Blackjack Online Strategy Guide: The Facts, the Fiction, and How to Improve Your EV

Online blackjack strategy isn’t about winning every hand you play. If it were, I’d be a millionaire, and so would anyone else who learned how to use a blackjack strategy chart.

The truth is that betting systems and strategies can only help us reduce the casino’s advantage (aka the house edge). To put it another way, you can use blackjack strategies to maximize your long-term expected value (EV).

When the right strategy coincides with a favorable run of luck, good things can happen. That’s why I recommended learning the game’s nuances. So, without stalling any longer, here are my top blackjack tips, tricks, and strategies.

The Best Online Blackjack Strategies

This online blackjack strategy guide is divided into two main parts: betting systems and game strategies. What’s the difference between the two? Betting systems dictate when you increase and decrease the size of your bets.

Blackjack game strategies tell you when it’s best to hit, stand, double down, and split based on the game’s dynamics. They don’t necessarily tell you how much to bet or when to make adjustments.  

Blackjack Betting Strategies

Now that I’ve set the scene, here are the two components of an intelligent online casino blackjack strategy:

Component 1: Betting Systems

Blackjack betting systems tell you when to increase and decrease the value of your bets based on whether you win or lose a hand. In theory, all of the systems I’m about to explain work well. In fact, if you can implement them perfectly, you’ll make a profit every time.

But, and this is important, theory and reality aren’t the same thing. Just because something works in theory, that doesn’t mean it’s going to work in a live blackjack game. It will become clear what I mean by this in a moment.

For now, just know that you’re not guaranteed to win when you use these blackjack systems. They guarantee you a profit when used correctly, but that’s not the same as guaranteeing you make a profit each time you play.

Martingale System

Martingale is the most famous blackjack betting system. The premise is simple: you double your bet each time you lose a hand. So, if you bet $10 and lose, your next bet has to be $20. 

The doubling process continues until you win a hand. At that point, you reset to your initial amount. 

Here’s a quick example of the Martingale System in action:

• You wager $10 and lose.

• You wager $20 and lose.

• You wager $40 and win.

• You wager $10 and so on…

What’s neat about this online blackjack strategy is that you always end up with a profit after a winning wager. Take the above example. We wagered $70 over the course of three hands. Because the standard payout for a win in blackjack is 1:1 (i.e., 1x), our third hand (where we wagered $40) returns $80 (our $40 stake + $40 profit).

When we subtract the sum of our bets ($70) from our return ($80), we’re left with a $10 profit. Therefore, if we follow this system correctly, it guarantees a profit. The uncertainty, however, comes from the fact that we don’t know when our next winning hand is coming.

We could lose a hand and then win the next. We could lose five hands before a win. That’s why you’re not guaranteed to win with this blackjack strategy. What’s more, there are limits to the amount you can wager.

The Problem With Martingale

The first problem with Martingale is the table limit. Let’s say you’re playing BetMGM Blackjack Pro. The maximum bet per hand in this game is $2,500. If your initial bet is $20, it will only take seven losing hands in a row to exceed that limit (you’d need to bet $2,560 on your eighth hand).

The Martingale System falters when you can’t meet the required bet size because you need to hit a winning hand to make a profit. In fact, this is the reason casinos introduced table limits. It stops players from using the Martingale System to increase their bets until they win.

You’re probably thinking that’s not fair. The truth is that table limits don’t necessarily matter because the second limit that renders Martingale impractical is your bankroll. 

How many of us can realistically wager $2,560 on a single hand of blackjack? I can’t, and I’m guessing most of you can’t or won’t. Therefore, even though Martingale is a great system in theory, it’s hard to implement.

Paroli System

You’ll be able to work out how the Paroli System works when I tell you that it’s also called Reverse Martingale. You double your bet after a winning hand and reset to your starting amount following a loss.

Blackjack betting systems that require you to increase your bet following a win are known as progressive betting systems. They’re attractive because it feels more natural to increase the amount you’re betting when you’re winning.

Unfortunately, even though the Paroli System works well in theory, it suffers from the same shortcomings with regard to table limits and affordability as the Martingale System.

D’Alembert System

The D’Alembert System is another progressive blackjack betting system. Unlike Paroli, you don’t need to double the size of your bet following a win. Instead, you increase your bet size by one unit. 

A unit is equal to the value of your first bet. So, let’s say you start with a $5 wager. The D’Alembert System works like this:

• You bet $5 and win.  

• You bet $10 and win.  

• You bet $15 and win.  

• You bet $20 and lose.  

You’re left with a profit at the end of your sequence because the sum of your previous wins outweighs the loss. In the above example, you’d win the following:

• You bet $5 and win $5 for a total return of $10.

• You bet $10 and win $10 for a total return of $20.

• You bet $15 and win $15 for a total return of $30.

Total returns up to this point = $60 ($30 stake + $30 profit).

So, after three hands, we’ve made a $30 profit. We then make a fourth bet:

• You bet $20 and lose $20.

Total profit after four hands = $10 ($60 returned - $50 wagered).

The D’Alembert System is far less aggressive than Martingale and Paroli. One of its biggest drawbacks is knowing when to stop. That’s not easy to do because we never know how the cards are going to fall. What’s more, it’s hard to slow down when you’re winning.

This brings us back to the point I made earlier about betting systems guaranteeing a profit when they’re executed correctly but not guaranteeing that we win money. That being said, I recommend the D’Alembert System over Martingale if you’re disciplined enough to stop after a three-hand winning streak.

Fibonacci System

The mathematicians among you will be aware of Fibonacci numbers. I won’t go into the nuances of these numbers because it’s above my paygrade.

What I’ll say, however, is that Fibonacci numbers are found in many parts of the world, including the arrangement of leaves on a stem, patterns in language, computing programming, and more. Basically, Fibonacci numbers are all around us.

When it comes to blackjack online strategy, Fibonacci numbers are used to create a betting sequence. This sequence is based on the Fibonacci principle that each element is the sum of its two preceding elements.

For example, the first four numbers of the sequence are 0, 1, 1, and 2. That’s because 0 + 1 = 1 + 1 = 2, and so on.

How to Use Fibonacci Numbers in Blackjack

Here are 20 numbers within a Fibonacci sequence: 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144, 233, 377, 610, 987, 1,597, 2,584, 4,181, and 6,765.

*Note: a sequence doesn’t have to stop at 20 numbers.

Once you’ve got the sequence, combine it with these steps:

• Step 1: Decide how much you want to win. This provides a stopping point because a Fibonacci sequence can continue indefinitely.

• Step 2: Decide how much you’re going to wager per hand.

• Step 3: Use the next Fibonacci number as a multiplier. For example, if the Fibonacci number is 1 and your bet amount is $10, you need to wager $10 (1 x 10).

• Step 4: Start at the first number in your Fibonacci sequence. If you win the hand, stay where you are. If you lose, move to the next number.

• Step 5: Continue moving forward each time you lose. Then, if you win, move back two numbers in the sequence.

That’s how the Fibonacci Betting System works. Like its counterparts, it works in theory but becomes increasingly expensive as the losses mount up. That’s why it’s not a viable blackjack strategy for the majority of players.

Labouchere System

The final betting system is Labouchere. Like Fibonacci, Labouchere is a sequence-based system. You create a sequence by performing these three steps:

• You set a profit target, e.g., $20.

• You divide this target by 10.

• This gives you a unit value.

In my example, the unit value is 2. Written out as a sequence, we get: 2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2.

The amount you need to wager is the sum of the two numbers at either end of your sequence. The starting bet using my sequence is $4 ($2 + $2). 

Once you get started, the two following rules apply:

• You remove the two numbers used for your bet following a win.

• You add the value of your bet to the end of your sequence following a loss.

Here’s how the Labouchere System works in practice:

• Starting sequence = 2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2

• You bet $4 and win.

• You remove 2 and 2 from your sequence.

• The new sequence is 2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2.

• You bet $4 and win.

• You remove 2 and 2 from your sequence.

• The new sequence is 2-2-2-2-2-2.

• You bet $4 and lose.

• You add 4 to your sequence.

• The new sequence is 2-2-2-2-2-2-4.

You continue playing until you’ve removed all the numbers from your sequence. At this point, you’ll be in profit. 

I’ll say it for the final time: this system is great in theory but hard to implement. Even though the stakes don’t increase as dramatically with this system as they do with Martingale, it can be hard to complete sequences when luck isn’t on your side. 

This means your total exposure, both in terms of money and time, is high. So, while you can use this online casino blackjack strategy, it’s important to remember that you need a sufficient bankroll to make it work.

Component 2: Blackjack Game Strategies

The second component of a comprehensive online blackjack strategy is knowing when to hit, stand, split, and double down. If I leave aside potentially controversial blackjack strategies such as edge sorting and shuffle tracking, we’re left with two ways you can improve your EV:

Blackjack Basic Strategy

Blackjack basic strategy is the easiest way to improve your EV because all you have to do is follow a chart. I’m not joking. Following a blackjack strategy chart (like the one shown below) really does give you a better shot at winning in the long run than playing on instinct alone. Never play guided only by your instincts. That’s one of the most basic casino beginner tips.

The underlying premise of a blackjack strategy chart is that one move has a better expected value (i.e., long-term outcome) than another.

This doesn’t mean the prescribed action is guaranteed to yield a positive result. It simply means that, over thousands of hands, the prescribed move wins more often/loses less often than another.

For example, if you look at the blackjack strategy table above, you’ll see that you should stand on a total of 17 when the dealer is showing a 2. That’s because, in the long run, the math favors standing over hitting.

Basic online blackjack strategy can be summarized as knowing what to do when the dealer is strong and weak. I’ll expand on this point in my tips and tricks section. For now, just know that you can follow the prescribed moves in a blackjack rules chart and have a better long-term EV than if you freestyle it.

Card Counting

Card counting isn’t illegal. Say it with me: card counting isn’t illegal. Despite what some casino owners might want you to believe, there’s nothing underhanded or unfair about counting cards. 

The only reason casino owners don’t like card counters is because it’s a highly effective blackjack strategy when it’s performed correctly. The problem, however, is that it’s not easy to perform correctly. 

On a basic level, card counting is easy. You assign values to cards as they’re dealt. The values you assign to cards are:

• Assign the value +1 to cards between 2 and 6.

• Assign the value 0 to cards between 7 and 9.

• Assign the value -1 to cards between 10 and Ace.

The total value you get as cards are dealt is known as your running count. To turn this into a usual number, you need to divide it by the number of decks left in the shoe. This gives you a true count, which tells you how many high-value cards are left vs. low-value cards.

When the true count is +2 or higher, it tells you there are more high-value cards left in the shoe. More high-value cards mean you’ve got a better chance of making totals that beat the dealer. That’s why card counters increase their bet size when the true count is high.

Card Counting Isn’t Easy

The downside to card counting is that it’s hard to do in real time. You need to keep track of the cards and perform calculations while focusing on the game. Throw in some outside distractions, and it’s hard to count cards accurately.

That’s a problem because any errors in your count will cause you to make incorrect bets. In fact, if you miscount in blackjack, it actually puts you at more of a disadvantage than you’d otherwise have.

On top of this, counting cards at US online casinos is almost impossible since the shoe constantly shuffles cards and you don’t know how many decks there are in it. The more decks, the harder it is to count cards.

Therefore, I only advise using this blackjack strategy if you’re good with numbers and you’ve had a lot of practice. If not, use a blackjack basic strategy chart.

Online Blackjack Tips and Tricks

I’ve covered just about everything you need to know about blackjack strategy in terms of betting systems and making +EV plays. I do want to cover a few more things before we finish.

The following online blackjack strategy tips should help you make smart decisions, regardless of the systems and techniques you use:

1. Know When the Dealer is Weak

I said earlier that a blackjack strategy chart tells you what to do when the dealer is strong and weak. The dealer is considered weak if they’re showing a 4, 5, or 6. They’re weak because the rules of blackjack state that the dealer must hit if their total is 16 or less.

If the dealer is showing a 4 or 5, they have to take a third card because the best total they can have with two cards is 15/16 (if their second card is an ace). Even with a 6, the dealer has to take a third card because 6 + Ace is known as soft 17, and most blackjack formats don’t allow the dealer to stand on this total.

Taking a card is risky because it increases the dealer’s chances of busting (going over 21). Therefore, if the dealer is weak, you should stand on all totals of 12 and higher. Similarly, you should hit or double down on any total of 11 or lower.

2. Don’t Get Distracted

Blackjack is fun, so it’s easy to get lost in the game. Try not to lose focus. I’m not saying you can’t enjoy yourself. I’m simply saying that you need to have a blackjack strategy and stick to it, regardless of how much fun you’re having.

3. Remember Your Limits

Never risk more than you can afford to lose. Your online casino blackjack strategy should be based on the amount of money you’ve set aside to gamble with. Don’t deviate from this.

If a reasonable bet (based on your bankroll) is $5, don’t go above that. Even if you’re using a betting system, don’t go over your maximum bet.

How to Win at Blackjack Every Time

The above heading is deliberately misleading because you can’t win at blackjack every time you play. I wish you could, but you can’t. Blackjack, like all casino games, is all about playing the odds.

The house has an edge in blackjack. It’s a small edge, but it’s still an edge. This means you’re at a disadvantage. However, with the right online blackjack strategy, you can reduce this disadvantage and, in some cases, gain an advantage.

Despite having ways to improve your EV, nothing is guaranteed in blackjack. The only thing you can do is play your best, stick to your betting limits, and have fun. Trust your blackjack strategy and let the cards fall as they may.

Top Blackjack Games to Play

Now that you know what the best online blackjack strategies are, here’s how to implement them. The following blackjack variants are not only fun but also have favorable conditions, including a low house edge and bonus bets with bigger-than-average payouts.

Responsible Gambling

I said that you should always stick to your limits and never risk more than you can afford to lose. These concepts apply to all forms of gambling and not just online blackjack strategy.

If you ever find that you’re breaking these rules or making poor decisions, I recommend getting help. All of the sites listed here on WSN have responsible gambling tools you can use to stay in or regain control. We also have our own dedicated WSN responsible gambling center, which tells you how to stay in control and how to recognize the early signs of a problem.

If these tools aren’t enough, seek help from experts in this area. Some of the best problem gambling organizations are:

• The National Council on Problem Gambling

• Gamblers Anonymous

• Gam-Anon.org

• GamTalk.org