Drake Maye is set for his playoff debut just two weeks after throwing five touchdown passes against the Jets.
The Chargers allowed the third-fewest passing touchdowns in the NFL during the regular season.
The Los Angeles defense tallied 19 interceptions during the regular season, third most in the NFL.
There’s no question that Drake Maye will be one of the top players to watch during the Wild Card Round of the NFL playoffs. He’s had an outstanding season and will be making his playoff debut after leading the Patriots to a 14-3 record. Of course, Maye and the Patriots face a tough matchup against the Los Angeles Chargers, who put together a strong 11-6 campaign and have a top-10 defense.
Much of the discussion around Maye is whether or not he’s done enough to win NFL MVP award. We won’t know the winner until the night before the Super Bowl, but it looks like a two-horse race between Maye and Matthew Stafford. Of course, Maye’s postseason performance won’t impact MVP voting. However, the second-year quarterback is poised to help the Patriots make noise in the playoffs, as New England is among the top contenders in the latest Super Bowl odds.
For now, we’ll focus solely on how Maye performs against the Chargers in the Wild Card round. We’ve dissected this matchup closely and pinpointed our three favorite prop bets involving Maye.
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Heading into the playoffs, Maye is just two weeks removed from a five-touchdown performance against the Jets. However, facing the Chargers will be a little more difficult than facing the Jets. In general, touchdowns could be at a premium, making it hard to back Maye to throw multiple touchdown passes in his playoff debut.
Even against a weak schedule down the stretch, Maye has only three games with multiple touchdown passes in his last seven games. More importantly, the Chargers allowed a total of just 16 passing touchdowns in 17 games this season, which was the third fewest in the NFL. That means New England could end up having more success on the ground, leading us to fade Maye’s touchdown passes this week.
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For what it’s worth, Maye showed decent ball security this season, throwing just eight picks. He didn’t have a multi-interception game during the regular season, although that means he threw an interception in eight of his 17 games. Maye never threw a pick in a game that New England won easily. Instead, seven of his eight interceptions came in losses or one-score wins.
The spread for this game is so tight that it’s likely to be a loss or a close New England win. That alone increases the chances of Maye throwing an interception. Plus, the Chargers tied for the third-most interceptions in the NFL this season with 19. The Los Angeles defense has had at least one interception in six of its last eight games, victimizing the likes of Aaron Rodgers, Trevor Lawrence, Jalen Hurts, and Patrick Mahomes. It’s not hard to envision the Chargers doing the same to Maye in his playoff debut.
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Maye is an MVP candidate because he was efficient this season, but not necessarily a high-volume passer. During the regular season, he had fewer than 20 completions in nine of 17 games, including three of his last four games. While his completion percentage was high, he was not among the league leaders in total completed passes.
Once again, the Los Angeles defense will be a factor in fading Maye. The Chargers allowed the fifth-lowest completion percentage and the third-fewest total completions in the NFL this season. Opposing quarterbacks averaged just 18 completions per game against them. Eight of the last 10 quarterbacks to face the Chargers have failed to reach 20 completions, making it a safe bet that Maye will continue that trend.
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Completions: 354
Attempts: 492
Yards: 4,394
Completion Percentage: 72%
Yards per Pass: 8.9
Passing Touchdowns: 31
Interceptions: 8
Carries: 103
Rushing Yards: 450
Yards Per Carry: 4.4
Rushing Touchdowns: 4
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