Best MLB Prop Bets Today: Time to Get Behind the Yankees and Blue Jays

The early returns on our prop bets this week have been excellent, as we’re up over six units after two days. Thus, confidence is high heading into Wednesday’s picks. Even with a full schedule, we’re focusing mostly on the Yankees and Blue Jays because that’s where we found the most value. 

Best MLB Prop Bets Today: Padres vs. Yankees (7:05 PM, EST)

Aaron Judge Over 1.5 Total Bases

After Judge hit a home run on Tuesday, there is still no sign that he’s cooling off, even with a hitless game on Monday. That means we’re going to keep making him a frequent target for prop bets, especially if over 1.5 total bases is going to have odds that are close to even. Thanks to his propensity for multi-hit games and extra-base hits, Monday’s game was the only time in his last 10 games that Judge failed to get over 1.5 total bases.

In fact, he’s hit this bet in 11 of his last 13 games. The kicker is that Judge is 4 for 10 with two doubles and a home run in his career against Dylan Cease, setting him up for another productive game on Wednesday.

Paul Goldschmidt Over 1.5 Hits/Runs/RBI

Judge has been so good this season that Goldschmidt’s efforts are almost being overlooked. While his power his somewhat diminished, the 37-year-old is still batting .351. He’s also hitting in the clean-up spot, so if Judge doesn’t hit a home run, Goldschmidt often comes to the plate with runners on base. Before coming off the bench on Monday, Goldschmidt went over 1.5 hits/runs/RBI in seven of the last eight games he’s started.

Similar to Judge, with that streak and favorable odds, how do you not take this bet? In limited at-bats against Cease, Goldschmidt is 3 for 5 in his career, which isn’t a big sample size, but it’s enough to believe he can keep it going.

Dylan Cease Over 4.5 Hits Allowed

If we’re going to target Judge and Goldschmidt, we might as well fade Cease, who’s not having his best year. Granted, he allowed just two runs on three hits over four innings against the Pirates in his last start. But before that, the Rays, Astros, Cubs, and A’s all collected at least six hits against Cease in four straight outings. That makes us think that Cease’s start against the Pirates is the exception, not the rule.

The Yankees are also a lot more formidable offensively than the Pittsburgh lineup. Frankly, we would have taken over 5.5 hits allowed for Cease, so getting even odds on over 4.5 hits is a no-brainer.

Best MLB Prop Bets Today: Blue Jays vs. Angels (9:38 PM, EST)

George Springer 2+ Total Bases

The Blue Jays might be in the midst of a three-game losing streak, but Springer is 5 for 13 with three extra-base hits so far in May. His odds of getting a hit on Wednesday aren’t bad, but we’re going to be a little aggressive because he’s swinging a hot bat right now. Springer is also hitting .308 with an .808 slugging percentage against lefties this season.

On Wednesday, he’ll face lefty Yusei Kikuchi, so this is a favorable matchup for him. In fact, Springer is 7 for 16 (.438) in his career against Kikuchi, which is another good reason to be aggressive with Springer.

Jose Berrios Under 5.5 Hits Allowed

The Angels shocked the Blue Jays with eight runs on nine hits in Tuesday’s game. But that’s an aberration based on what the Halos have done this season. This is still a team that’s scored one run or less in four of its last nine games. In fairness, Berrios has had a couple of troubling outings this season. But he’s allowed five hits or fewer in four of his last six starts, even doing so against quality teams like the Yankees and Mariners. On the road, Berrios owns a 2.60 ERA and is giving up less than a hit per inning.

Meanwhile, the Angels have the fewest hits in their home ballpark this year, barely averaging seven per game. That’s more than enough to bank on Berrios in this game.

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