NBA Player Props and Best Bets: Kevin Durant, Nikola Jokic & More Picks for Monday, March 2

A new week has arrived, and I’ve picked my favorite NBA player props for the Monday slate of games.

Neemias Queta had a career day in a win against the Philadelphia 76ers, leading the Boston Celtics with 27 points, 17 rebounds, and three blocks. The New York Knicks also won a rematch of the NBA Cup Final against the San Antonio Spurs, using a balanced team effort to overcome Victor Wembanyama’s 25 points, 13 rebounds, and four blocks. 

There are only four games today. The headliner is a battle on the West Coast, in which the Golden State Warriors will host the Los Angeles Clippers.

Here are my best NBA player prop picks and bets for Monday, March 2.

Best NBA Prop Bets for Monday, March 2

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Kevin Durant Under 2.5 Threes (-130) at FanDuel Sportsbook

Durant has only made four three-pointers out of his last 18 attempts, and he went under in three straight games. He also made 2.4 threes per game and went under this line in his only previous matchup with the Washington Wizards, going 2/5 from beyond the arc.

I’m not worried about Durant being able to find efficient looks against a Wizards team that ranked 24th in made threes allowed per game over the last few weeks, but history tells us that he isn’t a high-volume perimeter shooter. The Wizards also have length with Kyshawn George, Will Riley, and Bilal Coulibaly, which gives them their best chance of making it difficult for Durant.

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Cam Thomas Over 11.5 Points (-102) at FanDuel Sportsbook

Thomas has always been an extremely capable scorer, and some of his per-36 numbers have been off the charts. He scored 15 points in just 18 minutes in his last game, and he went over this line in five of eight games since he was traded to the Milwaukee Bucks.

The Boston Celtics have a great defense and allowed the fewest points per game in the entire league. Thomas’ ability as a scorer makes me believe that he will end up with looks late in the shot clock, and I think the volume of opportunities will power him to an over.

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Nikola Jokic Under 1.5 Threes (+148) at FanDuel Sportsbook

The Utah Jazz are terrible at defending the three-point line, but that really shouldn't matter when it comes to Jokic, since he almost always has the ball in his hands and never gets his looks by running off of screens or floating around the perimeter. What matters more are his personal habits and his overall efficiency…

Jokic went 1/4 from downtown in his last game after going over in four straight games. Despite that, he only made 1.7 threes per game in February, and he shot 31.1 percent from deep during that stretch. He takes fewer than five threes per game, and he’s too good not to try to take advantage of the Jazz’s weak interior defense.

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Benedict Mathurin Under 18.5 Points (-125) at FanDuel Sportsbook

Mathurin made an immediate impact on the Los Angeles Clippers, averaging 19.0 points per game since he was traded by the Indiana Pacers. He split the over/under at three games apiece, but two of his overs came in games in which he attempted 13 and 14 free throws.

The Golden State Warriors do a solid job of defending without fouling, ranking 10th in free-throw attempts allowed over the last 10 games. Mathurin went under in back-to-back outings and only shot 39.4 percent from the floor and 18.5 percent from three in his new threads, and I can’t bet the over until I see a jump in efficiency.

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Brandin Podziemski Under 6.5 Rebounds (-144) at FanDuel Sportsbook

Podziemski has taken advantage of his recent opportunities, going over this line in five straight games and posting back-to-back 15-rebound performances during that stretch. However, he went over in both of his previous meetings with the Clippers, who ranked fifth in rebounds allowed per game since they traded Ivica Zubac.

Podziemski isn’t playing well overall, and Steve Kerr could shorten his leash if that continues. The Clippers have a bunch of size and length on the interior and on the wings, and this doesn’t shape up as a great opportunity for the Warriors’ third-year guard.

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