Lamar Jackson threw for 4 touchdowns in his first game back from injury
The Baltimore Ravens are listed as the betting favorite to win the AFC North
The Minnesota Vikings front seven ranks top-3 in Pass Rush Win Rate
In his first game back from injury, Lamar Jackson was able to quickly shake off the rust and keep Baltimore’s hopes of winning the AFC North alive as he threw for four touchdowns in their win over Miami. Unfortunately for Jackson, negative regression looms large over the two time MVP as he faces off against a Minnesota Vikings front seven who excels at collapsing the pocket while disguising their coverages.
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After a slow start to the year, the Minnesota Vikings defense have started to round back into dominant form as they head into week 10 ranked top-12 in Def DVOA and in EPA. Their ability to get to the quarterback has played a major role in their recent success as the Vikings front seven currently ranks near the top of the board in Pass Rush Win Rate.
With the Vikings consistently collapsing the pocket, Lamar Jackson will be forced to throw on the run which will drastically reduce the quality of his throws. His pass catchers will also have less time in the open field to break away from their coverage which will narrow the width of his passing lanes. To help avoid throwing into high Havoc situations, the Ravens may call the run at a heavier rate which will eat away at Jackson’s total number of pass attempts.
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With the Ravens expected to struggle to move the ball down the field, the total number of Jackson’s scoring opportunities will decline. Especially if the Ravens decide to keep the ball on the ground with Derrick Henry to help limit the amount of negative variance in their drives, further reducing the total number of Jackson’s pass attempts which lowers his chances of throwing for a touchdown.
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Speaking of keeping the ball on the ground, Jackson may see an increase in his total number of carries in an attempt to counter the Vikings pressure in the middle by bouncing him to the outside. When in the open field, Jackson is one of the most dynamic runners in the league as he ranks above league average in Yards Over Expected per Attempt while averaging 6.9 Yards per Carry.
The Ravens offensive line have also excelled at opening up high quality running lanes as their front five heads into Sunday’s contest against Minnesota ranked above league average in Run Block Win Rate and in PFF Grade. For some more exposure, escalator bet Jackson’s rushing yardage prop by placing smaller wagers on his alternate overs at the best available odds across multiple sportsbooks.
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When inside the 20, Henry may struggle to get past the trenches as the Vikings can stack the box with their linebackers while their secondary stretches out their coverage without sacrificing too much ground. To help scramble the middle of their defense and create running lanes to the end zone, expect the Ravens to use Jackson in more play action sets which will lead to an uptick in his total number of Red Zone Carries.
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Passing Yards: 1,073
Passing Touchdowns: 14
Completion Percentage: 72.9%
Total Interceptions: 1
Average Yards per Throw: 9.1
Passing Yards per Game: 214.6
Rushing Yards: 180
Rushing Touchdowns: 1
Average Yards per Carry: 6.9
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