World Cup 2026 Golden Boot Odds: Favorites, Sleepers & Best Value Bets

World Cup 2026 will be the biggest edition of the tournament to date, featuring 48 teams from all four corners of the globe.

The USA, Canada and Mexico are the three co-hosts, with the action set to get under way on June 11. The final will be held on July 19, when two teams will battle it out for the biggest prize in soccer.

As well as the fight for the trophy, it will also be worth watching the race to finish as the competition’s top scorer. Kylian Mbappe is the current favorite at a best price of +700 according to the latest World Cup Golden Boot Odds, but below we will look at all the contenders for the award.

We also break down the odds from some of the best soccer betting sites, analyze historical trends, and introduce a legal alternative for fans in restricted states.

Current World Cup Golden Boot Odds (2026)

The Favorites

Top of the list of the 2026 Golden Boot favorites is Kylian Mbappe at a top price of +700. France are expected to go far at the tournament, so there should be plenty of games in which their captain can make his mark. As far as the sportsbooks are concerned, Mbappe is the likeliest recipient of the Golden Boot.

Harry Kane is not far behind Mbappe; in fact, he is level with the Frenchman on some platforms. Kane is in fantastic form for Bayern Munich and he remains England’s main man at the top of the pitch. With Thomas Tuchel introducing a more offensive style of play, Kane looks set to shine in North America.

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The Challengers

Lionel Messi is still a key part of the Argentina team at the ripe old age of 38. The Inter Miami attacker is past his best, but he remains one of the most effective attacking players in the world. There are question marks over his ability to play a game every few days, but Messi’s quality is not in doubt.

Norway are back at the World Cup for the first time since 1998, and Erling Haaland will be licking his lips at the prospect of taking his goalscoring talents to the tournament. Norway were prolific in qualifying and the draw was reasonably kind to them, so many will like the look of Haaland as a potential challenger.

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The Value

For those seeking the best value strikers 2026, Lamine Yamal is a good option. Despite only being 18 years of age, the Barcelona and Spain forward is a global superstar. He is perhaps not as regular a goalscorer as some of the other names on this list, but Spain should go far and that works in his favor.

Cristiano Ronaldo, a player at the opposite end of his career, can never be written off, even if like Messi his powers are on the wane. Nick Woltemade of Germany, Ousmane Dembele of France, Lautaro Martinez of Argentina and Vinicius Junior of Brazil are also available at longer odds.

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The "Kalshi" Alternative: Trading on the Golden Boot 

Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated market, not a sportsbook. It is legal in many US states where sports betting is not, making it the perfect alternative for those residing in particular parts of the country.

Instead of betting on the World Cup top scorer in the traditional way with odds such as +500, you buy ‘yes’ shares. For example, tipping Kylian Mbappe to win the Golden Boot might cost 23 cents, which implies a 23 percent chance of success. If he wins, it pays out $1.

What are the advantages of Kalshi? The most obvious one is its legal status. For aspiring sports bettors living in states such as California and Texas, Kalshi is your best option. And because Kalshi is fully regulated at the federal level, it is an option for people based in states where sports betting is legal too.

There are other benefits too. Whereas traditional sportsbooks charge a vig on losing wagers, this does not exist for Kalshi, which often has tighter spreads as well. Finally, you have the option of selling your position during the tournament if the price spikes.

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Golden Boot Favorites Predictions and Analysis

Kylian Mbappe (France)

Kylian Mbappe is the reigning Golden Boot winner having picked up the trophy in 2022, when his France team lost the final to Argentina. He is the focal point of France’s attack, making the Kylian Mbappe Golden Boot odds shorter than those of any other player.

Harry Kane (England)

Harry Kane won the Golden Boot in 2018 and, if anything, he has only become a more reliable scorer since then. As well as providing a threat from open play, England’s captain is the designated penalty-taker for his country, while England have some excellent creators supplying Kane.

Erling Haaland (Norway)

Erling Haaland is a bona fide goal machine and one of the most productive centre-forwards of all time. There are doubts over exactly how far Norway will go in their first appearance since 1998, but Haaland will be a thorn in the side of every defense he comes up against.

Lamine Yamal (Spain)

Lamine Yamal does not intend to be a bit-part player at his first ever World Cup. Spain’s best player at the age of 18, the forward is a dark horse for the Golden Boot this summer. Perhaps the main question mark over Yamal is whether he is truly an out-and-out goalscorer. 

Cristiano Ronaldo (Portugal)

This will be Cristiano Ronaldo’s sixth (and surely final) World Cup and he will be desperate to win his first Golden Boot. The fact Ronaldo has not scooped the prize before is a warning sign, but Portugal are stacked with talent and Ronaldo still has a knack for being in the right place at the right time.

World Cup Golden Boot Betting Strategy: The "Magic Number" is Six

In every modern World Cup, six goals has often been enough to win the Golden Boot. The winner of the award has scored exactly six times in eight of the last 12 editions, including Harry Kane in 2018 and James Rodriguez in 2014. In both 2006 and 2010, only five goals were needed.

One approach to consider is called the ‘flat track bully’ strategy. It is advisable to bet on strikers who play weaker teams in the group stage, as one hat-trick early on would propel the player in question into pole position. For example, Kane scored five of his six goals in 2018 in England’s first two group games.

Golden Boot Award vs. Top Goalscorer Bet: Know the Difference

One thing to bear in mind is the ‘dead heat’ trap. If there is a tie between two players, the Golden Boot is decided by two tiebreakers: assists and minutes played. However, most US sportsbooks settle ‘top goalscorer’ bets by dividing your stake when two or more players are level on goals scored.

Betting on the top goalscorer is safer if you think your choice will be tied with another player but is liable to finish with fewer assists. Betting on the Golden Boot winner (if available) means you will get the full payout if your player wins on the tiebreaker, but nothing if he loses on assists or minutes played.

Whichever you choose, it is always best to check the house rules for your specific sportsbook. Some do honor the official Golden Boot winner, but most default to the ‘dead heat’ rule. Always double check before you place your bet.