NBA MVP Winner Odds, Picks, Predictions 2026: SGA at the Top, Followed by Jokic

• Despite his team's elimination in the NBA Cup semifinals, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (Thunder) retains his status as the odds-on favorite.

• Nikola Jokic (Nuggets) remains the primary challenger as the only player statistically keeping pace with SGA.

• Victor Wembanyama (Spurs) has seen his odds shorten dramatically after leading the Spurs to the NBA Cup Final and upsetting the Thunder.

NBA MVP Odds

Odds courtesy of Fanduel Sportsbook. Use our link to join FanDuel today and claim your welcome bonus: Bet $5, Get $150 in Bonus Bets if Your Bet Wins.

Rest of the candidates listed at +30000 odds and higher.

2026 NBA MVP - My Pick

Nikola Jokic (+200) at FanDuel Sportsbook

Nikola Jokic remains the league's most efficient and consistent offensive engine, currently serving as the primary challenger to Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. Jokic’s candidacy is built on his standard historic production, averaging a near triple-double (approx. 26 points, 12 rebounds, and 9 assists), which powers a Denver Nuggets team that holds a strong 17-6 record, good for second in the Western Conference.

While the Thunder have the superior record, advanced metrics (such as PER and Win Shares) consistently favor Jokić as the most impactful individual player on a per-possession basis. If voters decide to prioritize individual offensive responsibility over pure team win-loss record, or if the Thunder cool off, Jokić’s unparalleled efficiency and mastery of the game make him the most logical alternative to claim the award.

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How to Bet on the NBA MVP Winner

When betting on a player to win the MVP award, it’s important to factor in their usage rate and how efficient they are when they play. The more a player is capable of stuffing the stat sheet on a nightly basis, the more attention they draw towards themselves to help separate from the rest of the field. Efficiency and BPM are two important stats to consider as it shows how much of an impact they make for their team’s overall success.

Speaking of a team’s overall success, target a player who plays for a championship contender as their impact on the court resonates more to the media as the regular season rolls on. A player's availability is also important to consider as their chances of winning the award will plummet should they have to sit out for a prolonged period of time.

How to Read NBA MVP Winner Odds

Before placing any type of wager, it’s vital to know how the listed odds work. If you bet on Luka Doncic to win the MVP at his preseason odds of +400, then a $100 wager would profit you $400 should he win the award.

If you wait to see if Doncic gets off to a hot start and is listed as the betting favorite to win the award during the regular season (ex: -115), then you would need to wager $115 to profit $100. Make sure you line shop before placing a wager as the odds for the same market can wildly vary between each sportsbook.

Where to Bet on the NBA MVP Winner

FanDuel Sportsbook is one of the best apps to use for the MVP winner market as they offer a wide range of props for their users to wager on and typically edge out the rest of the apps with their listed odds. If you do not already have an account, new users can claim: Bet $5, Get $150 in Bonus Bets if Your Bet Wins.

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NBA MVP Winner History

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander put together one of the most dominant performances the league has seen in quite some time as the Oklahoma City guard won the MVP award and the NBA Championship in the same season. A feat that has not been done since Steph Curry pulled it off in 2015 when the Golden State Warriors took down the Cleveland Cavaliers.

Shai will have his work cut out for him if he wants to dethrone Kareem Abdul-Jabbar for the most MVP awards as the hall of famer currently leads the league with six titles. Bill Russell and Michael Jordan are in second place with five awards a piece while Wilt Chamberlain and LeBron James are tied for third with four.