Miami vs. Indiana National Championship Prediction, Odds & Picks: Cignetti Chases History as Canes Eye One Last Upset

• Miami hasn’t won a national title since 2001, and Indiana never won one

• Fernando Mendoza has eight touchdowns and no turnovers in the CFP

• Both teams are 10-5 against the spread and undefeated ATS in the CFP

The Indiana Hoosiers and Miami Hurricanes will play the final game of the college football season, the CFP National Championship Game, on Monday evening.

The Hoosiers are one win away from cementing the greatest turnaround in modern sports history, going from a rudderless institution to the undefeated national champions. They beat Alabama and Oregon in the CFP by a combined score of 94-25 and are huge favorites on Monday despite opening the season at +10000 to win the whole shebang.

Miami similarly has consistently overcome the odds, twice winning as an underdog in the CFP to reach the championship stage. They have an enormously talented roster and get to play in their home stadium for one final time as they aim to win their first national championship since 2001.

Here, I will break down the CFP championship game odds and share my best Miami vs. Indiana betting pick.

Miami vs. Indiana Odds

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Miami vs. Indiana: My Pick

• My pick: Indiana -7.5 (-110) at BetMGM Sportsbook

Miami needs to get a hot start on defense and to establish itself with a long opening drive so that Indiana doesn’t run away from them. They are physical and capable of dominating the point of attack, but Indiana looks excellent everywhere on the field. I don’t trust Miami to go blow-for-blow with the IU offense, and Beck is the quarterback who is much more likely to turn the ball over.

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Miami vs. Indiana Prediction

Miami Hurricanes Preview

Miami’s biggest asset is its brutal physicality at the point of attack. They pushed around Texas A&M, Ohio State, and Ole Miss in the trenches, ensuring they began the majority of plays with the advantage. Combine that with their talent and level of execution, and that’s how a tenth-seeded team that many believed wouldn’t be selected for the bracket ends up in the final game.

As dominant as the Hurricanes were in the semifinal, they still needed a game-winning drive to take down Ole Miss, 31-27. That’s because they made a plethora of mistakes and had numerous self-inflicted wounds, including an interception, a missed field goal, and 10 penalties for 74 yards. Replicating those shortcomings would practically guarantee a loss to Indiana.

Miami’s best player is widely considered to be EDGE Rueben Bain Jr., a possible top-three pick in the upcoming NFL Draft. He had four sacks in the first two games of the CFP but only managed one tackle in the semifinal and was nullified by Ole Miss’ tempo on offense. Indiana could use this same approach if he starts to take over the game.

Georgia transfer and QB Carson Beck answered his critics with his game-winning drive against Ole Miss. He hadn’t been asked to do much before that and only averaged 169.7 passing yards to go with five total touchdowns and an interception in the CFP.

The Canes’ best chance in this game involves playing from in front of or evenly with Indiana. They are a team based on turnover differential, clock control, and physicality, and they’ll have to break from those principles if they are chasing points.

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Indiana Hoosiers Preview

Indiana is built on relentless, yet methodical execution. They don’t run away from teams with one-play drives, but they rarely ever falter or relinquish. Teams have to be buttoned up whenever they play them, or else they don’t have a chance.

Heisman winner Fernando Mendoza was fairly average during matchups with top teams during the regular season and the Big Ten Championship Game. He’s been anything but in the CFP, only averaging 184.5 passing yards per game, but throwing eight touchdowns and no interceptions. 

Indiana’s defensive front is relatively small, especially compared to Miami's offensive line. That didn’t stop them from ranking 16th in sack percentage and forcing and recovering fumbles from both Ty Simpson and Dante Moore. 

To add to that, the Hoosiers ranked 11th in yards allowed per play at 4.6 (Miami was 10th at 4.5). They ranked first in offensive and fourth in defensive EPA per play, beating out Miami, which was 14th and seventh in each category, respectively.

The biggest mismatch in this encounter is arguably on the clipboard. Miami’s Mario Cristobal has done a great job but is known to have a mistake in him, while IU’s Curt Cignetti has the Midas touch.

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Miami vs. Indiana Injury Report

Miami 

• Tony Johnson (WR) - Questionable

• OJ Frederqiue Jr. (DB) - Questionable

• Elija Lofton (TE) - Questionable (lower body)

• Daylyn Upshaw (WR) - OUT (foot)

• Dylan Reiman (TE) - OUT 

• Jackson Carver (TE) - OUT

• Chance Robinson (WR) - OUT

Indiana

• Brendan Franke (K) - Questionable

• Amari Kamara (LB) - Questionable (shoulder)

• Lee Beebe Jr. (RB) - OUT (leg)

Miami vs. Indiana: Best Promos and Sportsbooks

All of the best online sportsbooks are offering a variety of betting markets for the Alabama vs. Indiana College Football Playoff showdown.

While the odds might be similar, each sportsbook will have its differences. Compare odds across multiple sportsbooks to find the best place to submit your bet of choice.

Find some of the best sportsbook promos and bonuses listed in the table below.

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How to Watch Miami vs. Indiana

• When: Monday, Jan. 19 @ 7:30 p.m. ET

• Where: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL

• How to Watch: ESPN