Timberwolves vs. Thunder Prediction and Odds: Wolves Facing Elimination

The Minnesota Timberwolves will be back on the road for Game 5 of the Western Conference Finals as they look to climb out of a 3-1 hole against the Oklahoma City Thunder.

The Timberwolves made history in Game 4, becoming the first team in NBA playoff history to have more rebounds, more assists, more free-throws made and attempted, and a higher shooting percentage from the field, three-point line, and free-throw line, and still lose. The optimist would say that means they can play with OKC, but the pessimist would say they did all of that and still couldn’t win.

The Thunder have demonstrated impressive resolve and consistency throughout the postseason and are one win away from getting to the NBA Finals. They went 2-0 at home in the series and 7-1 in the playoffs as a whole.

Here, I will break down the Timberwolves vs. Thunder odds and share my favorite pick for Game 5 on Wednesday.

If you are looking for more betting insights for this matchup, check out our daily NBA Player Props and Best Bets.

Timberwolves vs. Thunder Betting Odds for Wednesday, May 28

The Timberwolves are 48-47-1 (50.5 percent) against the spread, 25-23 (52.1 percent) ATS on the road, and 16-9-1 (64 percent) ATS as an underdog.

The Thunder are 59-35-4 (62.8 percent) ATS, 33-14-2 (70.2 percent) ATS at home, and 57-34-4 (62.6 percent) ATS as a favorite.

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Timberwolves vs. Thunder Prediction

Minnesota Timberwolves Preview

Looking at the Timberwolves’ last two games, it’d be hard to believe they found themselves on the brink of elimination. They posted a ridiculous 135.9 offensive rating and 67.3 true shooting percentage against the clear-cut best defense in the NBA, which held its playoff opponents to 105.7 points per 100 possessions.

However, that’s not where the story ends. The Timberwolves in their last game turned the ball over on an abysmal 23.7 percent of their offensive possessions and conceded 19 offensive rebounds, the same amount they gained, against a much smaller and less physical team that was 20th in offensive rebound rate during the regular season.

While Minnesota was hot shooting the ball in Game 4, making 18 of 41 attempts (43.9 percent), it also let OKC go 16-37 (43.2 percent).

One of the most intriguing aspects of Game 4 was how efficient Minnesota’s offense was, shooting 51.2 percent from the field, but how ineffective its star players were. Julius Randle and Anthony Edwards combined for 21 points on 30 percent shooting, 11 rebounds, 10 turnovers, and nine assists. 

Compare that to the bench rotation of Naz Reid, Donte DiVincenzo, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, and Terrence Shannon Jr., who scored 64 points on 63.6 percent shooting.

The Timberwolves’ zone defensive possessions have gone horribly in the series. Their best approach is relying on tucking in at the boxes and elbows to show help on Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s drives, but that can only be so effective if Rudy Gobert isn’t a net negative and the Thunder aren’t consistently drilling their threes.

It’s relevant that both teams have the exact same offensive and defensive rating in the series. The Wolves lead in true shooting percentage, offensive and defensive rebound rate, and assist percentage.

This is an evergreen statement, but the visitors need to take better care of the ball. It’s no coincidence that their only win in the series—against the team that scored the most points off turnovers per game—came in the game in which they only turned the ball over 10 times compared to the Thunder’s 14.

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Oklahoma City Thunder Preview

The Thunder are a -425 favorite (81 percent implied chance) to win the NBA Finals. To say that these are the highest that expectations have been in the history of the franchise would be totally in bounds.

The most remarkable piece of OKC’s playoff run is how they’ve consistently answered the bell when called, even despite being the youngest team in the league. They showed up in Game 7s, set the tone in Game 1s on short rest, answered nearly every run their opponents put together, and almost always established a lead shortly after the opening whistle.

As outstandingly efficient as Minnesota’s offense was in Game 4, the Thunder led the scoreboard nearly the entire way. How? They can slow down the pace by getting to the free-throw line, make threes, and turning defense into offense by scoring 22.5 points off turnovers (their per-game average in this series).

Even as Gilgeous-Alexander went for 40 points, 10 assists, and nine rebounds in his last game, the story centered around the play of Jalen Williams (34 points, five assists, 6-9 3PT) and Chet Holmgren (21 points, seven rebounds, three blocks). The two looked like bonafide championship-level co-stars, constantly making winning plays and showing that this Thunder team can still get better in the coming years.

All that said, Mark Daigneault cannot (nor do I expect him to) rest on his laurels.

The Timberwolves’ offense has been clicking, and OKC is a defense-first team. Even if they can score, they don’t want to give the underdogs confidence by potentially handing them a win and then going back to Minnesota.

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Timberwolves vs. Thunder Betting Pick

• Timberwolves vs. Thunder pick: Timberwolves +8.5 (-110) at BetMGM

This has the potential to be the best game of the series. Much was made of Edwards’ limited shot volume in Game 4, and although I believe he still played alright, I am expecting him to take more control of this game and go head-to-head with Gilgeous-Alexander.

The Thunder’s suffocating defense hasn’t been able to get many stops if they haven’t forced turnovers, but they have also capitalized on Minnesota’s mistakes. I have very few questions about the Thunder, nor do I believe that they will really determine how Game 5 goes…Instead, I believe the Wolves’ commitment to ball security and defensive rebounding will determine if they win or lose.

I see the Wolves as a live dog here. They didn’t cover in either road game in the series, but I’m taking them to do just that with their season on the line.

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How to Watch Timberwolves vs. Thunder on 5/28/25

• When: Wednesday, May 28 @ 7:30/8:30 p.m. CT/ET

• Where: Paycom Center, Oklahoma City, OK

• TV: ESPN