Best NRFI Bets Today: Expect Paul Skenes to Round Back Into Form

With the New York Mets top of their order struggling to make contact at a consistent rate, Paul Skenes has the opportunity to round back into form after underwhelming in his last two outings. Later in the night, we continue to fade the Houston Astros offense as their lineup heads into Monday night’s contest against Kansas City ranked below league average in Contact Rate and in On Base Percentage.

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Pittsburgh Pirates vs. New York Mets - Paul Skenes vs. David Peterson (7:10 PM, EST)

Under 0.5 Run (-140) at BetMGM Sportsbook

After setting the league on fire last year, the reigning NL Rookie of the Year award winner Paul Skenes has failed to carry over his momentum into this season as the Pittsburgh Pirates ace ERA continues to trend in the wrong direction. Just when it looked like Skenes was starting to get back on track, he conceded a combined five Earned Runs in his last two outings which brought his ERA up to 2.77. A stunning turnaround after finishing last season with a 1.96.

While a matchup against the New York Mets seems daunting on paper, Skenes will have the opportunity to get off to a hot start and build on his momentum as Juan Soto has struggled with making contact at a consistent rate. Since joining the Mets, the NL MVP contender is averaging less than one Hit per game. Without his individual production, the Mets' top of their order are prone to slow starts which increases Skenes chances of keeping a clean sheet.

As for David Peterson, the Mets pitcher draws a much easier assignment as he faces off against a Pirates offense who ranks below league average in Total Runs Scored and in On Base Percentage. While his WHIP of 1.357 is high, Peterson has excelled at keeping opposing runners out of scoring position as his ERA of 3.05 and FIP of 3.43 indicates. Peterson also receives a high level of support from his back end as the Mets rank 12th in Fielding Percentage.

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Kansas City Royals vs. Houston Astros - Michael Wacha vs. Ryan Gusto (8:10 PM, EST)

Under 0.5 Run (-108) at FanDuel Sportsbook

The Houston Astros offense have been one of the more disappointing units in the league this season as their star studded lineup currently ranks below league average in Team Total Hits, RBIs, Total Runs Scored, and in On Base Percentage. Without Kyle Tucker’s elite individual production in the top of their order, the Astros have struggled to string together their Hits to help get into scoring position and score at a consistent rate.

Against the Kansas City Royals, the Astros' struggles on offense are poised to persist as they face off against Michael Wacha who averages an ERA of 2.98, a WHIP of 1.147, an FIP of 3.12, and less than one Hit Against per Inning Pitched. Especially with his back end excelling in coverage as the Royals' defense ranks eighth overall in Defensive Efficiency and first in Fielding Percentage.

On the other side of the field, the Royals' offense have started to get into a groove as they continue to climb up the board in Team Total Hits. Unfortunately for Kansas City, negative regression looms large as they face off against the Astros' rotational pitcher Ryan Gusto who excels at avoiding contact. In his nine appearances, Gusto has generated an ERA of 2.93 while averaging less than one Hit Against and more than one Strikeout per Inning Pitched.

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Best YRFI Bets Today

• Miami Marlins vs. Chicago Cubs - Cal Quantrill vs. Colin Rea - With Cal Quantrill averaging an ERA of 7.11 and nearly two runners on base per Inning Pitched, the Miami Marlins pitcher is in for a long night as he faces off against a Chicago Cubs offense who ranks top-9 in Team Total Hits, RBIs, Total Runs Scored, and in On Base Percentage.

• Colorado Rockies vs. Texas Rangers - Chase Dollander vs. Tyler Mahle - After struggling to play at a competitive level since the start of the season, the Texas Rangers top of their order have the opportunity to open up the scoring early on in their contest against Colorado as they face off against Chase Dollander who averages an ERA of 7.71, a WHIP of 1.643, and a FIP of 6.54.

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