NBA MVP Winner Odds, Picks, Predictions 2026: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Leads

The NBA Most Valuable Player (MVP) award is the league's most prestigious individual honor, presented annually to the top-performing player of the regular season. Since 2023, the winner has been awarded the Michael Jordan Trophy, named after the five-time MVP.

To win, a player must not only produce elite individual statistics - typically ranking among the league leaders in scoring, efficiency, and impact - but also lead their team to significant regular-season success, as voters traditionally favor stars on top-seeded teams.

Let's check the latest candidates and the odds.

NBA MVP Odds

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook. Use our link to join FanDuel today and claim your welcome bonus: Bet $5, Get $200 in Bonus Bets if Your Bet Wins.

Rest of the candidates listed at +25000 odds and higher.

2026 NBA MVP - My Pick

Luka Doncic (+1000) at FanDuel Sportsbook

Luka Doncic is a premier MVP candidate due to his historic individual production and a strong "narrative" advantage. Now in his first full season with the Lakers, he is leading the league in scoring at 33.4 points per game while nearly averaging a triple-double. Beyond the box score, voter fatigue toward past winners like Nikola Jokic often favors a first-time recipient.

With the Lakers maintaining a top seed in the West, Doncic provides the rare combination of high-usage efficiency and team success. If he remains healthy and exceeds the 65-game threshold, his statistical dominance makes him a high-value bet.

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How to Bet on the NBA MVP Winner

When betting on a player to win the MVP award, it’s important to factor in their usage rate and how efficient they are when they play. The more a player is capable of stuffing the stat sheet on a nightly basis, the more attention they draw towards themselves to help separate from the rest of the field. Efficiency and BPM are two important stats to consider as it shows how much of an impact they make for their team’s overall success.

Speaking of a team’s overall success, target a player who plays for a championship contender as their impact on the court resonates more to the media as the regular season rolls on. A player's availability is also important to consider as their chances of winning the award will plummet should they have to sit out for a prolonged period of time.

How to Read NBA MVP Winner Odds

Before placing any type of wager, it’s vital to know how the listed odds work. If you bet on Luka Doncic to win the MVP at his preseason odds of +400, then a $100 wager would profit you $400 should he win the award.

If you wait to see if Doncic gets off to a hot start and is listed as the betting favorite to win the award during the regular season (ex: -115), then you would need to wager $115 to profit $100. Make sure you line shop before placing a wager as the odds for the same market can wildly vary between each sportsbook.

Where to Bet on the NBA MVP Winner

FanDuel Sportsbook is one of the best apps to use for the MVP winner market as they offer a wide range of props for their users to wager on and typically edge out the rest of the apps with their listed odds. If you do not already have an account, new users can claim: Bet $5, Get $200 in Bonus Bets if Your Bet Wins.

BetMGM Sportsbook is another great app to use as they have a friendly reward system for their users to use throughout the regular season to help boost their bankroll. If you are new to BetMGM, you can also get: Get Up to $1,500 in Bonus Bets* after creating an account with the WSN promo code WSNSPORTS.

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NBA MVP Winner History

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander put together one of the most dominant performances the league has seen in quite some time as the Oklahoma City guard won the MVP award and the NBA Championship in the same season. A feat that has not been done since Steph Curry pulled it off in 2015 when the Golden State Warriors took down the Cleveland Cavaliers.

Shai will have his work cut out for him if he wants to dethrone Kareem Abdul-Jabbar for the most MVP awards as the hall of famer currently leads the league with six titles. Bill Russell and Michael Jordan are in second place with five awards a piece while Wilt Chamberlain and LeBron James are tied for third with four.