Los Angeles Rams wide receiver Puka Nacua is tied for third in carries by a wide receiver, including the Wild Card round.
Chicago Bears wide receiver Luther Burden III leads the Bears in receiving yards versus Cover-3.
The Rams had a 55/45 running back timeshare in the Wild Card round with Kyren Williams and Blake Corum, respectively.
In one of the two NFC Divisional Round games, the Chicago Bears host the Los Angeles Rams.
If you like offense, strap in: the Rams and Bears both rank inside the top eight in our NFL Offense Rankings.
The Rams head into this game at +320 while the Bears are +1200 in our latest Super Bowl odds, as the Rams are favored to win.
With that, there’s a lot of value in the prop bet department. Let’s dive in.
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| Best Bears vs Rams Prop Bets | Odds | Claim Up to $1,500 in Bonuses at BetMGM |
|---|---|---|
| Puka Nacua Under 1.5 Rush Attempts | -235 | CLAIM HERE |
| Luther Burden III Over 3.5 Receptions | +150 | CLAIM HERE |
| Kyren Williams Under 60.5 Rushing Yards | -120 | CLAIM HERE |
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This is a unique prop bet, but I always enjoy exploring these.
Nacua is used as a runner at times, including five times in the last two games, including a rushing touchdown.
However, if you look at his “rushing touchdown,” this was a pass that was just thrown behind the quarterback, so it counted as a “rush attempt,” but wasn’t a traditional carry or a jet sweep.
He’s finished with one carry or fewer in allbut four games (including the Wild Card round) this season.
Look for both offenses to succeed in the pass game, reducing the need for Nacua to carry the ball.
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Coming off the prop above, which was -235, we’re going to try to get some value back with Burden at +150 to catch four passes or more.
In the Wild Card round win over the Packers, he caught three passes for 42 yards. However, he also had seven targets.
Since Week 10, he’s caught four passes or more in four of eight games.
Of course, the elephant in the room is that a lot of that production came when fellow wide receiver Rome Odunze wasn’t on the field.
This season, Burden’s target share is just 11.3%, but again, since Week 10, it has been 16.2%, which is second on the team.
Let’s break it down further, though: Since Week 10 without Odunze on the field, his target share is 22.7%.
So, he’s proven to be a reliable weapon when Odunze isn’t on the field, but since he is, why should we take the over?
Well, he’s perhaps their best option against Cover-3, the coverage the Rams play most often. He’s caught 21 passes for 339 yards against it, and those yards lead the team.
At +150, given what I think could very well be a game where both teams score in the high-20’s or 30’s, I’m up for it.
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Heading into this game, Williams has rushed for 60 yards or fewer in his last two games. Of course, he’s been close to going over this line with 57 yards in the Wild Card round and 60 in Week 18.
However, the Rams are starting to use Williams and Blake Corum in a 50/50 time share.
In the Wild Card round, Williams handled 54.2% of the running back carries while Corum had 45.8%.
Williams averaged 4.4 yards per carry, and Corum was at 4.1. Both players had similar runs of five yards or more, and neither went for 10 or more. That said, 9.1% of Corum’s runs were either zero or negative yards, but he also had better yards after contact per rush.
I say all that because I wonder if Corum could be used more here, as he profiles a bit better as a “gritty” runner, especially in the Chicago cold.
So, considering the running back carries splits and Corum perhaps being a better option for this type of game, I’ll lean under at this line.
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