Why Is Everyone Saying the Patriots Got a Free Ride to the Super Bowl?

The New England Patriots arrived in Super Bowl LX fair and square - but one of the biggest gripes from rival fan bases is that, unlike the Seattle Seahawks, they didn’t face a murderer’s row to get there.

The narrative floating around is that the Patriots breezed through an unimpressive regular-season schedule and were gifted advantages in all of their postseason matchups. Now that they are on a level playing field, they find themselves as 4.5-point underdogs in the most important game of the year.

Just how much truth is there to the Patriots’ scheduling advantage, and what does history say about how they will perform under the grand lights? Let’s find out the answers.

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Did the Patriots Have an Easy Schedule?

According to Team Rankings’ strength of schedule metric, the Patriots faced the 32nd-ranked schedule in the NFL (-1.8). They also recorded just one victory against a team that finished the year with a winning record. In other words, they had it easier than everyone. 

That flips on its head for the Seahawks, who ranked fourth in the same category (1.6). 

While the difference is startling, it still doesn’t tell the full story.

The Patriots beat the Los Angeles Chargers, Houston Texans, and Denver Broncos in the postseason. Those teams ranked 17th, fourth, and seventh in DVOA, which is an advanced metric that compares teams’ performances to the league average baseline based on down, distance, and field position, all adjusted for opponent strength. 

The Seahawks’ opponents, the San Francisco 49ers and Los Angeles Rams, were 10th and second. Here’s how those compare:

Those numbers aren’t all that different, although they still reflect more favorably in Seattle’s favor. However, the context is what separates them.

Tracking the Playoff Run

In the first round, the Patriots had the luxury of going against a Chargers team 31st in run-blocking win rate and 32nd in pass-blocking win rate, according to ESPN. Chargers QB Justin Herbert finished the game with only 59 yards and took six sacks behind an offensive line that included multiple backups’ backups.

Texans QB C.J. Stroud threw four first-half interceptions in the first round, allowing the Patriots to survive an unimpressive offensive display. Their defense gets all of the credit for forcing five turnovers by the end of the game, but presumptive MVP runner-up Drake Maye wasn’t remotely near his best.

The Pats then got to face the Broncos with backup quarterback Jarrett Stidham under center in his first start since Week 18 of 2023. Denver didn’t get any help from Mother Nature, who sent in a blizzard after the Pats took a 10-7 lead. No points were scored from that point on.

The Seahawks’ path was much different. They faced an injured 49ers team in the divisional round, but they annihilated them, 41-6, before putting together an excellent performance against the Rams, a consensus top-two team in the league. 

Patriots on the Right Side of Super Bowl History?

Statistically and contextually, the Patriots got as easy a ride to the Super Bowl as they could’ve - but that doesn’t matter if they win the Lombardi Trophy. They will have taken down the sixth-best team in modern NFL history, according to DVOA, on a neutral field, without any key pre-existing injuries.

Bettors are all over the Seahawks entering the weekend before the Super Bowl. That could prove to be beneficial for the Pats, however, as underdogs covered in five straight Super Bowls.

A win would make Maye the youngest quarterback ever to win a Super Bowl. Head Coach Mike Vrabel would also become the first person to win a Super Bowl as a player and coach for the same team.

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