - Expect the reigning World Series champions to open up the scoring in the first inning of their contest against Arizona as the Los Angeles Dodgers face off against Eduardo Rodriguez who currently averages an ERA of 5.92, a WHIP of 1.474, and over one Hit Against per Inning Pitched. 

• Texas Rangers vs. Detroit Tigers - Patrick Corbin vs. Tarik Skubal - Negative regression looms large over Patrick Corbin as he faces off against a Detroit Tigers offense who ranks above league average in Contact Rate and in On Base Percentage while the Texas Rangers pitcher averages over one runner on base and more than one Hit Against per Inning Pitched.

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