Best MLB Prop Bets Today: Pitching-Heavy Props to Consider for Thursday

Thursday, as usual, has a shortened MLB schedule and several day games. But we’re not going to let that stop us from picking some excellent prop bets. For the most part, we’ve targeted pitchers on Thursday, although not always in a favorable way.

Best MLB Prop Bets Today: Orioles vs. Twins (1:10 PM, EST)

Dean Kremer Over 2.5 ER

Day games are usually a good opportunity to get behind pitchers. But that’s not the case with Kremer, who owns a 5.73 ERA and is having a terrible season thus far. Granted, he’s coming off seven scoreless innings against the Royals in his last start. But he gave up at least five runs in four of his first six starts of 2025, so that performance could be an aberration. Also, in his three starts in day games, Kremer owns a 9.19 ERA, so he’s actually been worse in day games. Plus, the Twins have won four games in a row and are feeling good, so they look poised to tee-off on the inconsistent Kremer.

Best MLB Prop Bets Today: Phillies vs Rays (7:05 PM, EST)

Kyle Schwarber Over 0.5 Home Runs

We had success with a home run prop earlier this week, so we’ll try another one. Schwarber is a good target since he’s tied for the MLB lead with 12 home runs. He also has five home runs in his last eight games, so he’s very much in a groove right now. Schwarber is also 5 for 9 over the first two games of this series against the Rays, so feel free to consider him for other prop bets on Thursday. We chose the home run prop for Schwarber because Tampa starter Ryan Pepiot has given up eight home runs this season, all coming in home games. That’s eight homers allowed in 28 innings at home. If he gives up one or two more home runs on Thursday, Schwarber is an excellent candidate to do the damage.

Jesus Luzardo Over 4.5 Hits

Of course, Luzardo is rocking an impressive 1.94 ERA on the season. But he hasn’t been quite as dominant as that ERA might suggest. He’s had to work around trouble frequently, including the nine hits he gave up against the Diamondbacks in his last start. Luzardo has actually given up at least five hits in five of his seven starts this year, including four of his last five starts. While the Rays aren’t an offensive juggernaut, they’re good enough to collect some hits against Luzardo. They might get some help by facing a lefty for the second straight day, despite struggling against Cristopher Sanchez on Wednesday.

Best MLB Prop Bets Today: Blue Jays vs Angels (9:38 PM, EST)

Chris Bassitt Over 5.5 Strikeouts

Bassitt has been inconsistent with his strikeout totals this season, recording five or less in each of his last three starts. However, he’s also collected seven or more strikeouts on three occasions this year. When he pitches well, he typically strikes out a lot of batters. Bassitt will have a favorable matchup on Thursday against a lackluster Angels’ lineup. Even after winning the first two games of this series against the Blue Jays, the Angels are due for an off-night. They also have the third-most strikeouts in the majors, averaging 9.7 strikeouts per game. That should put Bassitt in an advantageous position to collect at least half a dozen strikeouts.

Best MLB Prop Bets Today: Dodgers vs Diamondbacks (9:40 PM, EST)

Yoshinobu Yamamoto Under 4.5 Hits

Just about any prop bet involving Yamamoto is on the table Thursday. He owns a 0.90 ERA after seven starts, not to mention his 0.93 WHIP. That last part is the key, as we’re banking on him allowing four hits or fewer, which has good value. Yamamoto has hit this bet in four of his seven starts, which is why there is good value if we’re getting plus-odds for it. He also allowed just one hit over six innings in his last start against the Braves. While Arizona has a quality lineup, the D’Backs have scuffled against quality pitching over the last week, which is a good sign that Yamamoto can continue his dominance.

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