NBA MVP Winner Odds, Picks, Predictions 2026: Expect a Tight Race Until the Very End

• Oklahoma City’s Shai Gilgeous-Alexander won the NBA MVP award in 2024-2025

• Nikola Jokic led the league in BPM and in Player Efficiency Rating last season

• LeBron James is expected to miss the first month of play while dealing with an injury

NBA MVP Odds

Odds courtesy of Fanduel Sportsbook. Join FanDuel today and claim your welcome bonus: Bet $5, Get $300 in Bonus Bets if Your Bet Wins.

Rest of the candidates listed at +3500 odds and higher.

2026 NBA MVP - My Pick

Luka Doncic (+600) at FanDuel Sportsbook

With LeBron James expected to miss up to 3-4 weeks while dealing with an injury, Luka Doncic will have a great opportunity to get off to a hot start by shouldering a heavier workload. Even with opposing defenses shading their bodies towards him, Doncic has shown he can pick apart any coverage with his versatility as he averaged nearly 10 assists per game last season.

As for the rest of the contenders, Nikola Jokic is expected to see a decrease in his usage rate after averaging the most minutes per game in his career last season while Giannis Antetokounmpo may regress after the Milwaukee Bucks went through an underwhelming offseason. As for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, the reigning MVP will suffer from voter fatigue should he fail to improve on last year’s metrics.

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How to Bet on the NBA MVP Winner

When betting on a player to win the MVP award, it’s important to factor in their usage rate and how efficient they are when they play. The more a player is capable of stuffing the stat sheet on a nightly basis, the more attention they draw towards themselves to help separate from the rest of the field. Efficiency and BPM are two important stats to consider as it shows how much of an impact they make for their team’s overall success.

Speaking of a team’s overall success, target a player who plays for a championship contender as their impact on the court resonates more to the media as the regular season rolls on. A player's availability is also important to consider as their chances of winning the award will plummet should they have to sit out for a prolonged period of time.

How to Read NBA MVP Winner Odds

Before placing any type of wager, it’s vital to know how the listed odds work. If you bet on Luka Doncic to win the MVP at his preseason odds of +400, then a $100 wager would profit you $400 should he win the award.

If you wait to see if Doncic gets off to a hot start and is listed as the betting favorite to win the award during the regular season (ex: -115), then you would need to wager $115 to profit $100. Make sure you line shop before placing a wager as the odds for the same market can wildly vary between each sportsbook.

Where to Bet on the NBA MVP Winner

FanDuel Sportsbook is one of the best apps to use for the MVP winner market as they offer a wide range of props for their users to wager on and typically edge out the rest of the apps with their listed odds. If you do not already have an account, new users can claim: Bet $5, Get $300 in Bonus Bets if Your Bet Wins.

BetMGM Sportsbook is another great app to use as they have a friendly reward system for their users to use throughout the regular season to help boost their bankroll. If you are new to BetMGM, you can also get: Get Up to $1,500 in Bonus Bets* after creating an account with the WSN promo code WSNSPORTS.

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NBA MVP Winner History

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander put together one of the most dominant performances the league has seen in quite some time as the Oklahoma City guard won the MVP award and the NBA Championship in the same season. A feat that has not been done since Steph Curry pulled it off in 2015 when the Golden State Warriors took down the Cleveland Cavaliers.

Shai will have his work cut out for him if he wants to dethrone Kareem Abdul-Jabbar for the most MVP awards as the hall of famer currently leads the league with six titles. Bill Russell and Michael Jordan are in second place with five awards a piece while Wilt Chamberlain and LeBron James are tied for third with four.