Patriots vs. Broncos Same Game Parlay Picks: Can the Denver Defense Earn a Trip to Super Bowl LX?

• Jarrett Stidham hasn’t thrown an NFL pass since January 2024

• The Broncos have allowed opposing QBs to rush for 60+ yards in two straight games

• RJ Harvey is averaging 2.6 YPC over his last three games

The Broncos' defense has been one of the league’s best all season, but they faltered against the Bills in the Divisional Round. While the offense did enough to get the win, they lost starting quarterback Bo Nix to a broken ankle. Now, the Denver defense will be asked to be nearly perfect against the second-seeded Patriots.

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Best Same Game Parlay Picks for Patriots vs. Broncos 

We’ll share our favorite same-game parlay for this Sunday night's AFC Championship Game below, using odds from Caesars Sportsbook. Sign up for a Caesars account with promo code WSN250BM and get a Bet Match up to $250 - Win or Lose.

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Under 42.5 (-114) at Caesars Sportsbook

The injury to Bo Nix makes the Patriots an obvious bet, but we hesitate to go against a desperate team with an elite defense at home. 

Instead, we are locking in the under for this AFC Championship Game. The Broncos' offense doesn’t have the playmakers to support the backup quarterback, Jarrett Stidham. While he has made several starts for the Raiders and Broncos over his six-year career, he hasn’t attempted a pass in an NFL game since January 7, 2024.

Stidham has looked decent when behind center, but he hasn’t faced tough competition. His last two starts came against the 5-11 Chargers and 8-9 Raiders at the end of the season, when they were already eliminated from the playoffs. Nothing from those games will have prepared him to start an AFC Championship game against a great Patriots team.

Drake Maye’s playoff debut has been mixed for the Pats. He has completed 58.9% of his passes for 447 yards, four touchdowns, and two interceptions over two games. 

While the Pats scored 28 points against a great Texans defense, CJ Stroud’s four first-half interceptions are responsible for some of that. New England’s offense only managed 13 first-downs in the game, and only converted three of their 14 attempts on third.

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Drake Maye 40+ Rush Yards (+130) at Caesars Sportsbook

Denver has one of the best run defenses in football, but they have been vulnerable to mobile quarterbacks like Drake Maye.

While allowing Josh Allen to rush for over 60 yards last week was understandable, they allowed Trey Lance to rush for 69 yards on nine carries. The constant pressure means Maye won’t have much time to find receivers, but he will be able to escape the pocket. With the weather expected to be incredibly cold, we expect the quarterback to use his legs early and often.

Drake Maye only had 10 yards on the ground last week, but didn’t need to do more. However, he rushed ten times for 66 yards against a good Chargers defense in the Wild Card round.

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Jarrett Stidham 200+ Pass Yards (-103) at Caesars Sportsbook

Having to start a backup quarterback for the first time in the AFC Championship Game is rough, but it will be made even harder by the team’s struggling backfield.

Rookie RJ Harvey failed to find much consistency this season and has been especially bad over his last three games, averaging 2.6 YPC. That led Denver to turn back to Jaleel McLaughlin, who has been far better in limited action. While JK Dobbins will return, it's hard to see him making a big difference against a top-ten run defense this weekend.

Dever’s run game will fail quickly, leading Stidham to see plenty of pass attempts. That kind of volume will lead to at least 200 yards against a New England pass defense that ranks at the bottom of the league in opponent passer rating (92.8).

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