Best NRFI Bets Today: Negative Regression Looms Large Over the Athletics Offense

Negative regression looms large over the Athletics top of their order as the A’s kick off Monday’s slate of games with a matchup against Sonny Gray who excels at avoiding contact. Later in the night, we turn our attention towards the Baltimore Orioles and San Diego Padres as a pair of productive pitchers are set to take the mound to battle it out against two offenses who struggle with getting into scoring position.

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Athletics vs. St. Louis Cardinals - Luis Morales vs. Sonny Gray (2:15 PM, EST)

Under 0.5 Run (-130) at Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook

After entering the year projected to field one of the worst offenses in the league, the Athletics lineup have exceeded expectations as they head into Monday’s contest against St. Louis ranked above league average in Contact Rate and in On Base Percentage. Jacob Wilson and Nick Kurtz have played a major role in their resurgence as both rookies generate Hits at a very consistent rate.

Unfortunately for the Athletics, they get the unfortunate task of swinging against Sonny Gray who excels at avoiding contact. As of writing, Gray is averaging less than one Hit Allowed and more than one Strikeout per Inning Pitched. The Cardinals back end also help reduce the amount of contact variance in Gray’s starts with their coverage as their defense ranks top-12 in Fielding Percentage.

On the other side of the field, the Cardinals also draw a tough assignment as they are set to battle it out against Luis Morales who has been dominant in his brief appearances this season. In his five outings, Morales is averaging an ERA of 1.19 and a WHIP of 0.971. Even with his back end struggling in coverage, Morales possesses enough arm talent to neutralize the Cardinals offense as his FIP of 3.08 indicates.

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Baltimore Orioles vs. San Diego Padres - Kyle Bradish vs. Dylan Cease (6:40 PM, EST)

Under 0.5 Run (-125) at Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook

After narrowly winning the Cy Young award in 2022, Dylan Cease has steadily regressed while dealing with a plethora of injuries. In his 2025 campaign, Cease is averaging an ERA of 4.82 and a WHIP of 1.331. While his metrics on the mound look alarming on paper, it is worth noting Cease excels at avoiding contact as he is also averaging less than one Hit Against per Inning Pitched.

Heading into Monday, Cease will have the opportunity to round back into form as he faces off against a Baltimore offense who ranks below league average in Team Total Hits, RBIs, Total Runs Scored, On Base Percentage, and in Slugger Percentage. Especially with his back end excelling in coverage as the Padres defense ranks above league average in Defensive Efficiency and in Fielding Percentage.

As for Kyle Bradish, the Orioles pitcher is also in a position to thrive as he faces off against a Padres lineup who struggles with getting into scoring position. As of writing, the Padres rank in the bottom half of the board in Total Runs Scored and in RBIs. Expect the Padres to continue to struggle with getting on base as Bradish enters the contest averaging an ERA of 3.00 and a WHIP of 0.667.

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Best YRFI Bets Today

• Texas Rangers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks - Patrick Corbin vs. Ryne Nelson - With the Arizona Diamondbacks offense making contact at a high rate, the top of their order will have the opportunity to get into scoring position from the opening pitch as they face off against Patrick Corbin who is averaging an ERA of 4.33 and a WHIP of 1.359.

• San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies - Kai-Wei Teng vs. Chase Dollander - Expect both struggling offenses to round back into competitive form on Monday night as the San Francisco Giants and Colorado Rockies face off against a pair of pitchers who average an ERA higher than 6.50 and nearly two runners on base per inning.

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