Super Bowl Champion Prediction Market: Which Teams Are Most Likely to Top the NFL in 2027?

The Super Bowl is the most-watched, most bet on, and the most discussed event in American sports. As teams prepare for the 2026-27 push to compete for a world championship, Kalshi users have set the likelihoods for teams across the league to fulfill their Super Bowl ambitions.

Setting the stage

Prediction market apps have emerged as viable competitors to sportsbooks and sports betting odds by allowing customers to set the likelihood (and price) of different outcomes. New customers are eligible for our Kalshi referral code WSN to unlock bonuses to help launch their trading experience.

While sportsbooks use a system of odds that impose a vig – which is like a tax, and ensures that “the house always wins” – prediction markets are the result of real-time customer input based on supply and demand.

While not always the case, prediction markets can offer customers more profitable means of obtaining what is effectively the same result as they would find at a sportsbook: a paid prediction of which team is going to win the Super Bowl.

We’ll explain more of the similarities and differences between legal sportsbooks and prediction markets, but before we do, let’s look at the real-time Super Bowl probabilities, courtesy of Kalshi.

Kalshi Super Bowl Predictions

We are a long way off the next Super Bowl but the best prediction markets are already trying to figure out who will be the winner of the next one.

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Top Super Bowl LXI Prediction Picks

Lots can change in a very short time in the NFL. The NFL Draft, offseason trades, and unwanted injuries are all still in play and could tip the scales before the season gets underway in the fall.

With that out of the way, here are a few teams to keep an eye on in Super Bowl trading markets:

• Seattle Seahawks (12%): The Seahawks won the Super Bowl last year convincingly, beating the Patriots 28-13 behind a stifling defensive effort. Advanced metrics suggested they were one of the best teams in NFL history, and they brought back the majority of their championship core.
  

• Los Angeles Rams (9%): The team that is second in probability to win the next Super Bowl is also the team that gave last year’s champions their greatest playoff challenge. Matthew Stafford is coming off the first MVP of his career, and the team is stuffed with talent, including the addition of cornerback Trent McDuffie.
  

• New England Patriots (5%): The runner-ups of a year ago are headed into year three of the Drake Maye era. Maye finished second in MVP voting in 2025 despite not having a blue-chip weapon, while the defense was outstanding during the run to the Super Bowl.

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Super Bowl LXI Underdogs

The term “value” only matters if the predicted outcome actually comes into fruition—otherwise, the supposed “value” is a $0 return on a trader’s investment.

Predicting Super Bowl underdogs can be risky. However, the Seahawks and Patriots were both far down the list of expected champions last year during the preseason, and they ultimately defied the odds to get to the NFL’s biggest stage.

Here are a few Super Bowl underdogs to keep an eye on:

• Los Angeles Chargers (6%): Justin Herbert really suffered when Rashawn Slater and Joe Alt were both lost to season-ending injuries. Both tackles will be back this year, alongside new center Tyler Biadasz, giving the Bolts’ star QB the protection he needs to truly become a game-changer.

• Dallas Cowboys (4%): Dallas had one of the top offenses and one of the worst defenses in the NFL last year. They retained George Pickens and Javonte Williams, and they brought in young defensive coordinator Christian Parker to remedy their issues on that side of the ball.

• Jacksonville Jaguars (4%): Liam Coen’s first year as a head coach ended with his team going 13-4 and taking the Bills to the final minute of a home playoff game. The defense was much better than expected, Trevor Lawrence played the best football of his career, and they should be able to reach even higher heights on offense if they unlock Brian Thomas Jr.

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How to Read Prediction Markets

Learning a new language can be intimidating. However, understanding how to read prediction market probabilities and prices isn’t that different from reading betting odds.

Sportsbooks indicate how much money is required to win $100 with two parts of their odds, the numeric value, and the preceding sign (+ or -). Bettors must wager $150 to win $100 at -150 odds, or they could risk $100 to win $150 at +150 odds.

Prediction markets simplify everything down to a per-dollar basis with just two options.

• A winning contract: Pays $1

• A losing contract: Pays $0

If a contract costs $0.06, that means that users have to pay $0.06 for a chance to win $1. They will win that $1 if the event that occurs corresponds to the outcome associated with their contract, and they will lose their $0.06 if it doesn’t.

Sportsbook odds can be translated to implied probabilities. For example, +100 indicates there is a 50/50 chance of an event occurring.

Prediction platforms also streamline this by listing the actual probability of the predicton market event. The main difference here is that sportsbook odds include a vig, so even implied probability doesn’t reflect the true likelihood. 

Understanding Prediction Market Prices

In sports betting, outcomes with odds values preceded by a “-” have a greater than 51% chance of winning and are usually (but not always) considered the favorite. Outcomes with a “+” cannot have more than a 50% chance of occurring. 

Prediction markets use $0.50 as the differentiation between favorites and underdogs. Anything below this amount means that the outcome has less than a 50 percent chance of occurring, meaning that the outcome is usually considered an underdog.

However, that could change in markets where there are multiple outcomes. For example, the preseason favorite to win the Super Bowl might only trade at $0.10 per contract.

Understanding prediction value through the lens of sports betting odds can be accomplished by using one of two simple formulas.

Underdogs (below $0.50): (100 / (price 100)) 100 - 100

• Example: the Seahawks are trading at $0.10

• (100 / (.10 (100)) 100 - 100 = +900

Favorites (above $0.50): -1 (Price / (1 - Price)) 100

• Example: the Chiefs are trading at $0.65

• -1 (.65 / (1 - .65)) 100 = -185.7 (~-186)

How do Super Bowl Trading Markets Work?

Purchasing a contract in a Super Bowl market doesn’t bring short-term gratification. The outcome will only settle once the Super Bowl champion is produced, or the user’s predicted outcome becomes impossible (for example, if the selected team fails to make the playoffs).

Probabilities will fluctuate throughout the regular season and playoffs based on the events around the league. Users can still buy and sell contracts in the Super Bowl market, but they can’t change the price of contracts they have already purchased.

How to Pick the Super Bowl Winner

Picking the Super Bowl winner is difficult. The most rudimentary math available would suggest that there’s only a 1-in-32 (3.1 percent) chance of picking the future winner.

Using context helps clean up that picture, although there are still unexpected twists and turns in the road that alter the final outcome. For example, last year’s Super Bowl would’ve produced the second-most improbable NFL champion in league history, regardless of who won, based on preseason sportsbook odds. The only other team with longer odds that went on to hoist the Lombardi Trophy was the 1999 St. Louis Rams.

The NFL is also chock-full of parity at the moment. The Washington Commanders, who were in the NFC Championship Game in 2024, are a perfect example of that, since there are only nine teams with lower probabilities to win the Super Bowl than they are.

That said, the six preceding Super Bowls were played by the same six teams: the Chiefs, Eagles, 49ers, Bengals, Rams, and Buccaneers.

Where to Trade Super Bowl Markets Legally 

Licensed prediction markets are regulated by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission, which ensures that the platforms are adhering to their governing rules and offering basic consumer protections. 

Several of the top prediction operators include Kalshi, crypto.com, and OG.com.

Kalshi is legal in all 50 states. However, as the largest prediction operator, it has faced the brunt of the pushback from state regulators who have argued that prediction markets should be required to obtain state-level licensing for their sports event contracts. In March, a federal judge in Ohio ruled against Kalshi and claimed that some of its markets should be classified as gambling, leading to an inevitable legal challenge that is still to be resolved.

Crypto.com is legal in 41 states. It is restricted in New York, Nevada, Ohio, Michigan, Arizona, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, and Illinois.

OG.com, which is powered by Crypto.com, is legal in every state except for Arizona and New York.

Bottom line, anyone looking to buy and sell Super Bowl contracts should mostly have access across the country.