Best NRFI Bets Today: Expect Blake Snell to Round Back Into Dominant Form

It was a poor performance from Blake Snell in his last appearance on the mound as he finished game one of the World Series giving up eight Hits and five Earned Runs in a loss to Toronto. An anomaly from the Los Angeles Dodgers pitcher after playing at a high level earlier in the playoffs, especially when he is supported by a back end who thrives in coverage which helps limit the amount of negative variance in the contest.

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Best NRFI Bets for Wednesday, October 29

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Toronto Blue Jays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers - Trey Yesavage vs. Blake Snell (8:00 PM, EST)

Under 0.5 Run (-125) at Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook

Do not let Snell’s severely underwhelming performance in game one of the World Series fool you, the former Cy Young winner has been one of the most dominant pitchers in the league this year as he finished the regular season with an ERA of 2.35 and a WHIP of 2.70. Even though his ERA has ticked up to 2.42 since the start of the playoffs, Snell has actually been even more efficient as his FIP of 2.21 indicates.

While Snell’s FIP in the playoffs is unsustainable, his incredibly high Whiff Rate will help brush aside regression as the Los Angeles Dodgers pitcher is averaging less than one Hit Allowed and more than one Strikeout per Inning Pitched. His back end also helps reduce the amount of contact variance in his starts with their coverage as the Dodgers defense ranks top-10 in Fielding Percentage.

With the Toronto Blue Jays heavily relying on their ability to make contact in order to get on base, expect Snell to keep them out of scoring position which increases his probability of escaping the first inning without giving up a run. Especially when the Blue Jays offense ranks just league average in Bases on Walks, limiting their chances of countering Snell who averages over two Walks per game.

On the other side of the field, the Blue Jays are expected to roll out Trey Yesavage who conceded just four Hits and two Earned Runs while generating five Strikeouts in game one. Yesavage’s latest performance mirrored what he was able to do throughout the regular season as the Blue Jays pitcher ended the year averaging an ERA of 3.21, a FIP of 2.35, and less than one Hit Against per Inning Pitched.

Even with the Dodgers ranking near the top of the board in most key offensive metrics, the high level of play Yesavage receives from his back end will help narrow the gaps in the outfield as the Blue Jays defense ranks above league average in Defensive Efficiency. With less space for them to exploit, expect the Dodgers to get off to a slow start which increases Yesavage’s chances of keeping a clean sheet in the first inning.

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